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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Douglas Emmett, Inc. (XNYS:DEI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DEI
Name:
DOUGLAS EMMETT, INC. (XNYS:DEI)
Sector:
90.21M
Industry:
REIT�Office
CEO:
Mr. Jordan Kaplan
Total Employees:
700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 108.35% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DOUGLAS EMMETT, INC.(DEI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�OFFICE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19.99
One Month Price Target:
$20.1
Six Month Price Target :
$20.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.29
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$19.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$20.06
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$18.96
This week:
$17.7
This month :
$15.4
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.52B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
175.78M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.61%
-18.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.76
$22.63
$15.22
$17.35
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.94
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.48
$18.04
$18.50
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DEI
Sharpe Ratio:
-3.78%
Comparison:
DEI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 63.84% higher than the industry
& is -265.99% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DEI
Daily returns:
-0.08%
Weekly returns:
-0.42%
Monthly returns:
-1.68%
Yearly returns:
-13.59%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 48.57% above industry average
Classification:
DEI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.33
Statistical test of Returns:
DEI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.46%
Weekly Volatility:
5.49%
Monthly Volatility:
10.99%
Yearly Volatility:
38.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.68%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -31.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.13%
Weekly VaR:
-11.47%
Monthly VaR:
-22.94%
How Much Can the price of
DEI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-79.48%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.74
This translates to price declining to:
$4.10
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DEI is a 61.94% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 38.74% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.91% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DEI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.96
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.91
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.288
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.716
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.812
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.058
Beta is -8.85% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.988
Beta is -2.38% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.299
Alpha is 27.39% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1906% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DEI
Equity cost of capital:
0.098
Equity cost of capital is -1.63% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.93%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.31%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.31%
WACC is -29.77% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.35
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.85
Annual revenue growth rate is -128.50% below industry average
EPS:
$0.45
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-43.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -478.07% lower than the REIT�Office industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.11
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 12.04%
Equity growth rate per share is -227.57% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$28.58
EBITDA per share
$3.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
DEI
P/E Ratio:
40.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.65
P/E ratio is 41.73% higher than main peers & is -34.15% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $27.75
DEI is -27.95% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $20.54
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.48
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.73
Price to sales ratio is -42.74% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.85
Price to free cash flow: 18.08
Price to free cash flow ratio is 23.08% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-45.57%
Net income growth rate is -190.56% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 62.07%
Dividend yeild: 5.60%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.12
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.28
2021-12-30--$0.28
2021-06-29--$0.28
2022-03-30--$0.28
2021-09-29--$0.28
2021-03-30--$0.28
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
199.56%
Net debt to equity ratio:
186.16%
Debt to assets ratio:
53.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
49.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -123.34% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.98
Interest coverage ratio is -205.17% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
12.73%
Annual debt growth is -375% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.667
Statistical significance of correlation:
DEI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.626
Stock price is 6.48% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.626
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.049
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.069
Kurtosis
7.588
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.313
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DEI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
268%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.32%
Operating profit margin is 17.65% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
268%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.14%
Return on equity (ROE) is -28.26% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.84%
Return on assets (ROA) is -69.65% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
2.88
Current ratio is -247.72% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.26%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
837.2K
Each employee generates -51% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
113.1K
Each employee generates -83% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
128.9K
Each employee generates 227% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
12.8M
Each employee generates 227% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DEI
COUSINS PROPERTIES INCORPORATED (XNYS:CUZ)
MGM GROWTH PROPERTIES LLC (XNYS:MGP)
IQVIA HOLDINGS INC (XFRA:QTS)
TERRENO REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:TRNO)
NATIONAL STORAGE AFFILIATES TRUST (XNYS:NSA)
THE HOWARD HUGHES CORPORATION (XNYS:HHC)
RAYONIER INC. (XNYS:RYN)
WEWORK INC. (XNYS:WE)
HEALTHCARE REALTY TRUST INCORPORATED (XNYS:HR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�46%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
940.98M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
309.46M
631.53M
-
44.22M
44.22M
-
367.86M
412.08M
-
147.19M
359.63M
586.01M
219.45M
79.18M
74.80M
-
79.18M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
87.57M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.58M
Change in Working Capital :
21.06M
Accounts Receivables:
2.91M
Other Working Capital:
2.15M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.01M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
139.47M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
337.27M
-
337.27M
125.25M
-
-
462.53M
9.89M
-
5.96M
47.87M
-
8.91B
8.98B
-
9.44B
98.74M
-
-
-
61.69M
160.43M
5.02B
85.73M
5.15B
-
5.31B
1.76M
- 1059499.00K
83.0M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
721.54M
2.52B
7.83B
-
5.02B
4.7B
-
- 72944.00K
- 72944.00K
- 202.00K
-
- 313.00K
- 49148.00K
- 15494.00K
- 65157.00K
-
1.37M
337.38M
336.01M
139.47M
- 49260.00K
90.21M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DEI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$17.68
$18.83
$20.05
$21.35
$22.73