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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (XNAS:EGLE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EGLE
Name:
EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. (XNAS:EGLE)
Sector:
38.32M
Industry:
Marine Shipping
CEO:
Mr. Gary Vogel
Total Employees:
1,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC.(EGLE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MARINE SHIPPING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
43.52
One Month Price Target:
$43.86
Six Month Price Target :
$45.56
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$43.24
Price Upper limit ($) :
$43.95
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$39.34
This week:
$34.17
This month :
$24.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
572.43M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
13.69M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.01%
-23.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.90
$53.93
$24.14
$33.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$51.00
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.09
$36.01
$37.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EGLE
Sharpe Ratio:
3.37%
Comparison:
EGLE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 0.00% lower than the industry
& ratio is 47.94% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EGLE
Daily returns:
0.17%
Weekly returns:
0.85%
Monthly returns:
3.39%
Yearly returns:
40.64%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 0.00% below industry average
Classification:
EGLE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
EGLE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.76%
Weekly Volatility:
10.64%
Monthly Volatility:
21.28%
Yearly Volatility:
73.73%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.07%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -14.47% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.61%
Weekly VaR:
-21.48%
Monthly VaR:
-42.96%
How Much Can the price of
EGLE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$27.83
This translates to price declining to:
$6.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EGLE is a 203.18% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 159.74% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EGLE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.40
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.82
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.159
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.822
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.086
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.439
Beta is -2.95% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.396
Beta is 0.00% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.80%
Sustainable growth rate is 0.00% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.279
Alpha is 0.00% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1778% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EGLE
Equity cost of capital:
0.127
Equity cost of capital is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.53%
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.53%
WACC is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$49.84
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.86
FALSE
EPS:
$14.17
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.95
-
-
Debt per share
$24.34
EBITDA per share
$23.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
EGLE
P/E Ratio:
2.27
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.91
P/E ratio is -92.16% lower than main peers & is -67.30% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $98.25
EGLE is -55.70% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $73.09
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $47.71
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.87
Price to sales ratio is -37.37% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.86
Price to free cash flow: 6.26
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1097.12%
Net income growth rate is 0.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.76%
Dividend yeild: 13.90%
Previous Dividend: $2.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $2.00
Previous Dividend: $6.05
Expected next dividend best case: $2.12
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.88
Average dividend payment (long-term): $2.02
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.03%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$2.00
2021-11-12--$2.00
--$0.00
2022-03-14--$2.05
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
48.04%
Net debt to equity ratio:
45.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.67%
Net debt to assets ratio:
27.12%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -39.94% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.38
Interest coverage ratio is 121.90% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-70.64%
Annual debt growth is 0% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.60%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.386
Statistical significance of correlation:
EGLE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.386
Stock price is 0.00% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.386
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.046
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.126
Kurtosis
3.677
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.158
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EGLE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
244%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
45.13%
Operating profit margin is 124.44% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
244%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
32.88%
Return on equity (ROE) is 75.75% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
19.62%
Return on assets (ROA) is 133.91% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.37
Current ratio is 11.13% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-9.4
Cash conversion cycle is -124.13% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.65%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
682.4K
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
317.7K
Each employee generates 0% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
228.1K
Each employee generates 0% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
38.3K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
977.4K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EGLE
THCAW
DXP ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:DXPE)
RADA ELECTRONIC INDUSTRIES LTD (XNAS:RADA)
Air T Funding (XNAS:AIRTP)
NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:NSSC)
TITAN MACHINERY INC. (XNAS:TITN)
CRA INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:CRAI)
Tecnoglass Inc (XNYS:TGLS)
CROSS COUNTRY HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:CCRN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
682.36M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
259.01M
423.36M
-
37.52M
37.52M
-
81.82M
119.34M
41.36K
27.92M
61.63M
317.67M
307.98M
228.12M
228.12M
-
228.12M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
17.40M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.49M
Change in Working Capital :
- 33830.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 12462.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 5819.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.12M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
42.25M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3937.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
83.60M
-
83.60M
40.92M
27.77M
32.90M
185.19M
919.94M
-
-
-
-
57.46M
977.40M
-
1.16B
23.40M
65.55M
-
12.75M
33.44M
135.13M
333.29M
395.00K
333.69M
-
468.82M
130.00K
- 278858.00K
10.6M
961.93M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
286.41M
693.77M
1.16B
-
398.84M
315.2M
-
-
- 3937.00K
- 12450.00K
-
-
- 26818.00K
- 1594.00K
- 40862.00K
-
- 2545.00K
83.68M
86.22M
42.25M
- 3937.00K
38.32M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EGLE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.84
$153.34
$167.73
$183.46
$200.68