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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:DCPH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DCPH
Name:
DECIPHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:DCPH)
Sector:
- 51352.00K
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. Steven Hoerter
Total Employees:
280
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -3797.85% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DECIPHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(DCPH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
16.73
One Month Price Target:
$16.82
Six Month Price Target :
$17.29
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.84
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.59
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.87
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$14.99
This week:
$12.83
This month :
$8.93
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.12B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
66.82M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.88%
-75.5%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.82
$21.15
$8.64
$12.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.95
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.16
$13.50
$14.30
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DCPH
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.19%
Comparison:
DCPH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -120.64% lower than the industry
& is -108.25% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DCPH
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
-0.01%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -101.17% below industry average
Classification:
DCPH, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
DCPH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.07%
Weekly Volatility:
11.34%
Monthly Volatility:
22.69%
Yearly Volatility:
78.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.26%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.70% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.42%
Weekly VaR:
-23.30%
Monthly VaR:
-46.60%
How Much Can the price of
DCPH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-41%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.83
This translates to price declining to:
$2.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DCPH is a 228.89% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 181.76% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 34.92% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DCPH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.99
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.606
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.857
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.61
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.718
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.827
Beta is -45.87% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is -6.17% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.101
Alpha is -363.32% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -642% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DCPH
Equity cost of capital:
0.099
Equity cost of capital is -4.29% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.56%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.45%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.45%
WACC is 20.38% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.12
-
EPS:
-$4.90
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.82%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -79.45% lower than the Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.41
EBITDA per share
-$4.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
DCPH
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
-
-
DCPH is -108.54% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
11.16
Price to sales ratio is 57.57% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.12
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
82.96%
Net income growth rate is -115.14% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-24.00%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-16.91%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -86.29% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1660.72
Interest coverage ratio is -23996.84% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
97.69%
Annual debt growth is 1383% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.224
Statistical significance of correlation:
DCPH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is -45.19% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.086
Kurtosis
72.048
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-4.526
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DCPH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
387%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-284.86%
Operating profit margin is 747.11% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
387%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-105.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is 957.11% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-74.08%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1885.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.69
Current ratio is 12.00% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-1122.8
Cash conversion cycle is -842.07% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.00%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
357.9K
Each employee generates -57% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1008.3K
Each employee generates -1165% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1019.9K
Each employee generates -1093% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 183.4K
Each employee generates 220% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
234.4K
Each employee generates 220% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 29.19%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 344.62% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
DCPH
KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KYMR)
DRNA
PRELUDE THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:PRLD)
QUANTERIX CORPORATION (XNAS:QTRX)
BLUEBIRD BIO, INC. (XNAS:BLUE)
NGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:NGM)
SORRENTO THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SRNE)
MACROGENICS, INC. (XNAS:MGNX)
SERES THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:MCRB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�17%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
100.22M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.09M
97.12M
248.77M
-
133.83M
-
2.93M
385.53M
81.00K
170.00K
3.07M
- 282323.00K
- 285475.00K
- 285558.00K
- 285558.00K
-
- 285558.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
783.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
14.27M
Change in Working Capital :
- 20720.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2561.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.21M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 51352.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
95.33M
161.22M
256.55M
23.15M
19.63M
20.50M
319.84M
43.67M
-
-
18.85M
-
3.11M
65.63M
-
385.46M
17.80M
2.93M
-
-
65.94M
86.67M
27.23M
-
27.23M
-
113.90M
586.00K
- 1101324.00K
- 563.0K
1.37B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
385.69M
271.57M
385.46M
180.07M
30.16M
- 65172.0K
59.65M
-
59.65M
-
-
-
-
83.00K
83.00K
- 114.00K
8.27M
95.33M
87.06M
- 51352.00K
-
- 51352.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DCPH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$17.84
$19.03
$20.29
$21.64
$23.08