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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Denny'S Corporation (XNAS:DENN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DENN
Name:
DENNY'S CORPORATION (XNAS:DENN)
Sector:
- 9842.00K
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. John Miller
Total Employees:
3,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2821.29% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DENNY'S CORPORATION(DENN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.61
One Month Price Target:
$9.7
Six Month Price Target :
$10.12
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.68
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.72
This week:
$7.63
This month :
$5.65
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
540.48M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
57.93M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
36.56%
-32.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.73
$11.86
$5.49
$7.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.25
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.85
$7.97
$8.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DENN
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.43%
Comparison:
DENN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -126.18% lower than the industry
& is -118.93% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DENN
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.05%
Monthly returns:
-0.21%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -115.74% below industry average
Classification:
DENN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
DENN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.49%
Weekly Volatility:
10.03%
Monthly Volatility:
20.06%
Yearly Volatility:
69.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.84%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.02% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.22%
Weekly VaR:
-20.62%
Monthly VaR:
-41.24%
How Much Can the price of
DENN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.09
This translates to price declining to:
$1.44
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DENN is a 191.07% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 149.36% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 28.42% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DENN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.989
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.399
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.424
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.092
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.296
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.711
Beta is -6.89% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is 17.69% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.166
Alpha is -561.82% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1056% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DENN
Equity cost of capital:
0.141
Equity cost of capital is 13.21% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-3.74%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.96%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.13%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.13%
WACC is 30.47% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.26
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-11.66
Annual revenue growth rate is -298.57% below industry average
EPS:
$1.19
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-15.32%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -546.60% lower than the Restaurants industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.76
-
-
Debt per share
$5.25
EBITDA per share
$2.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
DENN
P/E Ratio:
6.15
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
34.07
P/E ratio is -81.95% lower than main peers & is -74.01% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $28.16
DENN is -65.87% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.32
Price to sales ratio is -59.44% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-11.66
Price to free cash flow: 12.64
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
73.00%
Net income growth rate is -58.07% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-637.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-660.92%
Debt to assets ratio:
75.82%
Net debt to assets ratio:
78.63%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.89% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.28
Interest coverage ratio is -41.87% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.47%
Annual debt growth is -139% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.524
Statistical significance of correlation:
DENN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is 1.33% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.048
Kurtosis
16.766
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.729
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DENN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
142%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
26.59%
Operating profit margin is 182.85% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
142%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.33%
Effective tax rate is 45.85% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-160.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is -50312.19% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
19.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is 34.69% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.1x
Current Ratio:
0.66
Current ratio is -41.28% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-103.9
Cash conversion cycle is -412.58% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.23%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
127.5K
Each employee generates 14% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
39.7K
Each employee generates 56% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
23.3K
Each employee generates 63% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.0K
Each employee generates -223% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
105.9K
Each employee generates -223% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DENN
BLINK CHARGING CO. (XNAS:BLNK)
BAOZUN INC. (XNAS:BZUN)
PLBY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PLBY)
AMERICAN WOODMARK CORPORATION (XNAS:AMWD)
THE CHILDREN'S PLACE, INC. (XNAS:PLCE)
WW International, Inc. (XNAS:WW)
ZUMIEZ INC. (XNAS:ZUMZ)
CLARUS CORPORATION (XNAS:CLAR)
SHOE CARNIVAL, INC. (XNAS:SCVL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
420.71M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
271.44M
149.26M
-
68.70M
68.70M
-
- 30976.00K
37.72M
16.00K
12.73M
15.33M
130.85M
111.87M
76.75M
102.78M
26.03M
76.75M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.55M
Differed Income Tax :
4.44M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.02M
Change in Working Capital :
- 20912.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 244.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 20006.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 7064.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
108.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 1200.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
6.09M
3.69M
9.78M
23.16M
9.83M
9.26M
52.03M
222.29M
36.88M
49.89M
-
5.14M
35.16M
349.36M
-
401.39M
13.00M
17.37M
4.53M
5.82M
42.71M
78.89M
304.34M
65.92M
370.26M
-
449.15M
645.00K
- 94586.00K
- 48689.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
309.17M
- 47755.00K
401.39M
-
321.71M
315.6M
-
- 2711.00K
- 3803.00K
- 12828.00K
-
- 12498.00K
-
11.66M
- 13666.00K
-
- 24533.00K
6.09M
30.62M
- 7064.00K
- 2778.00K
- 9842.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DENN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.69
$18.58
$20.57
$22.77
$25.21