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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Duke Energy Corporation (XNYS:DUK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DUK
Name:
DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:DUK)
Sector:
975.00M
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Electric
CEO:
Ms. Lynn Good
Total Employees:
27,605
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 14.90% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION(DUK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED ELECTRIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
107
One Month Price Target:
$107.21
Six Month Price Target :
$108.27
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$109.54
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$106.72
Price Upper limit ($) :
$107.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$103.09
This week:
$98.26
This month :
$89.52
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
82.20B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
769.97M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.3%
-11.5%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$125.13
$116.79
$88.87
$97.21
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$114.07
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$112.29
$99.91
$101.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DUK
Sharpe Ratio:
1.90%
Comparison:
DUK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 61.85% higher than the industry
& is -16.81% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DUK
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.86%
Yearly returns:
7.85%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 31.41% above industry average
Classification:
DUK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
DUK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.80%
Weekly Volatility:
4.02%
Monthly Volatility:
8.05%
Yearly Volatility:
27.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.17% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.65%
Weekly VaR:
-8.17%
Monthly VaR:
-16.33%
How Much Can the price of
DUK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-56.58%
This translates to price declining to:
$92.07
This translates to price declining to:
$46.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DUK is a 15.29% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -1.23% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.33% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DUK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.509
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.72
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.157
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.443
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.718
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.486
Beta is -27.41% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.5
Beta is -29.32% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.17%
Sustainable growth rate is -95.08% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.047
Alpha is 272.00% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 302% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DUK
Equity cost of capital:
0.056
Equity cost of capital is -15.27% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.48%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.62%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.62%
WACC is -17.07% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$33.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.67
Annual revenue growth rate is 378.25% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.77
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.86%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -86.03% lower than the Utilities�Regulated Electric industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$11.94
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -1804.14% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$82.16
EBITDA per share
$13.43
Valuation Analysis Today of
DUK
P/E Ratio:
21.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.63
P/E ratio is -12.40% lower than main peers & is -22.07% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $132.07
DUK is -18.98% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $98.87
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $76.85
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.16
Price to sales ratio is 8.82% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.67
Price to free cash flow: 8.96
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
34.96%
Net income growth rate is -1286.85% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 3.68%
Previous Dividend: $0.99
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.99
Previous Dividend: $3.94
Expected next dividend best case: $1.00
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.97
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.97
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.42%
Expected next dividend payment date: 14/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.99
2021-11-10--$0.99
2021-05-13--$0.97
2022-02-17--$0.99
2021-08-12--$0.99
2021-02-11--$0.97
Dividend growth rate is -142.00% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
127.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
140.67%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.95%
Net debt to assets ratio:
40.62%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.21% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.43
Interest coverage ratio is 72.16% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
6.46%
Annual debt growth is -86% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.623
Statistical significance of correlation:
DUK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.597
Stock price is 4.33% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.597
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.037
Kurtosis
12.387
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.222
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DUK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
211%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
19.95%
Operating profit margin is 71.45% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
211%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.65%
Effective tax rate is -86.83% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.55%
Return on equity (ROE) is -16.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.18%
Return on assets (ROA) is -5.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.72
Current ratio is -70.09% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-148.7
Cash conversion cycle is -257.39% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
944.7K
Each employee generates -66% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
374.5K
Each employee generates -68% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
135.3K
Each employee generates -67% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
35.3K
Each employee generates -207% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
5.8M
Each employee generates -207% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DUK
THE SOUTHERN COMPANY (XNYS:SO)
DUK-PA
Dominion Energy, Inc. (XNYS:D)
NATIONAL GRID PLC (XNYS:NGG)
AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:AEP)
SEMPRA ENERGY (XNYS:SRE)
PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INCORPORATED (XNYS:PEG)
AMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:AWK)
Eversource Energy (XNYS:ES)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�50%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
26.08B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
12.18B
13.90B
-
-
-
-
10.66B
10.66B
-
2.33B
4.18B
10.34B
5.20B
3.73B
3.55B
94.00M
3.73B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
81.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 51000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
155.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 5000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 30000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
975.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
853.00M
-
853.00M
1.15B
3.17B
5.87B
11.04B
113.57B
19.30B
-
976.00M
-
26.33B
160.18B
-
171.22B
3.18B
7.15B
-
-
5.10B
15.43B
63.26B
-
72.94B
179.29B
121.77B
1.00M
3.32B
- 204000.0K
46.33B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
22.83B
49.45B
171.22B
-
70.41B
69.6B
-
- 2699000.00K
- 2699000.00K
-
-
-
-
1.40B
1.40B
-
500.00M
1.02B
520.00M
975.00M
- 210000.00K
975.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DUK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$123.09
$126.01
$129.00
$132.06
$135.20