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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Digimarc Corporation (XNAS:DMRC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DMRC
Name:
DIGIMARC CORPORATION (XNAS:DMRC)
Sector:
- 12389.00K
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Bruce Davis
Total Employees:
228
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -82.73% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DIGIMARC CORPORATION(DMRC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
16.67
One Month Price Target:
$16.78
Six Month Price Target :
$17.36
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.05
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$14.92
This week:
$12.75
This month :
$8.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
320.13M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.97M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.5%
-34.79%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.81
$21.10
$8.53
$12.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.89
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.10
$13.44
$14.24
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DMRC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.36%
Comparison:
DMRC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -80.03% lower than the industry
& is -84.12% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DMRC
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.55%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -54.38% below industry average
Classification:
DMRC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
DMRC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.14%
Weekly Volatility:
11.48%
Monthly Volatility:
22.97%
Yearly Volatility:
79.57%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.84%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -25.24% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.52%
Weekly VaR:
-23.52%
Monthly VaR:
-47.05%
How Much Can the price of
DMRC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-41%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.79
This translates to price declining to:
$2.50
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DMRC is a 232.08% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 184.49% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 69.28% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DMRC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.23
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.903
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.277
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.133
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.966
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.241
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.466
Beta is -15.99% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is 1.88% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.050
Alpha is -266.32% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -318% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DMRC
Equity cost of capital:
0.116
Equity cost of capital is 1.36% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.66%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.65
Annual revenue growth rate is -173.04% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-8.89%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -362.11% lower than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.31
EBITDA per share
-$2.02
Valuation Analysis Today of
DMRC
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
176.08
-
-
DMRC is -113.30% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
12.23
Price to sales ratio is 234.77% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.65
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-26.07%
Net income growth rate is -100.03% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
8.76%
Net debt to equity ratio:
4.25%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.70%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.25%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -89.44% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-64.86%
Annual debt growth is -1191% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.24%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.366
Statistical significance of correlation:
DMRC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is -38.53% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.026
Kurtosis
5.959
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.202
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DMRC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
248%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-182.35%
Operating profit margin is 2526.34% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
248%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.51%
Effective tax rate is -98.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-61.96%
Return on equity (ROE) is -210.17% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-47.40%
Return on assets (ROA) is -55625.88% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.95
Current ratio is -15.82% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
87.6
Cash conversion cycle is 133.81% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
119.4K
Each employee generates -72% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 176.7K
Each employee generates -494% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 194.4K
Each employee generates -2383% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 54.3K
Each employee generates 716% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
280.2K
Each employee generates 716% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 1.32%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -95.80% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
DMRC
ONESPAN INC. (XNAS:OSPN)
IMTXW
META MATERIALS INC. (XNAS:MMAT)
SIERRA WIRELESS, INC. (XNAS:SWIR)
ALLIED MOTION TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNAS:AMOT)
CAMBIUM NETWORKS CORPORATION (XNAS:CMBM)
GROUPON, INC. (XNAS:GRPN)
MICROVISION, INC. (XNAS:MVIS)
INTERNATIONAL MONEY EXPRESS, INC. (XNAS:IMXI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
27.23M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
10.48M
16.75M
19.50M
22.55M
45.99M
23.44M
342.00K
65.83M
-
-
4.25M
- 40296.00K
- 49656.00K
- 44318.00K
- 44547.00K
- 229.00K
- 44318.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.37M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.47M
Change in Working Capital :
489.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.73M
Other Working Capital:
- 423.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
600.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 11856.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 414.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 3512.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.23M
15.96M
19.19M
5.93M
-
4.49M
29.61M
8.67M
6.41M
41.83M
5.71M
-
1.27M
63.89M
-
93.50M
-
-
-
4.32M
10.88M
15.19M
6.27M
519.00K
6.79M
-
21.98M
18.00K
- 223792.00K
- 1117.0K
296.36M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
76.31M
71.52M
93.50M
21.67M
6.27M
3.0M
5.94M
- 119.00K
1.89M
- 15.00K
-
- 583.00K
-
-
- 598.00K
1.00K
- 10561.00K
3.23M
13.79M
- 11856.00K
- 533.00K
- 12389.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DMRC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.11
$19.61
$21.23
$22.98
$24.89