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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:DCOM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DCOM
Name:
DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:DCOM)
Sector:
77.78M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Kenneth Mahon
Total Employees:
802
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1289.95% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES, INC.(DCOM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.91
One Month Price Target:
$31.09
Six Month Price Target :
$32.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.12
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$30.77
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.1
This week:
$26.87
This month :
$22.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
38.60M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.83%
-14.68%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.29
$35.46
$22.53
$26.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.21
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.39
$27.60
$28.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DCOM
Sharpe Ratio:
0.83%
Comparison:
DCOM, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -32.58% lower than the industry
& is -63.66% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DCOM
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.65%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -28.43% below industry average
Classification:
DCOM, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
DCOM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.86%
Weekly Volatility:
6.40%
Monthly Volatility:
12.79%
Yearly Volatility:
44.31%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.33%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -88.33% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.84%
Weekly VaR:
-13.06%
Monthly VaR:
-26.13%
How Much Can the price of
DCOM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-90.50%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.88
This translates to price declining to:
$2.94
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DCOM is a 84.39% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 57.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.13% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DCOM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.06
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.717
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.014
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.892
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.596
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.884
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.893
Beta is 19.04% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 10.32% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.47%
Sustainable growth rate is -40.13% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.026
Alpha is -326.08% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -167% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DCOM
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is 6.99% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.77%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.77%
WACC is -10.25% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.03
Annual revenue growth rate is 357.32% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
34.36%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 185.83% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.75
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 105.45%
Equity growth rate per share is 172.31% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$8.05
EBITDA per share
$6.72
Valuation Analysis Today of
DCOM
P/E Ratio:
8.87
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.53
P/E ratio is -6.95% lower than main peers & is -28.55% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $47.03
DCOM is -34.27% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $103.25
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $44.89
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.8
Price to sales ratio is -34.44% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.03
Price to free cash flow: 5.38
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
86.03%
Net income growth rate is 56.21% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.14%
Dividend yeild: 3.11%
Previous Dividend: $0.24
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.24
Previous Dividend: $0.96
Expected next dividend best case: $0.28
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.20
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 8.12%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 29/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 18/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 31/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-14--$0.24
2021-10-15--$0.24
2021-05-10--$0.24
2022-01-13--$0.24
2021-07-16--$0.24
2021-02-04--$0.24
Dividend growth rate is -65.53% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.89%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-10.34%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.99%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.31
Interest coverage ratio is 1264.95% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-15.43%
Annual debt growth is -4971% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.509
Statistical significance of correlation:
DCOM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 1.71% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.039
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.065
Kurtosis
5.378
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.003
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DCOM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.84%
Operating profit margin is -83.70% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.87%
Effective tax rate is 33.96% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is 15.77% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -42.68% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
612.86
Current ratio is 922.50% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.76%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
530.6K
Each employee generates 40% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
323.2K
Each employee generates 43% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
199.0K
Each employee generates 41% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
97.0K
Each employee generates 17% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.4M
Each employee generates 17% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DCOM
FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION (XNAS:BUSE)
THE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBBK)
TRICO BANCSHARES (XNAS:TCBK)
LEXINFINTECH HOLDINGS LTD. (XNAS:LX)
S & T BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:STBA)
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ECPG)
BROOKLINE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:BRKL)
OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:OCFC)
ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP (XNAS:EFSC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
425.53M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
198.18M
-
137.42M
142.52M
5.10M
- 68964.00K
3.25M
391.79M
22.91M
11.99M
259.21M
-
159.56M
224.31M
64.75M
159.56M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.35M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.22M
Change in Working Capital :
40.52M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
79.62M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1842.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 3000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
432.99M
1.28B
1.71B
38.46M
-
-
1.75B
111.41M
155.80M
7.78M
1.66B
-
-
1.94B
12.27B
12.08B
-
2.85M
-
-
-
2.85M
310.65M
-
310.65M
11.23B
10.92B
416.00K
677.99M
- 49380.0K
409.69M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.16B
12.08B
2.94B
313.50M
- 119491.0K
225.11M
- 227747.00K
- 7476.00K
-
-
- 17392.00K
- 1821.00K
- 13662.00K
- 32875.00K
-
39.27M
432.99M
393.72M
79.62M
- 1842.00K
77.78M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DCOM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$33.29
$47.27
$50.65
$54.27
$58.14