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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Dorchester Minerals Unt (XNAS:DMLP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DMLP
Name:
DORCHESTER MINERALS UNT (XNAS:DMLP)
Sector:
28.42M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. William McManemin
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DORCHESTER MINERALS UNT(DMLP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.17
One Month Price Target:
$28.26
Six Month Price Target :
$28.71
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.64
This week:
$24.75
This month :
$21.33
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
-
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.89%
-13.99%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.27
$31.97
$21.07
$24.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.90
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.20
$25.43
$26.14
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DMLP
Sharpe Ratio:
3.56%
Comparison:
DMLP, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -22.50% lower than the industry
& ratio is 56.26% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DMLP
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.52%
Monthly returns:
2.10%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -59.02% below industry average
Classification:
DMLP, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.32
Statistical test of Returns:
DMLP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.70%
Weekly Volatility:
6.03%
Monthly Volatility:
12.06%
Yearly Volatility:
41.77%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 68.17% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.43%
Weekly VaR:
-12.15%
Monthly VaR:
-24.29%
How Much Can the price of
DMLP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-84.16%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.46
This translates to price declining to:
$4.46
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DMLP is a 71.47% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 46.89% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -49.49% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DMLP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.5
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.707
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.382
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.396
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.649
Beta is -65.31% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is -71.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.181
Alpha is -59.31% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1152% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DMLP
Equity cost of capital:
0.071
Equity cost of capital is -58.25% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.54
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.30% below industry average
EPS:
$2.40
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.95%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -72.23% lower than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.33
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -12.27%
Equity growth rate per share is -109.84% lower than the industry
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
DMLP
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
62.66
-
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $101.07
DMLP is -72.13% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.45
Price to sales ratio is 71.66% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.54
Price to free cash flow: 12.10
Price to free cash flow ratio is -12.01% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
18.69%
Net income growth rate is -97.37% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 27.53%
Dividend yeild: 8.46%
Previous Dividend: $0.75
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.75
Previous Dividend: $2.38
Expected next dividend best case: $0.89
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.62
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.44
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 10.36%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-29--$0.75
2021-10-29--$0.51
2021-04-30--$0.30
2022-01-28--$0.64
2021-07-30--$0.48
2021-01-29--$0.24
Dividend growth rate is -74.96% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.00%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
0.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-18.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-13.73%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.332
Statistical significance of correlation:
DMLP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is -15.79% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.079
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.124
Kurtosis
2.614
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.449
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DMLP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
324%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
76.70%
Operating profit margin is -5675.06% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
324%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.00%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
52.97%
Return on assets (ROA) is 2204.06% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
18.57
Current ratio is 829.95% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
26.7
Cash conversion cycle is -62.34% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DMLP
BERRY CORPORATION (BRY) (XNAS:BRY)
CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODUCTS UNT (XNAS:CLMT)
SITIO ROYALTIES CORP. (XNYS:STR)
MATRIX SERVICE COMPANY (XNAS:MTRX)
TORM PLC (XNAS:TRMD)
BLUEKNIGHT ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P. (XNAS:BKEPP)
TRCH
ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:ARLP)
TARGET HOSPITALITY CORP. (XNAS:TH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
116.04M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
21.98M
94.06M
-
5.06M
5.06M
-
-
5.06M
-
-
-
89.00M
89.00M
89.00M
89.00M
-
89.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
28.42M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
28.42M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
32.97M
-
32.97M
25.63M
-
-
58.60M
109.40M
-
-
-
-
-
109.40M
-
168.01M
2.87M
288.00K
-
-
-
3.16M
1.52M
-
1.52M
-
4.68M
-
-
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
27.04M
-
4.68M
-
1.81M
- 31158.0K
-
747.00K
747.00K
-
-
-
- 24499.00K
-
- 24499.00K
-
4.66M
32.97M
28.31M
28.42M
-
28.42M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DMLP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.40
$63.42
$65.86
$68.39
$71.02