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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Duluth Holdings Inc. (XNAS:DLTH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DLTH
Name:
DULUTH HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DLTH)
Sector:
10.39M
Industry:
Apparel Retail
CEO:
Mr. Stephen Schlecht
Total Employees:
1,106
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -9.61% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DULUTH HOLDINGS INC.(DLTH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.91
One Month Price Target:
$7.95
Six Month Price Target :
$8.14
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.86
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$7.25
This week:
$6.43
This month :
$4.95
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
259.68M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.38M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.83%
-17.28%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.98
$9.58
$4.84
$6.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$9.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.82
$6.70
$7.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DLTH
Sharpe Ratio:
0.97%
Comparison:
DLTH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 40.53% higher than the industry
& is -57.26% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DLTH
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.24%
Monthly returns:
0.98%
Yearly returns:
8.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 32.08% above industry average
Classification:
DLTH, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
DLTH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.10%
Weekly Volatility:
9.16%
Monthly Volatility:
18.33%
Yearly Volatility:
63.50%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.83%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -6.53% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.37%
Weekly VaR:
-18.71%
Monthly VaR:
-37.43%
How Much Can the price of
DLTH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.34
This translates to price declining to:
$1.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DLTH is a 164.16% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 126.30% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.62% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DLTH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.87
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.231
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.536
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.524
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.84
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.386
Beta is -36.63% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.366
Beta is -35.73% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.09%
Sustainable growth rate is -58.15% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.025
Alpha is -169.67% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 162% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DLTH
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is -26.73% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.59%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.11%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.67%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.67%
WACC is -12.86% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$20.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.38
Annual revenue growth rate is 278.89% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.85
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.23%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -65.53% lower than the Apparel Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.08
-
-
Debt per share
$5.13
EBITDA per share
$3.60
Valuation Analysis Today of
DLTH
P/E Ratio:
12.26
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
110.99
P/E ratio is -88.95% lower than main peers & is -10.80% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $11.68
DLTH is -32.30% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.38
Price to sales ratio is -55.74% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.38
Price to free cash flow: 7.35
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-42.92%
Net income growth rate is -30.73% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
88.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
91.19%
Debt to assets ratio:
35.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.76%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -44.82% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
28.04
Interest coverage ratio is -87.63% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
102.23%
Annual debt growth is -61% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 15.49%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.292
Statistical significance of correlation:
DLTH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.453
Stock price is -35.48% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.453
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.031
Kurtosis
4.409
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.629
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DLTH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
221%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.00%
Operating profit margin is -19.14% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
221%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.57%
Effective tax rate is 4.57% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.34%
Return on equity (ROE) is -65.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.78%
Return on assets (ROA) is -44.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.67
Current ratio is -4.33% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-17.7
Cash conversion cycle is -136.90% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.33%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
622.1K
Each employee generates 59% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
108.6K
Each employee generates 121% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
25.2K
Each employee generates -1% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.4K
Each employee generates 41% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
269.1K
Each employee generates 41% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DLTH
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (XNAS:BLBD)
EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC (XNAS:LOCO)
MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MCFT)
GOLDEN NUGGET ONLINE GAMING, INC.. (XNAS:GNOG)
DEL TACO RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNAS:TACO)
KURA SUSHI USA, INC. (XNAS:KRUS)
FOSSIL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:FOSL)
UFP TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:UFPT)
Smart Share Global Limited (XNAS:EM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/1/22
Revenue:
688.07M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
310.23M
377.84M
-
-
336.57M
-
-
336.57M
-
4.29M
77.79M
120.16M
41.27M
27.86M
37.07M
10.22M
27.86M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.27M
Differed Income Tax :
- 16.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
371.00K
Change in Working Capital :
4.25M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 21.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
12.42M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2033.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/2/21
2022
Q1
26.05M
-
26.05M
2.56M
146.26M
9.71M
184.58M
287.17M
402.00K
260.00K
6.35M
-
3.41M
297.59M
-
482.16M
40.09M
32.03M
7.68M
8.59M
30.00M
110.71M
171.26M
-
179.51M
-
290.22M
93.38M
101.71M
250.0K
- 986.00K
May 2, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
646.80M
194.35M
484.57M
-
203.29M
177.2M
35.00K
24.00K
- 1974.00K
- 31391.00K
-
-
-
- 225.00K
- 31616.00K
-
- 21167.00K
26.05M
47.22M
12.42M
- 2033.00K
10.39M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DLTH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$8.42
$35.29
$37.37
$39.58
$41.91