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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Dexcom, Inc. (XNAS:DXCM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DXCM
Name:
DEXCOM, INC. (XNAS:DXCM)
Sector:
- 30600.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Kevin Sayer
Total Employees:
6,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -205.16% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DEXCOM, INC.(DXCM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
82
One Month Price Target:
$82.48
Six Month Price Target :
$84.9
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$87.8
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$81.66
Price Upper limit ($) :
$82.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$76.91
This week:
$70.61
This month :
$59.23
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
32.20B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
392.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.04%
-17.1%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$105.61
$94.67
$58.39
$69.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$91.11
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$88.78
$72.86
$75.22
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DXCM
Sharpe Ratio:
3.31%
Comparison:
DXCM, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 118.73% higher than the industry
& ratio is 45.35% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DXCM
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.55%
Monthly returns:
2.22%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 73.16% above industry average
Classification:
DXCM, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.33
Statistical test of Returns:
DXCM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.08%
Weekly Volatility:
6.88%
Monthly Volatility:
13.76%
Yearly Volatility:
47.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.02%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.82% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.21%
Weekly VaR:
-13.89%
Monthly VaR:
-27.77%
How Much Can the price of
DXCM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$62.91
This translates to price declining to:
$12.30
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DXCM is a 96.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 67.91% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.98% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DXCM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.878
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.241
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.504
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.022
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.61
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.785
Beta is 34.01% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is -1.15% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.43%
Sustainable growth rate is -42.94% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.162
Alpha is 230.37% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1033% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DXCM
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is -0.80% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.96%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-5.58%
After-tax cost of debt:
-4.40%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-4.40%
WACC is -47.08% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.55
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
14.7
Annual revenue growth rate is -68.90% below industry average
EPS:
$0.51
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
11.77%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1.66% higher than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.23
-
-
Debt per share
$5.40
EBITDA per share
$0.47
Valuation Analysis Today of
DXCM
P/E Ratio:
172.97
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.61
P/E ratio is 575.30% higher than main peers & is -28.98% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $124.21
DXCM is -33.98% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
12.52
Price to sales ratio is 34.47% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
14.7
Price to free cash flow: 351.03
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-210.29%
Net income growth rate is -316.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
Previous Dividend: $0.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.00
-
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-13--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
96.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
65.12%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.19%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 8.25% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1.56
Interest coverage ratio is -111.70% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.35%
Annual debt growth is -98% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.532
Statistical significance of correlation:
DXCM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is 13.74% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.051
Kurtosis
2.945
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.155
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DXCM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
270%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.16%
Operating profit margin is -159.48% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
270%
Effective Tax Rate:
-12.29%
Effective tax rate is -122.38% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.64%
Return on equity (ROE) is -198.30% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is -223.77% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
5.27
Current ratio is -18.53% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
118.5
Cash conversion cycle is 112.37% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
13.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
408.2K
Each employee generates 8% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
29.6K
Each employee generates 373% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
33.5K
Each employee generates -213% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.9K
Each employee generates -66% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
208.0K
Each employee generates -66% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 43.65%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -33389.16% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
DXCM
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC. (XNAS:WBA)
IDEXX LABORATORIES, INC. (XNAS:IDXX)
ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ALGN)
BioNTech SE (XNAS:BNTX)
VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED (XNAS:VRTX)
BIOGEN INC. (XNAS:BIIB)
ILLUMINA, INC. (XNAS:ILMN)
CERNER CORPORATION (XNAS:CERN)
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:REGN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�33%
Buy�13%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.57B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
837.60M
1.73B
543.50M
-
842.30M
-
87.00M
1.47B
900.00K
- 119400.00K
117.90M
186.40M
261.20M
211.00M
187.90M
- 23100.00K
211.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
36.80M
Differed Income Tax :
100.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
29.10M
Change in Working Capital :
- 97500.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 30100.00K
Other Working Capital:
1.90M
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.20M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
71.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 101600.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 3200.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 546500.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
716.00M
1.97B
2.69B
544.50M
342.20M
171.70M
3.75B
938.80M
26.60M
31.40M
-
290.80M
22.80M
1.31B
-
5.06B
150.10M
20.90M
33.70M
2.70M
537.70M
711.40M
2.12B
35.50M
2.16B
-
2.87B
100.00K
236.00M
- 6100.0K
1.96B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.31B
2.19B
5.06B
-
2.14B
1.4B
241.80M
- 2300.00K
- 411800.00K
-
10.10M
-
-
- 4800.00K
5.30M
- 1000.00K
- 336500.00K
717.10M
1.05B
71.00M
- 101600.00K
- 30600.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DXCM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$83.18
$89.06
$95.36
$102.10
$109.33