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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Dolphin Capital Investors Limited (XLON:DCI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DCI
Name:
Dolphin Capital Investors Limited (XLON:DCI)
Sector:
46.00M
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Tod Carpenter
Total Employees:
27
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -4.19% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED(DCI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
3.2
One Month Price Target:
$3.22
Six Month Price Target :
$3.3
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.39
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$3.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.21
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.07
This week:
$2.91
This month :
$2.61
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
28.86M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
904.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.%
-9.86%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.81
$3.54
$2.59
$2.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.39
$2.95
$3.01
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DCI
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.26%
Comparison:
DCI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -219.05% lower than the industry
& is -198.96% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DCI
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.18%
Monthly returns:
-0.72%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -152.99% below industry average
Classification:
DCI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
DCI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.98%
Weekly Volatility:
4.43%
Monthly Volatility:
8.87%
Yearly Volatility:
30.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.00%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -100.00% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.11%
Weekly VaR:
-9.19%
Monthly VaR:
-18.37%
How Much Can the price of
DCI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-63.64%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.67
This translates to price declining to:
$1.16
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DCI is a 29.67% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 11.09% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -27.52% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DCI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.89
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.647
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.915
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.652
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.051
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.009
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.032
Beta is -13.65% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is -30.48% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.19%
Sustainable growth rate is 15.45% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.179
Alpha is -513.44% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1137% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DCI
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is -22.43% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.77%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.26%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.78%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.78%
WACC is -80.76% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.53
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.59
Annual revenue growth rate is -62.84% below industry average
EPS:
$2.51
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.32%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 107.31% higher than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.89
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 16.69%
Equity growth rate per share is 54.64% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.61
EBITDA per share
$0.67
Valuation Analysis Today of
DCI
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.89
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $69.06
DCI is -95.37% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $60.96
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.79
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.91
Price to sales ratio is -78.12% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.59
Price to free cash flow: 1.69
Price to free cash flow ratio is -5.29% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
64.03%
Net income growth rate is 4657.27% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 17.07%
Dividend yeild: 27.81%
Previous Dividend: $0.23
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.23
Previous Dividend: $0.89
Expected next dividend best case: $0.24
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.22
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.22
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.93%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-08--$0.23
2021-12-06--$0.22
2021-06-09--$0.22
2022-02-10--$0.22
2021-08-13--$0.22
2021-02-10--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -73.33% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
49.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
34.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
22.48%
Net debt to assets ratio:
15.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -58.34% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
45.37
Interest coverage ratio is 132.47% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-24.70%
Annual debt growth is -133% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 12.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.042
Statistical significance of correlation:
DCI does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is -93.36% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.051
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.059
Kurtosis
6.646
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.054
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DCI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
131%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.36%
Operating profit margin is -155.19% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
131%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.27%
Effective tax rate is 35.24% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.35%
Return on equity (ROE) is 743.85% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.98%
Return on assets (ROA) is 176.47% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.23
Current ratio is -26.28% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
28.8
Cash conversion cycle is -53.16% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.11%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
118.1M
Each employee generates 2933% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
22.3M
Each employee generates 2913% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
11.7M
Each employee generates 2883% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.7M
Each employee generates 3228% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
42.3M
Each employee generates 3228% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 10.78%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -0.09% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
DCI
Pacific Airport Group, S.A.B. de CV (XNYS:PAC)
A1 INVESTMENTS & RESOURCES LTD (XASX:AYI)
NIELSEN HOLDINGS PLC (XNYS:NLSN)
MASTEC, INC. (XNYS:MTZ)
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:HII)
ENOVIS CORPORATION (XNYS:ENOV)
Regal Rexnord Corporation (XNYS:RRX)
TOPBUILD CORP. (XNYS:BLD)
ZIM INTEGRATED SHIPPING SERVICES LTD (XNYS:ZIM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
3.19B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.15B
1.04B
17.70M
-
136.00M
-
461.50M
615.20M
-
13.30M
166.70M
603.40M
426.20M
316.40M
423.40M
107.00M
316.40M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
47.00M
Differed Income Tax :
1.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
13.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 67100.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
676.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.10M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
79.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 33000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 49000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/31/21
2022
Q1
200.80M
-
200.80M
545.10M
444.70M
105.20M
1.30B
609.70M
320.60M
59.20M
-
-
153.20M
1.14B
-
2.44B
310.00M
41.20M
-
-
230.70M
581.90M
548.10M
166.10M
740.70M
-
1.32B
758.20M
1.69B
- 125400.0K
- 1202800.00K
January 31, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
2.76B
1.12B
2.44B
-
589.30M
388.5M
-
-
- 82000.00K
- 75000.00K
-
-
- 54000.00K
84.00M
- 45000.00K
- 4000.00K
- 30000.00K
170.00M
200.00M
79.00M
- 33000.00K
46.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DCI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$3.41
$14.19
$15.04
$15.94
$16.89