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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Domino'S Pizza, Inc. (XNYS:DPZ) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DPZ
Name:
DOMINO'S PIZZA, INC. (XNYS:DPZ)
Sector:
66.34M
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. Richard Allison
Total Employees:
13,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2026.83% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DOMINO'S PIZZA, INC.(DPZ) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
365.8
One Month Price Target:
$367.04
Six Month Price Target :
$373.25
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$380.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$364.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$367.36
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$349.53
This week:
$329.43
This month :
$293.06
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.02B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
35.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.6%
-9.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$441.26
$406.50
$290.34
$325.10
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$395.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$387.77
$336.32
$343.83
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DPZ
Sharpe Ratio:
2.12%
Comparison:
DPZ, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 28.33% higher than the industry
& is -7.20% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DPZ
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.28%
Monthly returns:
1.10%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -17.26% below industry average
Classification:
DPZ, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
DPZ has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.19%
Weekly Volatility:
4.90%
Monthly Volatility:
9.80%
Yearly Volatility:
33.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.27%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.97% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.45%
Weekly VaR:
-9.94%
Monthly VaR:
-19.89%
How Much Can the price of
DPZ
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-68.89%
This translates to price declining to:
$303.79
This translates to price declining to:
$113.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DPZ is a 40.35% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 20.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -37.24% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DPZ
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.457
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.646
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-104.355
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.496
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.386
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.041
Beta is -41.77% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is -55.24% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.059
Alpha is 65.66% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 379% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DPZ
Equity cost of capital:
0.073
Equity cost of capital is -41.23% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-1257.27%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.78%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.98%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.98%
WACC is -255.47% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$122.19
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-3.13
Annual revenue growth rate is 222.18% above the industry average
EPS:
$13.08
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.57%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 179.02% higher than the Restaurants industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$13.09
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 59.63%
Equity growth rate per share is -716.51% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$144.47
EBITDA per share
$24.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
DPZ
P/E Ratio:
28.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.74
P/E ratio is 44.79% higher than main peers & is 20.80% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $309.48
DPZ is 18.20% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $335.49
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $278.16
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.99
Price to sales ratio is -8.23% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-3.13
Price to free cash flow: 27.94
Price to free cash flow ratio is -47.40% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
95.12%
Net income growth rate is -45.37% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.01%
Dividend yeild: 1.12%
Previous Dividend: $1.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.10
Previous Dividend: $4.08
Expected next dividend best case: $1.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.98
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.88
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.75%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$1.10
2021-12-14--$0.94
2021-06-14--$0.94
2022-03-14--$1.10
2021-09-14--$0.94
2021-03-12--$0.94
Dividend growth rate is -352.60% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-123.48%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-121.77%
Debt to assets ratio:
309.70%
Net debt to assets ratio:
305.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 96.50% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.36
Interest coverage ratio is -75.35% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.15%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.27%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.354
Statistical significance of correlation:
DPZ has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is -31.46% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.03
Kurtosis
30.971
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.654
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DPZ
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
152%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.30%
Operating profit margin is 83.99% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
152%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.54%
Effective tax rate is 6.79% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-11.52%
Return on equity (ROE) is -3699.21% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
28.89%
Return on assets (ROA) is 103.53% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-0.5x
Current Ratio:
1.45
Current ratio is 28.91% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
11.2
Cash conversion cycle is -66.37% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.50%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
324.8K
Each employee generates 190% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
64.3K
Each employee generates 153% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
35.8K
Each employee generates 151% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.9K
Each employee generates 103% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
60.2K
Each employee generates 103% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DPZ
Amcor plc (XNYS:AMCR)
DARDEN RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNYS:DRI)
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (XNYS:QSR)
INTERNATIONAL PAPER COMPANY (XNYS:IP)
NVR, Inc. (XNYS:NVR)
CARMAX, INC. (XNYS:KMX)
GENUINE PARTS COMPANY (XNYS:GPC)
BURLINGTON STORES, INC. (XNYS:BURL)
CHEWY, INC. (XNYS:CHWY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�13%
Hold�50%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/27/22
Revenue:
4.38B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.72B
1.67B
-
434.57M
909.30M
474.73M
-
909.30M
372.00K
199.26M
75.43M
868.48M
758.41M
483.67M
593.79M
110.12M
483.67M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
18.98M
Differed Income Tax :
1.32M
Stock Based Compensation :
7.27M
Change in Working Capital :
- 42625.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 42625.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.89M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
78.79M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 6814.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/27/22
2022
Q1
164.96M
-
164.96M
246.98M
77.71M
371.59M
861.24M
528.75M
16.15M
96.79M
125.84M
2.25M
43.01M
812.79M
-
1.67B
92.35M
93.02M
-
-
409.46M
594.82M
5.18B
88.51M
5.28B
-
5.87B
360.00K
- 4200341.00K
- 2206.0K
-
March 27, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.63B
- 4198642.00K
1.67B
-
5.28B
5.1B
-
- 13822.00K
- 20636.00K
- 13861.00K
-
- 47661.00K
- 51.00K
- 523.00K
- 62096.00K
374.00K
- 3569.00K
486.91M
490.48M
78.79M
- 12454.00K
66.34M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DPZ
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$411.08
$427.82
$445.25
$463.38
$482.25