_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Davita Inc. (XNYS:DVA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DVA
Name:
DAVITA INC. (XNYS:DVA)
Sector:
199.09M
Industry:
Medical Care Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Javier Rodriguez
Total Employees:
69,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 910.38% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DAVITA INC.(DVA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
87.8
One Month Price Target:
$88.36
Six Month Price Target :
$91.15
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$94.5
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$87.52
Price Upper limit ($) :
$88.18
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$83.86
This week:
$78.98
This month :
$70.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.06B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
91.30M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.28%
-15.01%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$106.10
$97.68
$69.50
$77.92
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$94.94
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$93.14
$80.64
$82.46
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DVA
Sharpe Ratio:
1.96%
Comparison:
DVA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -11.75% lower than the industry
& is -13.92% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DVA
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.05%
Yearly returns:
23.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -45.49% below industry average
Classification:
DVA, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
DVA has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.21%
Weekly Volatility:
4.95%
Monthly Volatility:
9.90%
Yearly Volatility:
34.28%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.08%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -6.07% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.49%
Weekly VaR:
-10.05%
Monthly VaR:
-20.09%
How Much Can the price of
DVA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-69.60%
This translates to price declining to:
$72.73
This translates to price declining to:
$26.69
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DVA is a 41.80% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 21.48% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -33.67% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DVA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.723
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.023
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.097
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.52
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.616
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.097
Beta is 3.43% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.067
Beta is 6.35% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
105.11%
Sustainable growth rate is 192.04% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.016
Alpha is -87.09% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 103% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DVA
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is 4.44% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.93%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.46%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.94%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.94%
WACC is -34.85% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$127.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.33
Annual revenue growth rate is 44.14% above the industry average
EPS:
$8.40
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
18.94%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 40.69% higher than the Medical Care Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$14.77
-
-
Debt per share
$123.87
EBITDA per share
$23.68
Valuation Analysis Today of
DVA
P/E Ratio:
10.88
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
154.68
P/E ratio is -92.96% lower than main peers & is -84.53% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $591.04
DVA is -85.14% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.69
Price to sales ratio is -67.41% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.33
Price to free cash flow: 5.94
Price to free cash flow ratio is -70.36% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
896.28%
Net income growth rate is 483.94% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1340.35%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1370.85%
Debt to assets ratio:
66.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
67.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 22.63% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.4
Interest coverage ratio is -62.83% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
6.98%
Annual debt growth is -93% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.41%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.513
Statistical significance of correlation:
DVA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.432
Stock price is 18.85% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.432
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.005
Kurtosis
6.224
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.456
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DVA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
123%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.57%
Operating profit margin is -304.05% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
123%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.83%
Effective tax rate is -9.14% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
107.04%
Return on equity (ROE) is 500.11% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.29%
Return on assets (ROA) is 21.01% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.0x
Current Ratio:
1.29
Current ratio is -29.78% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
58.5
Cash conversion cycle is 116.43% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.76%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
168.4K
Each employee generates -52% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
31.3K
Each employee generates -43% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
13.1K
Each employee generates -55% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.9K
Each employee generates -58% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
202.3K
Each employee generates -58% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DVA
Qiagen NV (XNYS:QGEN)
UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES, INC. (XNYS:UHS)
DR.REDDY'S LABORATORIES LTD (XNYS:RDY)
GINKGO BIOWORKS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:DNA)
ELANCO ANIMAL HEALTH INCORPORATED (XNYS:ELAN)
TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED (XNYS:TEVA)
BAUSCH HEALTH COMPANIES INC. (XNYS:BHC)
Teladoc Health, Inc. (XNYS:TDOC)
PENUMBRA, INC. (XNYS:PEN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�33%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
11.62B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.05B
3.56B
-
1.21B
1.21B
-
687.86M
1.90B
-
292.03M
687.86M
2.16B
1.69B
903.17M
1.40B
278.53M
903.17M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
172.94M
Differed Income Tax :
- 41.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
24.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 86708.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 66270.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 43454.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.38M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
322.20M
Investments in PP&E:
- 123108.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 8128.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 7796.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
327.50M
19.41M
346.91M
2.50B
107.72M
172.34M
3.13B
6.22B
7.07B
191.10M
285.65M
-
185.17M
13.96B
-
17.09B
433.14M
584.83M
99.86M
-
1.40B
2.42B
11.31B
108.95M
12.26B
-
14.68B
97.00K
516.46M
- 34870.0K
362.09M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
9.95B
843.77M
15.52B
305.06M
11.89B
11.6B
8.84M
11.82M
- 118366.00K
- 398990.00K
-
- 236733.00K
-
294.15M
- 341571.00K
3.36M
- 134379.00K
420.58M
554.96M
322.20M
- 123108.00K
199.09M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DVA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$94.97
$508.62
$547.42
$589.16
$634.10