_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Eagle Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:EGRX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EGRX
Name:
EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:EGRX)
Sector:
- 16779.00K
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. Scott Tarriff
Total Employees:
102
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 41187.87% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(EGRX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.24
One Month Price Target:
$32.36
Six Month Price Target :
$32.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.43
This week:
$28.2
This month :
$24.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
415.14M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
13.28M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.37%
-14.46%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.63
$36.86
$23.85
$27.62
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.82
$28.84
$29.66
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EGRX
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.20%
Comparison:
EGRX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -341.93% lower than the industry
& is -196.73% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EGRX
Daily returns:
-0.05%
Weekly returns:
-0.25%
Monthly returns:
-1.02%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -185.77% below industry average
Classification:
EGRX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
EGRX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.70%
Weekly Volatility:
6.04%
Monthly Volatility:
12.09%
Yearly Volatility:
41.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -8.93% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.60%
Weekly VaR:
-12.53%
Monthly VaR:
-25.05%
How Much Can the price of
EGRX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-86.79%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.91
This translates to price declining to:
$4.26
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EGRX is a 76.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 51.49% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -28.11% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EGRX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.65
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.532
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.752
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.645
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.579
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.687
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.174
Beta is -44.43% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is -38.11% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.97%
Sustainable growth rate is -90.78% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.198
Alpha is -616.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1260% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EGRX
Equity cost of capital:
0.076
Equity cost of capital is -26.53% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.53%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.86%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.26%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.26%
WACC is -6.19% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.53
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -104.61% below industry average
EPS:
$2.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.19
EBITDA per share
$4.16
Valuation Analysis Today of
EGRX
P/E Ratio:
18.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
510.49
P/E ratio is -96.43% lower than main peers & is -54.34% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $111.09
EGRX is -70.98% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.74
Price to sales ratio is -75.42% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.98
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-101.66%
Net income growth rate is -81.44% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.19%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-19.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.80%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-13.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.45% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
70.05
Interest coverage ratio is 907.92% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-22.72%
Annual debt growth is -445% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 43.83%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.403
Statistical significance of correlation:
EGRX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is -1.32% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.005
Kurtosis
4.458
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.048
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EGRX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
304%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
26.96%
Operating profit margin is -180.18% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
304%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.09%
Effective tax rate is -83.98% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
23.47%
Return on equity (ROE) is -335.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.83%
Return on assets (ROA) is -524.34% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.36
Current ratio is -28.28% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
15.5
Cash conversion cycle is -89.74% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
8.47%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.4M
Each employee generates 187% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
541.8K
Each employee generates 472% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
497.0K
Each employee generates 384% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 164.5K
Each employee generates 187% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
784.3K
Each employee generates 187% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 66.56%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 913.97% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
EGRX
Surmodics, Inc. (XNAS:SRDX)
Precigen, Inc. (XNAS:PGEN)
Kinnate Biopharma Inc (XNAS:KNTE)
ADAGIO THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ADGI)
GRAPHITE BIO, INC. (XNAS:GRPH)
HUMACYTE, INC (XNAS:HUMA)
CUTERA, INC. (XNAS:CUTR)
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (XNAS:COLL)
IMAGO BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:IMGO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
246.17M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
59.08M
187.09M
43.10M
-
77.63M
-
12.31M
133.03M
679.00K
789.00K
2.71M
55.27M
66.37M
50.69M
51.77M
1.08M
50.69M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
908.00K
Differed Income Tax :
- 2432.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.30M
Change in Working Capital :
- 65761.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 89710.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 342.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.32M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 16611.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 168.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
69.52M
-
69.52M
136.83M
24.82M
8.99M
240.17M
1.63M
39.74M
9.94M
-
21.23M
7.46M
80.00M
-
320.17M
14.51M
25.06M
15.09M
-
62.07M
101.64M
2.56M
-
2.56M
-
104.21M
17.00K
119.92M
418.0K
95.61M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
192.11M
215.96M
320.17M
-
27.63M
- 41897.0K
-
-
- 168.00K
- 2000.00K
-
- 8053.00K
-
- 1305.00K
- 11358.00K
-
- 28137.00K
69.52M
97.66M
- 16611.00K
- 168.00K
- 16779.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EGRX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$33.82
$405.53
$423.31
$441.86
$461.23