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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Dover Corporation (XNYS:DOV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DOV
Name:
DOVER CORPORATION (XNYS:DOV)
Sector:
- 26698.00K
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Richard Tobin
Total Employees:
25,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -7.24% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DOVER CORPORATION(DOV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
127.97
One Month Price Target:
$128.96
Six Month Price Target :
$133.91
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$139.85
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$127.56
Price Upper limit ($) :
$128.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$122.43
This week:
$115.59
This month :
$103.21
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
18.42B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
143.55M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.33%
-16.31%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$153.66
$141.87
$102.28
$114.07
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$138.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$135.51
$117.88
$120.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DOV
Sharpe Ratio:
1.50%
Comparison:
DOV, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -20.83% lower than the industry
& is -34.19% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DOV
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.20%
Monthly returns:
0.82%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -39.81% below industry average
Classification:
DOV, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.82
Statistical test of Returns:
DOV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.13%
Weekly Volatility:
4.76%
Monthly Volatility:
9.51%
Yearly Volatility:
32.95%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.11%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -0.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.33%
Weekly VaR:
-9.68%
Monthly VaR:
-19.35%
How Much Can the price of
DOV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-67.04%
This translates to price declining to:
$106.67
This translates to price declining to:
$42.18
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DOV is a 36.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.01% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -22.26% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DOV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.38
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.014
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.434
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.888
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.787
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.858
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.207
Beta is 14.47% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is 7.78% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.89%
Sustainable growth rate is 47.04% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.028
Alpha is -165.50% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -180% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DOV
Equity cost of capital:
0.126
Equity cost of capital is 5.72% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.43%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.71%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.71%
WACC is -74.96% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$56.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.24
Annual revenue growth rate is -13.36% below industry average
EPS:
$7.69
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
18.34%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 501.44% higher than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.31
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 5.32%
Equity growth rate per share is -50.74% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$20.77
EBITDA per share
$12.46
Valuation Analysis Today of
DOV
P/E Ratio:
16.27
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.79
P/E ratio is -39.27% lower than main peers & is -40.87% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $211.58
DOV is -39.52% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.79
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $16.15
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.27
Price to sales ratio is -45.28% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.24
Price to free cash flow: 24.11
Price to free cash flow ratio is -12.11% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
105.14%
Net income growth rate is 7711.36% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.46%
Dividend yeild: 1.56%
Previous Dividend: $0.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.50
Previous Dividend: $2.00
Expected next dividend best case: $0.50
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.50
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.50
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.20%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/04/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/06/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.50
2021-11-29--$0.50
2021-05-27--$0.50
2022-02-25--$0.50
2021-08-30--$0.50
2021-02-25--$0.50
Dividend growth rate is -94.26% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
68.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
64.79%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.40%
Net debt to assets ratio:
26.72%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -47.37% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.87
Interest coverage ratio is -13.58% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-5.08%
Annual debt growth is -107% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.815
Statistical significance of correlation:
DOV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is 28.26% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.029
Kurtosis
12.324
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.652
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DOV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
148%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.68%
Operating profit margin is -164.73% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
148%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.47%
Effective tax rate is 4.18% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.80%
Return on equity (ROE) is 667.93% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.64%
Return on assets (ROA) is 126.69% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.44
Current ratio is -52.38% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
4.5
Cash conversion cycle is -92.61% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.99%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
323.6K
Each employee generates -92% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
71.5K
Each employee generates -90% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
44.7K
Each employee generates -89% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.1K
Each employee generates -102% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
290.7K
Each employee generates -102% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DOV
DELTA AIR LINES, INC. (XNYS:DAL)
W.W. GRAINGER, INC. (XNYS:GWW)
KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN (XMEX:KSU*)
INGERSOLL RAND INC. (XNYS:IR)
UNITED RENTALS, INC. (XNYS:URI)
ZTO EXPRESS (CAYMAN) INC. (XNYS:ZTO)
CNH Industrial NV (XNYS:CNHI)
STANLEY BLACK & DECKER, INC. (XNYS:SWK)
TRANSUNION (XNYS:TRU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�50%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
8.09B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.10B
2.99B
-
-
1.72B
-
-
1.72B
3.18M
106.05M
295.32M
1.79B
1.27B
1.12B
1.39B
270.08M
1.12B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
79.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
11.11M
Change in Working Capital :
- 292908.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 97220.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 98602.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
322.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
23.68M
Investments in PP&E:
- 50381.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
289.98M
-
289.98M
1.45B
1.32B
173.48M
3.23B
960.13M
4.53B
1.31B
-
-
470.61M
7.27B
-
10.50B
1.14B
113.48M
118.05M
245.27M
751.62M
2.25B
2.98B
573.32M
3.92B
-
6.17B
259.57M
9.60B
- 168821.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.82B
4.33B
10.50B
-
3.10B
2.8B
-
3.42M
- 46963.00K
-
-
-
- 72203.00K
- 3001.00K
- 75204.00K
2.96M
- 95520.00K
289.98M
385.50M
23.68M
- 50381.00K
- 26698.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DOV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$140.55
$202.57
$221.37
$241.92
$264.37