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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Diodes Incorporated (XNAS:DIOD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DIOD
Name:
DIODES INCORPORATED (XNAS:DIOD)
Sector:
33.78M
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Dr. Keh-Shew Lu
Total Employees:
8,921
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -167.07% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DIODES INCORPORATED(DIOD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
68.58
One Month Price Target:
$69.09
Six Month Price Target :
$71.63
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$74.69
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$68.3
Price Upper limit ($) :
$68.99
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$64.5
This week:
$59.46
This month :
$50.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.48M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.08%
-13.81%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.50
$78.75
$49.66
$58.41
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$75.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$74.04
$61.23
$63.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DIOD
Sharpe Ratio:
2.88%
Comparison:
DIOD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -7.08% lower than the industry
& ratio is 26.23% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DIOD
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.47%
Monthly returns:
1.87%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -29.77% below industry average
Classification:
DIOD, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.6
Statistical test of Returns:
DIOD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.94%
Weekly Volatility:
6.58%
Monthly Volatility:
13.15%
Yearly Volatility:
45.57%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.85%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -37.01% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.95%
Weekly VaR:
-13.30%
Monthly VaR:
-26.60%
How Much Can the price of
DIOD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-92.14%
This translates to price declining to:
$53.19
This translates to price declining to:
$5.39
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DIOD is a 87.73% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 60.82% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -17.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DIOD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.33
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.817
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.156
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.191
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.73
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.808
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.282
Beta is 3.37% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is -6.03% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
20.21%
Sustainable growth rate is -26.92% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.102
Alpha is -46.66% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 650% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DIOD
Equity cost of capital:
0.122
Equity cost of capital is -4.55% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.99%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.48%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.96%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.96%
WACC is 6.90% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$41.21
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.29
Annual revenue growth rate is 53.83% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.71
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
18.30%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -64.90% lower than the Semiconductors industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.23
-
-
Debt per share
$4.23
EBITDA per share
$10.43
Valuation Analysis Today of
DIOD
P/E Ratio:
10.99
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
48.41
P/E ratio is -77.29% lower than main peers & is -73.50% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $236.83
DIOD is -71.04% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.66
Price to sales ratio is -79.52% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.29
Price to free cash flow: 16.21
Price to free cash flow ratio is -66.70% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
114.91%
Net income growth rate is -300.60% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
14.84%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-5.52%
Debt to assets ratio:
8.89%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.31%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -77.19% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
82.62
Interest coverage ratio is 152.01% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-31.51%
Annual debt growth is -134% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 43.86%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.488
Statistical significance of correlation:
DIOD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is -22.16% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.062
Kurtosis
2.29
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
-0.238
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DIOD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
155%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.16%
Operating profit margin is -27.05% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
155%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.17%
Effective tax rate is 60.15% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.19%
Return on equity (ROE) is -29.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is -8.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.49
Current ratio is -38.79% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
29
Cash conversion cycle is -47.49% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.02%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
210.1K
Each employee generates -66% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
53.2K
Each employee generates -77% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
29.4K
Each employee generates -82% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.8K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
113.6K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 26.42%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 86.60% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
DIOD
PAYCOR HCM, INC. (XNAS:PYCR)
TASKUS, INC. (XNAS:TASK)
EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXLS)
AMPLITUDE, INC. (XNAS:AMPL)
SPS COMMERCE, INC. (XNAS:SPSC)
VARONIS SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:VRNS)
TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR LTD (XNAS:TSEM)
MCAFEE CORP. (XNAS:MCFE)
Jamf Holding Corp. (XNAS:JAMF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.87B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.15B
728.42M
120.22M
-
270.48M
-
15.83M
406.52M
3.20M
5.74M
120.56M
474.33M
321.65M
262.00M
355.93M
86.02M
262.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
28.59M
Differed Income Tax :
- 347.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 42137.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 6626.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.14M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
72.32M
Investments in PP&E:
- 38542.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 13269.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 5998.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
303.30M
9.24M
312.54M
362.04M
370.05M
107.47M
1.15B
589.92M
147.97M
90.45M
-
21.76M
163.28M
1.01B
-
2.17B
211.37M
39.13M
45.60M
-
213.00M
463.49M
192.54M
116.98M
341.95M
-
805.44M
36.34M
1.19B
- 61804.0K
133.47M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.55B
1.30B
2.10B
-
231.67M
- 71624.0K
3.05M
- 123.00K
- 54886.00K
- 150428.00K
84.00K
-
-
74.49M
- 75859.00K
- 2385.00K
- 60813.00K
306.01M
366.82M
72.32M
- 38542.00K
33.78M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DIOD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$75.06
$160.08
$174.34
$189.86
$206.77