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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Dick'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (XNYS:DKS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DKS
Name:
DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC. (XNYS:DKS)
Sector:
376.25M
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Mr. Edward Stack
Total Employees:
17,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -155.98% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC.(DKS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
108.23
One Month Price Target:
$109.17
Six Month Price Target :
$113.88
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$119.54
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$107.78
Price Upper limit ($) :
$109.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$100.66
This week:
$91.3
This month :
$74.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.38B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
79.20M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.12%
-21.29%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$143.32
$126.93
$73.14
$89.53
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$121.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.10
$94.82
$98.36
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DKS
Sharpe Ratio:
4.87%
Comparison:
DKS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 70.32% higher than the industry
& ratio is 113.73% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DKS
Daily returns:
0.18%
Weekly returns:
0.90%
Monthly returns:
3.58%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 23.04% above industry average
Classification:
DKS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
DKS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.49%
Weekly Volatility:
7.81%
Monthly Volatility:
15.62%
Yearly Volatility:
54.12%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.93%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -44.88% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.00%
Weekly VaR:
-15.64%
Monthly VaR:
-31.28%
How Much Can the price of
DKS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$80.52
This translates to price declining to:
$16.23
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DKS is a 120.80% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 89.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.90% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DKS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.823
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.163
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.869
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.014
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.836
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.626
Beta is -4.42% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is 8.72% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
31.71%
Sustainable growth rate is -4.51% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.292
Alpha is 32.72% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1857% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DKS
Equity cost of capital:
0.138
Equity cost of capital is 6.59% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.72%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.23%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.76%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.76%
WACC is 26.19% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$152.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.3
Annual revenue growth rate is 41.10% above the industry average
EPS:
$12.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
61.87%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 75.69% higher than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.28
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 86.55%
Equity growth rate per share is 68.76% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$33.83
EBITDA per share
$28.42
Valuation Analysis Today of
DKS
P/E Ratio:
9.34
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.52
P/E ratio is -30.96% lower than main peers & is -56.59% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $277.05
DKS is -60.93% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.71
Price to sales ratio is -82.55% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.3
Price to free cash flow: 10.53
Price to free cash flow ratio is -84.12% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
108.14%
Net income growth rate is -122.85% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.35%
Dividend yeild: 6.79%
Previous Dividend: $0.49
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.49
Previous Dividend: $7.35
Expected next dividend best case: $1.89
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.91
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.87
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 148.44%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.49
2021-12-09--$0.44
2021-06-10--$0.36
2022-03-17--$0.49
2021-09-09--$5.50
2021-03-18--$0.36
Dividend growth rate is -66530.67% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
103.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
49.61%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
15.98%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -54.09% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
32.1
Interest coverage ratio is 29.63% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
386.88%
Annual debt growth is 451% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.566
Statistical significance of correlation:
DKS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is 19.08% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.035
Kurtosis
6.913
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.031
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DKS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
152%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.94%
Operating profit margin is 145.25% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
152%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.58%
Effective tax rate is 4.57% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
54.59%
Return on equity (ROE) is 3737.58% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
17.59%
Return on assets (ROA) is 89.02% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.56
Current ratio is -17.26% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-35.2
Cash conversion cycle is -154.44% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.91%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
678.4K
Each employee generates -8% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
126.4K
Each employee generates -48% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
79.7K
Each employee generates -46% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
21.1K
Each employee generates -49% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
226.1K
Each employee generates -49% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DKS
LEVI STRAUSS & CO. (XNYS:LEVI)
ARAMARK (XNYS:ARMK)
Capri Holdings Limited (XNYS:CPRI)
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD. (XNYS:NCLH)
AUTOLIV, INC. (XNYS:ALV)
SEALED AIR CORPORATION (XNYS:SEE)
LITHIA MOTORS, INC. (XNYS:LAD)
Berry Global Group, Inc. (XNYS:BERY)
QUANTUMSCAPE CORPORATION (XNYS:QS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�108%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
12.07B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.47B
4.61B
-
-
2.67B
-
8.78M
2.68B
-
70.10M
323.86M
2.25B
1.93B
1.42B
1.86B
437.84M
1.42B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
78.37M
Differed Income Tax :
3.98M
Stock Based Compensation :
12.87M
Change in Working Capital :
10.35M
Accounts Receivables:
- 12439.00K
Other Working Capital:
97.13M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 19970.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
447.35M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/1/21
2022
Q1
1.86B
-
1.86B
69.95M
2.01B
100.59M
4.04B
3.47B
245.86M
89.12M
-
47.49M
172.35M
4.03B
-
8.07B
1.24B
468.32M
141.87M
238.75M
640.94M
2.59B
2.68B
200.66M
2.88B
-
5.47B
847.00K
3.39B
15.0K
- 796205.00K
May 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
10.15B
2.60B
8.07B
-
3.15B
1.3B
-
- 73435.00K
- 73435.00K
- 56867.00K
-
- 76841.00K
- 33334.00K
- 6268.00K
- 173310.00K
64.00K
200.67M
1.86B
1.66B
447.35M
- 71097.00K
376.25M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DKS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$120.14
$214.12
$236.48
$261.18
$288.47