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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Dell Technologies Inc. (XNYS:DELL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DELL
Name:
DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNYS:DELL)
Sector:
1.61B
Industry:
Computer Hardware
CEO:
Mr. Michael Dell
Total Employees:
133,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -104.13% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC.(DELL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND COMPUTER HARDWARE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
37.79
One Month Price Target:
$37.97
Six Month Price Target :
$38.87
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$39.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$37.66
Price Upper limit ($) :
$37.99
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$35.83
This week:
$33.4
This month :
$29.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
27.34B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
732.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.47%
-13.51%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.88
$42.67
$28.70
$32.91
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$41.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.39
$34.27
$35.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DELL
Sharpe Ratio:
3.47%
Comparison:
DELL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 6.70% higher than the industry
& ratio is 52.20% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DELL
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.49%
Monthly returns:
1.96%
Yearly returns:
26.14%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -9.85% below industry average
Classification:
DELL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.63
Statistical test of Returns:
DELL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.58%
Weekly Volatility:
5.76%
Monthly Volatility:
11.52%
Yearly Volatility:
39.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.62%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -37.04% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.19%
Weekly VaR:
-11.61%
Monthly VaR:
-23.21%
How Much Can the price of
DELL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-80.41%
This translates to price declining to:
$30.46
This translates to price declining to:
$7.40
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DELL is a 63.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DELL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.85
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.69
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.976
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.093
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.893
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.758
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.209
Beta is -29.85% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.224
Beta is -30.69% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
130.70%
Sustainable growth rate is 190.83% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.146
Alpha is -0.01% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 929% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DELL
Equity cost of capital:
0.090
Equity cost of capital is -22.31% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.98%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.11%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.67%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.67%
WACC is -36.65% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$140.29
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.03
Annual revenue growth rate is -71.09% below industry average
EPS:
$7.31
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.48
-
-
Debt per share
$54.20
EBITDA per share
$16.23
Valuation Analysis Today of
DELL
P/E Ratio:
5.09
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
58.84
P/E ratio is -91.35% lower than main peers & is -62.03% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $98.00
DELL is -61.44% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.27
Price to sales ratio is -90.45% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.03
Price to free cash flow: 6.89
Price to free cash flow ratio is -94.98% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-210.16%
Net income growth rate is -327.90% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.87%
Previous Dividend: $0.33
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.33
Previous Dividend: $0.33
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
-
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 19/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-19--$0.33
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
982.10%
Net debt to equity ratio:
857.11%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.63%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.53
Interest coverage ratio is 133.66% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.35%
Annual debt growth is -116% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.663
Statistical significance of correlation:
DELL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.599
Stock price is 10.56% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.599
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.016
Kurtosis
6.191
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.083
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DELL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
73%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.70%
Operating profit margin is -37.78% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
73%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.50%
Effective tax rate is 8.45% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
142.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is 962.43% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is -36.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.77
Current ratio is -66.59% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-60.2
Cash conversion cycle is -175.56% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
773.1K
Each employee generates 7% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
89.4K
Each employee generates -12% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
43.2K
Each employee generates -38% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.1K
Each employee generates -1% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
597.1K
Each employee generates -1% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 5.67%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -434.98% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
DELL
INFOSYS LIMITED (XNYS:INFY)
VMWARE, INC. (XNYS:VMW)
Abb Ltd (XNYS:ABB)
FIDELITY NATIONAL INFORMATION SERVICES, INC. (XNYS:FIS)
SNOWFLAKE INC. (XNYS:SNOW)
BLOCK, INC. (XNYS:SQ)
TE Connectivity Ltd (XNYS:TEL)
HP INC. (XNYS:HPQ)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/29/22
Revenue:
102.83B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
82.81B
20.02B
1.94B
-
13.25B
-
-
15.18B
31.00M
1.03B
4.04B
11.89B
4.83B
5.75B
6.15B
1.08B
5.75B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.24B
Differed Income Tax :
- 170000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
435.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 122000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.85B
Other Working Capital:
- 1727000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 31000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.24B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 10000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 146000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
14.24B
-
14.24B
15.89B
3.83B
8.38B
42.34B
8.65B
40.84B
13.73B
1.67B
6.35B
8.18B
79.41B
-
121.75B
21.55B
9.19B
-
16.84B
7.29B
54.86B
39.73B
3.49B
57.75B
-
112.61B
16.95B
- 12864000.00K
- 294000.0K
253.00M
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
97.99B
4.05B
116.65B
-
48.91B
34.7B
256.00M
- 619000.00K
- 519000.00K
- 4070000.00K
160.00M
- 443000.00K
-
2.72B
- 1638000.00K
- 5000.00K
76.00M
15.26B
15.18B
2.24B
- 625000.00K
1.61B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DELL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$40.14
$149.87
$158.42
$167.45
$177.00