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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Dave & Buster'S Entertainment, Inc. (XNAS:PLAY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PLAY
Name:
DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:PLAY)
Sector:
66.84M
Industry:
Entertainment
CEO:
Mr. Brian Jenkins
Total Employees:
13,783
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -35.89% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC.(PLAY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
42.03
One Month Price Target:
$42.44
Six Month Price Target :
$44.48
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$46.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$41.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$42.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$36.26
This week:
$29.13
This month :
$16.23
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
48.93M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
76.59%
-45.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$68.78
$56.40
$15.28
$27.66
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$52.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.73
$31.65
$34.33
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PLAY
Sharpe Ratio:
3.25%
Comparison:
PLAY, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 918.07% higher than the industry
& ratio is 42.60% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PLAY
Daily returns:
0.23%
Weekly returns:
1.15%
Monthly returns:
4.59%
Yearly returns:
6.78%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 713.02% above industry average
Classification:
PLAY, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.33
Statistical test of Returns:
PLAY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.80%
Weekly Volatility:
15.20%
Monthly Volatility:
30.39%
Yearly Volatility:
105.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.14%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.27% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.73%
Weekly VaR:
-30.69%
Monthly VaR:
-61.39%
How Much Can the price of
PLAY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-52%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.32
This translates to price declining to:
$6.30
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PLAY is a 333.26% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 271.17% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 98.93% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PLAY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.74
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.072
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.516
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.19
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.554
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.679
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.521
Beta is 14.18% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.34
Beta is 29.63% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.97%
Sustainable growth rate is -63.59% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.401
Alpha is -822.56% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2552% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PLAY
Equity cost of capital:
0.150
Equity cost of capital is 22.06% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.65%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.56%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.02%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.02%
WACC is -46.15% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$30.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
11.51
Annual revenue growth rate is -350.87% below industry average
EPS:
$3.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-9.69%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -130.63% lower than the Entertainment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.66
-
-
Debt per share
$36.69
EBITDA per share
$7.70
Valuation Analysis Today of
PLAY
P/E Ratio:
13.29
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.02
P/E ratio is -48.91% lower than main peers & is -50.82% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $85.42
PLAY is -50.80% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $11.20
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.13
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.38
Price to sales ratio is -47.85% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
11.51
Price to free cash flow: 9.03
Price to free cash flow ratio is -20.85% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-262.19%
Net income growth rate is 27.25% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.76%
Previous Dividend: $0.16
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.16
Previous Dividend: $0.32
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 02/10/2020
Previous dividend record date: 01/10/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/12/2019
Dividend History:
2020-01-09--$0.16
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-10-10--$0.16
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1004.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1022.90%
Debt to assets ratio:
77.45%
Net debt to assets ratio:
78.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 8.79% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.96
Interest coverage ratio is -89.30% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
194.99%
Annual debt growth is -49% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.21%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.466
Statistical significance of correlation:
PLAY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.508
Stock price is -8.41% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.508
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
34.53
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.639
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PLAY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
274%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.71%
Operating profit margin is 153.15% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
274%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.09%
Effective tax rate is 23.07% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
87.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is 69.09% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.73%
Return on assets (ROA) is 55.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.4x
Current Ratio:
0.4
Current ratio is -75.62% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-3.7
Cash conversion cycle is -107.72% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.90%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
108.1K
Each employee generates -89% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
27.3K
Each employee generates -92% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
11.3K
Each employee generates -90% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.8K
Each employee generates -13938% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
160.1K
Each employee generates -13938% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PLAY
JACK IN THE BOX INC. (XNAS:JACK)
XPEL, INC. (XNAS:XPEL)
BLOOMIN' BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:BLMN)
REE AUTOMOTIVE LTD (XNAS:REE)
MONRO, INC. (XNAS:MNRO)
SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION (XNAS:SNBR)
FARADAY FUTURE INTELLIGENT ELECTRIC INC. (XNAS:FFIE)
PROTERRA INC (XNAS:PTRA)
THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED (XNAS:CAKE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�25%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/1/22
Revenue:
1.49B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
445.44M
1.04B
-
86.71M
86.71M
-
480.81M
567.52M
-
47.34M
136.52M
376.66M
248.90M
155.99M
192.80M
36.81M
155.99M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
35.10M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4840.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.97M
Change in Working Capital :
21.35M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 167777.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.98M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
77.20M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
20.15M
-
20.15M
55.22M
22.81M
13.25M
111.44M
1.82B
272.55M
79.00M
-
7.45M
25.92M
2.21B
-
2.32B
39.42M
52.21M
13.34M
100.73M
86.86M
279.22M
1.80B
53.93M
1.86B
-
2.14B
607.00K
246.13M
- 7653.0K
- 60438.00K
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.01B
178.64M
2.32B
-
1.85B
1.8B
-
- 10305.00K
- 10305.00K
- 79000.00K
-
- 236.00K
-
20.61M
- 58628.00K
-
8.26M
20.15M
11.89M
77.20M
- 10359.00K
66.84M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PLAY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$57.39
$64.09
$71.57
$79.92
$89.25