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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ebay Inc. (XNAS:EBAY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EBAY
Name:
EBAY INC. (XNAS:EBAY)
Sector:
530.00M
Industry:
Internet Retail
CEO:
Mr. Scott Schenkel
Total Employees:
10,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -102.67% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EBAY INC.(EBAY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
44.11
One Month Price Target:
$44.41
Six Month Price Target :
$45.93
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.74
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$43.97
Price Upper limit ($) :
$44.31
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$42.08
This week:
$39.56
This month :
$35.01
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
23.64B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
549.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.78%
-11.72%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.55
$49.20
$34.67
$39.02
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$47.78
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.85
$40.43
$41.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EBAY
Sharpe Ratio:
2.25%
Comparison:
EBAY, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -26.69% lower than the industry
& is -1.37% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EBAY
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.30%
Monthly returns:
1.20%
Yearly returns:
37.29%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -61.39% below industry average
Classification:
EBAY, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.71
Statistical test of Returns:
EBAY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.27%
Weekly Volatility:
5.09%
Monthly Volatility:
10.17%
Yearly Volatility:
35.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.24%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.28% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.61%
Weekly VaR:
-10.31%
Monthly VaR:
-20.62%
How Much Can the price of
EBAY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-71.44%
This translates to price declining to:
$36.37
This translates to price declining to:
$12.60
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EBAY is a 45.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 24.70% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -51.66% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EBAY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.23
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.906
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.281
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.667
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.689
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.419
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.361
Beta is -9.98% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.105
Beta is -41.78% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
153.63%
Sustainable growth rate is 125.00% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.029
Alpha is -85.54% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 182% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EBAY
Equity cost of capital:
0.115
Equity cost of capital is -34.29% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.56%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.44%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.44%
WACC is -31.29% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.69
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.44
Annual revenue growth rate is -11.43% below industry average
EPS:
$17.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-43.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1043.17% higher than the Internet Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.95
-
-
Debt per share
$12.85
EBITDA per share
$21.54
Valuation Analysis Today of
EBAY
P/E Ratio:
253.23
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
43.19
P/E ratio is 486.37% higher than main peers & is 1418.73% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $283.96
EBAY is -84.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $265.62
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.63
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.36
Price to sales ratio is 15.28% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.44
Price to free cash flow: 14.94
Price to free cash flow ratio is -25.05% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
714.70%
Net income growth rate is 951.28% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.11%
Dividend yeild: 1.81%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.80
Expected next dividend best case: $0.24
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.20
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.90%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.22
2021-11-30--$0.18
2021-05-28--$0.18
2022-03-09--$0.22
2021-08-31--$0.18
2021-02-26--$0.18
Dividend growth rate is -141.81% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
100.07%
Net debt to equity ratio:
101.49%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.15%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -53.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
236.72
Interest coverage ratio is 2167.97% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
15.89%
Annual debt growth is -46% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.60%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.534
Statistical significance of correlation:
EBAY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.441
Stock price is 21.14% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.441
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.046
Kurtosis
2.029
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
-0.313
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EBAY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
293%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.02%
Operating profit margin is 239.09% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
293%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.20%
Effective tax rate is 78.90% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
164.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is 736.83% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
50.59%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1616.63% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.48
Current ratio is -25.93% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-29.9
Cash conversion cycle is -145.81% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.95%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
950.5K
Each employee generates 24% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates 483% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates 512% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
49.1K
Each employee generates 3024% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates 3024% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 21.90%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -206.85% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
EBAY
LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. (XNAS:LULU)
ROSS STORES, INC. (XNAS:ROST)
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (XNAS:ORLY)
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:MAR)
Mercado Libre, Inc. (XNAS:MELI)
EXPEDIA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:EXPE)
TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY (XNAS:TSCO)
ETSY, INC. (XNAS:ETSY)
ULTA BEAUTY, INC. (XNAS:ULTA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�42%
Hold�83%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
10.27B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.73B
7.53B
1.32B
901.00M
3.00B
2.10B
433.00M
4.76B
-
50.00M
480.00M
11.84B
2.77B
11.63B
- 1975000.00K
- 320000.00K
11.63B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
118.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 376000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
111.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 272000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.37B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
613.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 83000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
500.00M
Purchases of Investments:
- 5475000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.80B
3.75B
5.55B
710.00M
-
1.09B
7.35B
1.76B
4.14B
-
5.96B
3.22B
543.00M
15.63B
-
22.98B
245.00M
1.90B
827.00M
38.00M
2.80B
4.98B
7.06B
1.18B
10.94B
-
15.93B
2.00M
34.62B
342.0M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
7.49B
7.05B
22.98B
9.71B
8.96B
7.2B
6.83B
3.00M
1.77B
- 750000.00K
1.00M
- 1069000.00K
- 129000.00K
- 5000.00K
- 1952000.00K
- 18000.00K
415.00M
1.82B
1.41B
613.00M
- 83000.00K
530.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EBAY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.98
$804.45
$870.70
$942.40
$1,020.01