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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Dorman Products, Inc. (XNAS:DORM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DORM
Name:
DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC. (XNAS:DORM)
Sector:
15.97M
Industry:
Auto Parts
CEO:
Mr. Kevin Olsen
Total Employees:
3,360
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -537.24% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC.(DORM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO PARTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
87.39
One Month Price Target:
$87.66
Six Month Price Target :
$88.99
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$90.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$87.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$87.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$83.12
This week:
$77.84
This month :
$68.29
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.69B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
31.43M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.34%
-13.5%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$107.20
$98.09
$67.58
$76.69
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$95.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$93.18
$79.63
$81.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DORM
Sharpe Ratio:
1.88%
Comparison:
DORM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 92.29% higher than the industry
& is -17.39% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DORM
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.08%
Yearly returns:
9.58%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 35.71% above industry average
Classification:
DORM, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
DORM has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.41%
Weekly Volatility:
5.38%
Monthly Volatility:
10.76%
Yearly Volatility:
37.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.42%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.71% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.89%
Weekly VaR:
-10.93%
Monthly VaR:
-21.86%
How Much Can the price of
DORM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-75.71%
This translates to price declining to:
$71.04
This translates to price declining to:
$21.23
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DORM is a 54.26% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 32.15% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.73% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DORM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.54
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.516
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.73
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.507
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.364
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.516
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.73
Beta is -68.60% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.212
Beta is -55.18% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.10%
Sustainable growth rate is -21.96% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.061
Alpha is -426.38% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 390% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DORM
Equity cost of capital:
0.069
Equity cost of capital is -40.01% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.41%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.80%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.80%
WACC is -35.12% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$46.41
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.86
Annual revenue growth rate is 73.53% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.21
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 146.64% higher than the Auto Parts industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.55
-
-
Debt per share
$2.83
EBITDA per share
$6.83
Valuation Analysis Today of
DORM
P/E Ratio:
19.73
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
105.5
P/E ratio is -81.30% lower than main peers & is -7.61% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $89.89
DORM is -2.78% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.88
Price to sales ratio is -17.76% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.86
Price to free cash flow: 34.27
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
2.53%
Net income growth rate is -93.19% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
9.26%
Net debt to equity ratio:
27.60%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.15%
Net debt to assets ratio:
15.36%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
66.89
Interest coverage ratio is 54.08% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.11%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.349
Statistical significance of correlation:
DORM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.534
Stock price is -34.78% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.534
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.03
Kurtosis
5.316
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.437
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DORM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
135%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.11%
Operating profit margin is 27.76% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
135%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.86%
Effective tax rate is -4.63% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.97%
Return on equity (ROE) is -34.83% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.77%
Return on assets (ROA) is -15.19% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.67
Current ratio is -16.83% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
109.2
Cash conversion cycle is 82.75% above industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.61%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
434.2K
Each employee generates 35% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
63.9K
Each employee generates 3% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
39.9K
Each employee generates 17% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.8K
Each employee generates -28% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
189.3K
Each employee generates -28% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DORM
Poshmark Inc (XNAS:POSH)
PAPA JOHN'S INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:PZZA)
OVERSTOCK.COM, INC. (XNAS:OSTK)
ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC. (XNAS:ASO)
VISTEON CORPORATION (XNAS:VC)
Meikles Limited (XLON:MIK)
STEVEN MADDEN, LTD. (XNAS:SHOO)
THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED (XNAS:CAKE)
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:HOVNP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
1.46B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
967.18M
491.64M
-
-
315.02M
-
-
315.02M
-
3.21M
37.67M
214.59M
176.61M
134.01M
173.72M
39.71M
134.01M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.74M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.15M
Change in Working Capital :
- 23917.00K
Accounts Receivables:
16.73M
Other Working Capital:
409.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
29.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
23.21M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7247.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/26/22
2022
Q1
53.43M
-
53.43M
456.07M
565.20M
13.51M
1.09B
214.37M
198.11M
176.09M
-
-
47.53M
636.10M
-
1.72B
165.84M
229.36M
-
-
257.42M
652.62M
88.88M
5.45M
112.28M
-
764.90M
315.00K
879.92M
256.0K
-
March 26, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.28B
959.40M
1.72B
-
318.24M
264.8M
-
595.00K
- 6652.00K
- 10000.00K
-
- 10752.00K
-
- 1211.00K
- 21963.00K
46.00K
- 5355.00K
53.43M
58.78M
23.21M
- 7247.00K
15.97M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DORM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$91.03
$218.51
$226.49
$234.76
$243.33