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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Eagle Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:EGBN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EGBN
Name:
EAGLE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EGBN)
Sector:
60.58M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Ms. Susan Riel
Total Employees:
507
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 177.31% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EAGLE BANCORP, INC.(EGBN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
48
One Month Price Target:
$48.25
Six Month Price Target :
$49.47
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$50.95
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.8
Price Upper limit ($) :
$48.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$45.29
This week:
$41.94
This month :
$35.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.50B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.08M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.08%
-14.44%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.57
$54.80
$35.43
$41.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$52.93
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.70
$43.06
$44.30
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EGBN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.36%
Comparison:
EGBN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 10.70% higher than the industry
& is -40.34% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EGBN
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.93%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 2.31% above industry average
Classification:
EGBN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
EGBN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.77%
Weekly Volatility:
6.19%
Monthly Volatility:
12.39%
Yearly Volatility:
42.91%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.51%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -81.74% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.64%
Weekly VaR:
-12.62%
Monthly VaR:
-25.23%
How Much Can the price of
EGBN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-87.41%
This translates to price declining to:
$37.54
This translates to price declining to:
$6.05
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EGBN is a 78.09% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 52.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.04% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EGBN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.685
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.968
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.861
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.638
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.837
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.722
Beta is 26.43% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -5.22% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.05%
Sustainable growth rate is 10.14% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.018
Alpha is 51.46% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 112% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EGBN
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -3.54% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.87%
Before-tax cost of debt:
14.32%
After-tax cost of debt:
11.31%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
11.31%
WACC is -17.75% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.21
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.2
Annual revenue growth rate is -49.06% below industry average
EPS:
$5.58
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.71%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -19.22% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$8.72
-
-
Debt per share
$3.23
EBITDA per share
$8.77
Valuation Analysis Today of
EGBN
P/E Ratio:
10.49
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.47
P/E ratio is -51.12% lower than main peers & is -15.42% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $69.24
EGBN is -30.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $123.57
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $63.27
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.28
Price to sales ratio is 0.15% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.2
Price to free cash flow: 5.51
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
24.25%
Net income growth rate is -55.96% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.08%
Dividend yeild: 3.23%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.55
Expected next dividend best case: $0.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.33
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.79%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-08--$0.40
2021-10-20--$0.40
2021-04-20--$0.25
2022-01-18--$0.40
2021-07-21--$0.35
2021-01-07--$0.22
Dividend growth rate is -71.18% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
8.10%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-34.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.92%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.45% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.75
Interest coverage ratio is 834.68% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 59.14%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.582
Statistical significance of correlation:
EGBN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 16.20% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.042
Kurtosis
4.691
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.157
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EGBN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
25.22%
Effective tax rate is 17.04% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.99%
Return on equity (ROE) is 17.24% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.59%
Return on assets (ROA) is -30.83% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.66%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
709.2K
Each employee generates 87% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
554.8K
Each employee generates 146% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
353.0K
Each employee generates 149% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
119.5K
Each employee generates 44% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
6.1M
Each employee generates 44% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EGBN
VERITEX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VBTX)
PALOMAR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:PLMR)
NORTHWEST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:NWBI)
PRA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PRAA)
EHEALTH, INC. (XNAS:EHTH)
NBT BANCORP INC. (XNAS:NBTB)
CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CFFN)
LAKELAND FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:LKFN)
HOPE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HOPE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
359.57M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
99.95M
104.29M
4.34M
-
-
358.62M
36.31M
5.64M
281.27M
-
178.97M
239.32M
60.36M
178.97M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
843.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.97M
Change in Working Capital :
- 10981.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 626.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
22.28M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
60.85M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 548741.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
695.02M
1.78B
2.47B
-
-
-
-
42.98M
-
-
2.93B
-
-
3.08B
14.30B
11.23B
-
150.00M
-
-
-
150.00M
103.64M
-
103.64M
9.90B
9.95B
318.00K
963.14M
- 121724.0K
437.82M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.28B
11.23B
4.70B
253.64M
- 441387.0K
94.82M
- 43810.00K
- 497728.00K
- 150000.00K
-
-
- 12665.00K
- 392299.00K
- 554964.00K
-
- 991840.00K
722.38M
1.71B
60.85M
- 269.00K
60.58M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EGBN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$51.20
$85.72
$90.98
$96.57
$102.49