_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Diversified Healthcare Trust (XNAS:DHC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DHC
Name:
DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE TRUST (XNAS:DHC)
Sector:
- 7264.00K
Industry:
REIT�Healthcare Facilities
CEO:
-
Total Employees:
600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 63.18% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE TRUST(DHC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�HEALTHCARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
1.44
One Month Price Target:
$1.45
Six Month Price Target :
$1.51
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$1.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$1.43
Price Upper limit ($) :
$1.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$1.29
This week:
$1.1
This month :
$.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
337.16M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
239.12M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
36.34%
-32.45%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2.14
$1.82
$0.74
$1.06
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$1.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$1.66
$1.16
$1.22
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DHC
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.45%
Comparison:
DHC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 1399.04% higher than the industry
& is -207.66% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DHC
Daily returns:
-0.11%
Weekly returns:
-0.57%
Monthly returns:
-2.29%
Yearly returns:
0.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -6312.23% below industry average
Classification:
DHC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.07
Statistical test of Returns:
DHC has yielded a lower return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.03%
Weekly Volatility:
11.24%
Monthly Volatility:
22.49%
Yearly Volatility:
77.90%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.74%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.44%
Weekly VaR:
-23.35%
Monthly VaR:
-46.70%
How Much Can the price of
DHC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-43%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$0.83
This translates to price declining to:
$0.22
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DHC is a 229.59% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 182.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 54.31% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DHC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.47
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.887
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.255
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.738
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.154
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.366
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.081
Beta is 35.63% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.031
Beta is 42.19% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.407
Alpha is 316.47% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2590% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DHC
Equity cost of capital:
0.132
Equity cost of capital is 29.17% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.64%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.06%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.58%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.58%
WACC is 29.91% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.57
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.12
Annual revenue growth rate is 5844.12% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 405.37% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$12.04
EBITDA per share
$4.19
Valuation Analysis Today of
DHC
P/E Ratio:
0.84
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
630.4
P/E ratio is -99.87% lower than main peers & is -99.48% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $331.78
DHC is -99.57% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $991.13
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.16
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.26
Price to sales ratio is -96.01% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.12
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-39.28%
Net income growth rate is -24.78% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.50%
Dividend yeild: 2.78%
Previous Dividend: $0.01
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.01
Previous Dividend: $0.04
Expected next dividend best case: $0.06
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.04
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.04
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -9.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-22--$0.01
2021-10-22--$0.01
2021-04-23--$0.01
2022-01-21--$0.01
2021-07-23--$0.01
2021-01-22--$0.01
Dividend growth rate is -45.44% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
99.24%
Net debt to equity ratio:
98.13%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.01%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -20.87% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.96
Interest coverage ratio is 112.80% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.15%
Annual debt growth is -62% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.38%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.531
Statistical significance of correlation:
DHC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is -8.14% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
12.145
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.553
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DHC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
77%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-2.86%
Operating profit margin is -116.49% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
77%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.55%
Effective tax rate is -85.60% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.63%
Return on equity (ROE) is 367.21% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is 305.93% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
2
Current ratio is -42.01% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.2M
Each employee generates -78% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.7M
Each employee generates -73% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
804.1K
Each employee generates -61% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 12.1K
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
8.8M
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DHC
THE NECESSITY RETAIL REIT, INC. (XNAS:RTL)
CREATIVE MEDIA & COMMUNITY TRUST CORPORATION. (XNAS:CMCTP)
GLADSTONE COMMERCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:GOOD)
THE NECESSITY RETAIL REIT, INC. (XNAS:RTLPP)
THE RMR GROUP INC. (XNAS:RMR)
GOODM
GLADSTONE LAND CORPORATION (XNAS:LAND)
NYMTO
NYMTP
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.33B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.07B
258.06M
-
33.83M
33.83M
-
262.24M
296.07M
18.20M
252.80M
264.21M
1.00B
- 38009.00K
482.44M
485.84M
2.66M
482.44M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
57.36M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
14.24M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 2568.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 319293.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 7264.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
732.06M
-
732.06M
-
-
759.94M
1.49B
-
-
-
266.74M
-
4.98B
5.28B
-
6.78B
-
700.00M
-
-
45.58M
745.58M
2.88B
250.49M
3.13B
-
3.87B
2.39M
- 1717442.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.37B
2.90B
6.78B
-
3.58B
2.8B
-
588.35M
588.35M
- 100838.00K
-
- 5.00K
- 2390.00K
- 2805.00K
- 106038.00K
-
475.05M
1.49B
1.02B
- 7264.00K
-
- 7264.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DHC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$1.59
$352.99
$387.76
$425.95
$467.90