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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Duke Realty Corporation (XNYS:DRE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DRE
Name:
DUKE REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:DRE)
Sector:
142.33M
Industry:
REIT�Industrial
CEO:
Mr. James Connor
Total Employees:
340
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -4.36% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DUKE REALTY CORPORATION(DRE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
57.71
One Month Price Target:
$57.95
Six Month Price Target :
$59.13
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$60.55
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$57.56
Price Upper limit ($) :
$57.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$55.22
This week:
$52.15
This month :
$46.58
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
22.55B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
384.99M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.18%
-17.97%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$69.24
$63.87
$46.18
$51.55
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$62.13
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.98
$53.28
$54.44
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DRE
Sharpe Ratio:
4.09%
Comparison:
DRE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 69.04% higher than the industry
& ratio is 79.56% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DRE
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.48%
Monthly returns:
1.93%
Yearly returns:
14.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 64.97% above industry average
Classification:
DRE, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.58
Statistical test of Returns:
DRE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.15%
Weekly Volatility:
4.80%
Monthly Volatility:
9.60%
Yearly Volatility:
33.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.71%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.31%
Weekly VaR:
-9.64%
Monthly VaR:
-19.28%
How Much Can the price of
DRE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-66.78%
This translates to price declining to:
$48.51
This translates to price declining to:
$19.17
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DRE is a 36.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 16.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.49% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DRE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.73
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.617
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.872
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.464
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.758
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.849
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.883
Beta is -17.17% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.735
Beta is -0.53% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.95%
Sustainable growth rate is 73.28% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.150
Alpha is 155.90% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 958% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DRE
Equity cost of capital:
0.082
Equity cost of capital is -0.33% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.18%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.26%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.78%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.78%
WACC is 8.19% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.84
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.51
Annual revenue growth rate is -37.69% below industry average
EPS:
$2.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
24.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 168.42% higher than the REIT�Industrial industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.64
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 27.60%
Equity growth rate per share is 124.56% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$9.48
EBITDA per share
$3.71
Valuation Analysis Today of
DRE
P/E Ratio:
23.27
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
162.28
P/E ratio is -85.66% lower than main peers & is -65.43% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $180.42
DRE is -68.01% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $69.86
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.62
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
20.29
Price to sales ratio is 51.55% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.51
Price to free cash flow: 35.27
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
109.58%
Net income growth rate is 485.13% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.48%
Dividend yeild: 1.90%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.10
Expected next dividend best case: $0.30
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.26
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.25
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.83%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.28
2021-11-15--$0.28
2021-05-13--$0.26
2022-02-15--$0.28
2021-08-13--$0.26
2021-02-12--$0.26
Dividend growth rate is -119.91% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
58.63%
Net debt to equity ratio:
58.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
34.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -79.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.36
Interest coverage ratio is -34605.99% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
8.99%
Annual debt growth is -18% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.09%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.731
Statistical significance of correlation:
DRE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.617
Stock price is 18.45% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.617
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.023
Kurtosis
15.104
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.124
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DRE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
296%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
106.56%
Operating profit margin is 231.50% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
296%
Effective Tax Rate:
1.87%
Effective tax rate is 263.10% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.42%
Return on equity (ROE) is 97.65% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.66%
Return on assets (ROA) is 148.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
2.85
Current ratio is -1.81% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-2.9
Cash conversion cycle is -115.86% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
3.2M
Each employee generates 96% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
4.2M
Each employee generates 200% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.0M
Each employee generates 345% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
418.6K
Each employee generates 117% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
29.4M
Each employee generates 117% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DRE
SUN COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:SUI)
ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:ESS)
VENTAS, INC. (XNYS:VTR)
MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:MAA)
INVITATION HOMES INC. (XNYS:INVH)
BOSTON PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:BXP)
HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:PEAK)
UDR, INC. (XNYS:UDR)
VICI PROPERTIES INC. (XNYS:VICI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�42%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.09B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
285.40M
809.39M
-
69.25M
69.25M
-
381.67M
450.92M
4.81M
82.34M
304.90M
1.43B
1.17B
1.02B
1.05B
19.70M
1.02B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
79.02M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 9368.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 178797.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
142.33M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
23.09M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
9.16M
-
9.16M
235.79M
-
331.43M
576.37M
-
-
-
208.64M
-
9.80B
10.01B
-
10.59B
99.60M
-
81.49M
-
102.38M
201.99M
3.65B
399.83M
4.05B
-
4.25B
3.84M
65.97M
- 27122.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
736.32M
6.23B
10.48B
-
3.65B
3.6B
-
- 126850.00K
- 103758.00K
- 321174.00K
40.58M
-
- 107175.00K
267.74M
- 120032.00K
-
- 81456.00K
21.71M
103.16M
142.33M
-
142.33M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DRE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$60.85
$201.43
$211.33
$221.72
$232.62