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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Dynavax Technologies Corporation (XNAS:DVAX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DVAX
Name:
DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNAS:DVAX)
Sector:
- 51801.00K
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. Ryan Spencer
Total Employees:
311
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 4951.12% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION(DVAX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.21
One Month Price Target:
$11.29
Six Month Price Target :
$11.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$12.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.12
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.36
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.81
This week:
$8.08
This month :
$4.94
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.36B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
126.47M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
62.76%
-22.16%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.71
$14.69
$4.71
$7.73
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$13.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.06
$8.71
$9.36
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DVAX
Sharpe Ratio:
4.01%
Comparison:
DVAX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 340.05% higher than the industry
& ratio is 75.95% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DVAX
Daily returns:
0.26%
Weekly returns:
1.29%
Monthly returns:
5.16%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 336.08% above industry average
Classification:
DVAX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.63
Statistical test of Returns:
DVAX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.21%
Weekly Volatility:
13.89%
Monthly Volatility:
27.79%
Yearly Volatility:
96.26%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -56.71% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-12.50%
Weekly VaR:
-27.96%
Monthly VaR:
-55.91%
How Much Can the price of
DVAX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.00
This translates to price declining to:
$1.68
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DVAX is a 294.64% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 238.09% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 65.25% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DVAX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.34
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.902
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.275
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.709
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.248
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.778
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.529
Beta is -12.11% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is 27.48% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.496
Alpha is 1193.75% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3156% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DVAX
Equity cost of capital:
0.124
Equity cost of capital is 19.13% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.16%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.49%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.49%
WACC is 28.90% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.72
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.93
Annual revenue growth rate is 1515.06% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.52
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.86
-
-
Debt per share
$2.02
EBITDA per share
$0.97
Valuation Analysis Today of
DVAX
P/E Ratio:
8.36
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
178.46
P/E ratio is -95.32% lower than main peers & is -79.08% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $20.78
DVAX is -46.05% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.02
Price to sales ratio is -57.40% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.93
Price to free cash flow: 6.04
Price to free cash flow ratio is -70.63% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-129.88%
Net income growth rate is -76.29% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
88.70%
Net debt to equity ratio:
27.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.27%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.79%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.96% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
15.1
Interest coverage ratio is 117.32% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
39.19%
Annual debt growth is 495% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.296
Statistical significance of correlation:
DVAX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is -27.48% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.054
Kurtosis
17.817
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.122
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DVAX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
243%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
29.08%
Operating profit margin is -186.49% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
243%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.74%
Effective tax rate is -105.67% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
37.80%
Return on equity (ROE) is -480.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.77%
Return on assets (ROA) is -388.68% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.02
Current ratio is -38.77% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
135.8
Cash conversion cycle is -10.23% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates 80% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
395.5K
Each employee generates 318% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
349.5K
Each employee generates 240% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 166.6K
Each employee generates 191% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
220.1K
Each employee generates 191% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 12.66%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 92.83% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
DVAX
CNST
HESKA CORPORATION (XNAS:HSKA)
IVERIC bio, Inc. (XNAS:ISEE)
Cue Health Inc (XNAS:HLTH)
CODEXIS, INC. (XNAS:CDXS)
SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:SUPN)
PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTGX)
XENON PHARMACEUTICALS INC. (XNAS:XENE)
ERASCA, INC. (XNAS:ERAS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�21%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
470.10M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
188.91M
281.19M
35.57M
109.91M
109.91M
-
-
145.47M
354.00K
8.14M
6.98M
123.00M
136.72M
108.68M
109.49M
- 808.00K
108.68M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.73M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.65M
Change in Working Capital :
- 92374.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 36661.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 302.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 50443.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1358.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 250375.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
179.42M
323.80M
503.22M
136.94M
79.04M
221.33M
940.52M
62.72M
2.08M
-
-
-
3.66M
68.46M
-
1.01B
20.19M
2.97M
-
313.20M
129.84M
466.20M
255.01M
276.00K
255.29M
-
721.49M
126.00K
- 1184492.00K
- 4163.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
334.38M
287.48M
1.01B
-
257.98M
78.6M
35.25M
-
- 216483.00K
-
-
-
-
10.29M
10.29M
- 134.00K
- 256773.00K
179.64M
436.41M
- 50443.00K
- 1358.00K
- 51801.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DVAX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$12.28
$34.81
$37.95
$41.38
$45.11