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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Digital Turbine, Inc. (XNAS:APPS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
APPS
Name:
DIGITAL TURBINE, INC. (XNAS:APPS)
Sector:
- 33361.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. William Stone
Total Employees:
844
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -114.25% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DIGITAL TURBINE, INC.(APPS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.58
One Month Price Target:
$17.82
Six Month Price Target :
$19.
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$20.41
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.56
This week:
$13.07
This month :
$8.55
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.69B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
98.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
31.92%
-22.61%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.93
$22.57
$8.23
$12.59
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.22
$14.00
$14.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
APPS
Sharpe Ratio:
4.65%
Comparison:
APPS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 381.91% higher than the industry
& ratio is 103.80% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
APPS
Daily returns:
0.27%
Weekly returns:
1.37%
Monthly returns:
5.49%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 563.45% above industry average
Classification:
APPS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.16
Statistical test of Returns:
APPS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.72%
Weekly Volatility:
12.80%
Monthly Volatility:
25.59%
Yearly Volatility:
88.66%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.78% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.48%
Weekly VaR:
-25.67%
Monthly VaR:
-51.34%
How Much Can the price of
APPS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-42%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.15
This translates to price declining to:
$2.64
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
APPS is a 262.33% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 210.41% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 59.22% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
APPS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.40
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.338
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.893
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.741
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.94
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.138
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.328
Beta is 80.48% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 79.41% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.26%
Sustainable growth rate is -63.79% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.464
Alpha is -2063.82% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2951% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
APPS
Equity cost of capital:
0.196
Equity cost of capital is 59.07% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
14.22%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.67%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.67%
WACC is 80.86% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.95
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.3
Annual revenue growth rate is 92.85% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.64
-
-
Debt per share
$2.37
EBITDA per share
$1.08
Valuation Analysis Today of
APPS
P/E Ratio:
50.85
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
954.32
P/E ratio is -94.67% lower than main peers & is -71.37% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $62.16
APPS is -71.72% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.61
Price to sales ratio is -86.01% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.3
Price to free cash flow: 27.29
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-182.42%
Net income growth rate is -174.71% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
46.49%
Net debt to equity ratio:
34.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.42%
Net debt to assets ratio:
12.02%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -70.07% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
19.84
Interest coverage ratio is -62.66% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-26.08%
Annual debt growth is -103% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.76%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.522
Statistical significance of correlation:
APPS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 3.87% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.057
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.191
Kurtosis
3.207
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.373
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
APPS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
187%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.52%
Operating profit margin is -144.47% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
187%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.11%
Effective tax rate is -27.55% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.07%
Return on equity (ROE) is -154.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.50%
Return on assets (ROA) is -164.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0.52
Current ratio is -82.52% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
24.6
Cash conversion cycle is -74.01% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
10.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates 271% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
126.5K
Each employee generates 1077% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
42.1K
Each employee generates -341% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 39.5K
Each employee generates 409% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates 409% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 67.41%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 4308.92% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
APPS
NUTANIX, INC. (XNAS:NTNX)
MICROSTRATEGY INCORPORATED (XNAS:MSTR)
SILICON LABORATORIES INC. (XNAS:SLAB)
BLACKLINE, INC (XNAS:BL)
APPIAN CORPORATION (XNAS:APPN)
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (XNAS:LITE)
NCINO, INC. (XNAS:NCNO)
NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS CORPORATION (XNAS:NATI)
COHERENT, INC. (XNAS:COHR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.08B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
639.16M
443.28M
63.30M
138.14M
201.45M
63.31M
86.28M
351.03M
22.04M
5.38M
57.45M
106.78M
92.24M
35.55M
43.97M
8.40M
35.55M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.65M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.71M
Change in Working Capital :
- 55735.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 48817.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 44053.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
96.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 28997.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 126604.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
83.13M
-
83.13M
219.10M
-
21.56M
323.79M
38.49M
572.61M
488.36M
-
-
799.00K
1.10B
-
1.42B
155.38M
20.42M
-
-
442.75M
618.54M
233.83M
20.22M
278.73M
-
897.27M
10.00K
- 213050.00K
- 20922.0K
736.87M
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
990.19M
503.01M
1.40B
-
254.25M
171.1M
-
- 4364.00K
- 130968.00K
- 19680.00K
-
-
-
234.75M
215.07M
- 2209.00K
52.89M
84.01M
31.12M
- 28997.00K
- 4364.00K
- 33361.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
APPS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$20.51
$116.92
$135.75
$157.61
$182.98