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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Dte Energy Company (XNYS:DTE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DTE
Name:
DTE ENERGY COMPANY (XNYS:DTE)
Sector:
808.00M
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Electric
CEO:
Mr. Gerardo Norcia
Total Employees:
10,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -16.36% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DTE ENERGY COMPANY(DTE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED ELECTRIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
131.14
One Month Price Target:
$131.59
Six Month Price Target :
$133.84
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$136.53
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$130.76
Price Upper limit ($) :
$131.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$125.76
This week:
$119.12
This month :
$107.1
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
25.42B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
193.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.64%
-13.91%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$156.08
$144.59
$106.20
$117.69
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$140.85
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$138.40
$121.40
$123.88
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DTE
Sharpe Ratio:
2.07%
Comparison:
DTE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 76.91% higher than the industry
& is -9.07% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DTE
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
1.01%
Yearly returns:
7.85%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 55.13% above industry average
Classification:
DTE, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
DTE has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.02%
Weekly Volatility:
4.52%
Monthly Volatility:
9.04%
Yearly Volatility:
31.30%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.54%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -23.57% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.10%
Weekly VaR:
-9.17%
Monthly VaR:
-18.33%
How Much Can the price of
DTE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-63.50%
This translates to price declining to:
$110.64
This translates to price declining to:
$47.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DTE is a 29.38% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 10.84% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.43% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DTE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.519
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.734
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.124
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.549
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.835
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.525
Beta is 16.62% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.5
Beta is 22.50% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.54%
Sustainable growth rate is -84.44% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.048
Alpha is 278.91% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 308% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DTE
Equity cost of capital:
0.073
Equity cost of capital is 11.71% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
267.62%
After-tax cost of debt:
211.42%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
211.42%
WACC is 63.32% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$59.83
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.87
Annual revenue growth rate is 4.05% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-13.50%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 118.33% higher than the Utilities�Regulated Electric industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.65%
Equity growth rate per share is 234.83% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$15.07
Valuation Analysis Today of
DTE
P/E Ratio:
32.27
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
44.17
P/E ratio is -26.94% lower than main peers & is 16.56% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $128.47
DTE is 2.08% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $56.46
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $41.24
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.19
Price to sales ratio is -24.49% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.87
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -67.87% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-24.05%
Net income growth rate is 716.60% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 18.92%
Dividend yeild: 2.65%
Previous Dividend: $0.89
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.89
Previous Dividend: $3.48
Expected next dividend best case: $0.97
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.80
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.95
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -1.01%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 19/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.89
2021-12-17--$0.89
2021-07-01--$0.83
2022-03-18--$0.89
2021-09-17--$0.83
2021-06-18--$0.92
Dividend growth rate is 1.00% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
355.86%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1.06%
Debt to assets ratio:
78.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 24.21% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.47
Interest coverage ratio is 73.62% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-7.13%
Annual debt growth is -116% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.672
Statistical significance of correlation:
DTE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.597
Stock price is 12.53% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.597
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.038
Kurtosis
13.994
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.666
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DTE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
69%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.67%
Operating profit margin is 26.06% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
69%
Effective Tax Rate:
-10.34%
Effective tax rate is -151.37% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.20%
Return on equity (ROE) is 12.20% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is -3.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.6x
Current Ratio:
1.47
Current ratio is -38.40% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-64.7
Cash conversion cycle is -168.48% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -59% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
283.4K
Each employee generates -76% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
87.8K
Each employee generates -78% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
78.4K
Each employee generates -338% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.9M
Each employee generates -338% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DTE
FIRSTENERGY CORP. (XNYS:FE)
AMEREN CORPORATION (XNYS:AEE)
PPL CORPORATION (XNYS:PPL)
Fortis Inc. (XNYS:FTS)
EDISON INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:EIX)
Avangrid, Inc. (XNYS:AGR)
PG&E CORPORATION (XNYS:PCG)
CMS ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:CMS)
BIP
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
11.59B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
11.93B
- 336000.00K
-
-
-
-
- 2114000.00K
- 2114000.00K
27.00M
653.00M
1.45B
2.92B
1.70B
904.00M
841.00M
- 87000.00K
904.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
358.00M
Differed Income Tax :
18.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
3.82B
Accounts Receivables:
18.00M
Other Working Capital:
790.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3781000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
808.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 1000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
150.00M
174.00M
324.00M
1.63B
503.00M
-
2.46B
37.70B
1.99B
175.00M
-
-
-
39.87B
-
40.36B
1.32B
345.00M
-
-
-
1.67B
-
27.60B
29.83B
-
31.50B
5.31B
3.66B
- 109000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
9.81B
8.86B
40.36B
-
244.00M
94.0M
-
- 781000.00K
- 782000.00K
-
-
- 55000.00K
- 171000.00K
321.00M
95.00M
-
121.00M
156.00M
35.00M
808.00M
-
808.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DTE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$162.03
$168.70
$175.64
$182.86
$190.38