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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Daseke, Inc. (XNAS:DSKE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DSKE
Name:
DASEKE, INC. (XNAS:DSKE)
Sector:
20.40M
Industry:
Trucking
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Easter
Total Employees:
4,006
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -171.94% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF DASEKE, INC.(DSKE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRUCKING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.96
One Month Price Target:
$6.03
Six Month Price Target :
$6.37
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$6.77
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.03
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.3
This week:
$4.49
This month :
$3.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
381.03M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
63.51M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
67.95%
-30.95%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.01
$7.59
$2.91
$4.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.13
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.83
$4.78
$5.09
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DSKE
Sharpe Ratio:
3.97%
Comparison:
DSKE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 23.93% higher than the industry
& ratio is 74.20% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DSKE
Daily returns:
0.23%
Weekly returns:
1.13%
Monthly returns:
4.53%
Yearly returns:
31.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 72.74% above industry average
Classification:
DSKE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
DSKE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.48%
Weekly Volatility:
12.26%
Monthly Volatility:
24.53%
Yearly Volatility:
84.97%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.28%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.62% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.04%
Weekly VaR:
-24.68%
Monthly VaR:
-49.36%
How Much Can the price of
DSKE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-41%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.51
This translates to price declining to:
$0.89
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DSKE is a 248.38% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 198.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 68.43% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DSKE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.03
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.06
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.499
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.64
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.744
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.05
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.182
Beta is 71.45% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.38
Beta is 46.77% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
35.26%
Sustainable growth rate is 56.93% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.374
Alpha is 97.89% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2378% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DSKE
Equity cost of capital:
0.170
Equity cost of capital is 35.08% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.37%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.35%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.35%
WACC is -12.39% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$25.89
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.89
Annual revenue growth rate is -106.38% below industry average
EPS:
$1.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.24
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -178.19% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$9.54
EBITDA per share
$3.52
Valuation Analysis Today of
DSKE
P/E Ratio:
7.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
36.01
P/E ratio is -78.90% lower than main peers & is -54.05% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $17.03
DSKE is -65.01% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.23
Price to sales ratio is -98.74% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.89
Price to free cash flow: 2.67
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-1163.61%
Net income growth rate is -20504.63% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.57%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
302.60%
Net debt to equity ratio:
270.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
53.63%
Net debt to assets ratio:
47.95%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 12.37% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.58
Interest coverage ratio is -94.83% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-26.59%
Annual debt growth is -134% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 41.93%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.286
Statistical significance of correlation:
DSKE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is -36.75% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.041
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.13
Kurtosis
37.102
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.722
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DSKE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.46%
Operating profit margin is -100.66% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.36%
Effective tax rate is 25.54% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
38.11%
Return on equity (ROE) is 128.62% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.75%
Return on assets (ROA) is -0.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
1.64
Current ratio is -60.69% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
37.5
Cash conversion cycle is 29.56% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.50%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
410.4K
Each employee generates 56% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
55.8K
Each employee generates 10% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
19.0K
Each employee generates -19% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.1K
Each employee generates -6% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
185.8K
Each employee generates -6% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
DSKE
LMRKN
XONE
CONCRETE PUMPING HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:BBCP)
ECOLW
WILLDAN GROUP, INC. (XNAS:WLDN)
POWELL INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:POWL)
PARK-OHIO HOLDINGS CORP. (XNAS:PKOH)
HAYNES INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:HAYN)
AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:AMSC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.64B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.39B
257.60M
-
138.90M
140.60M
1.70M
10.60M
151.20M
300.00K
29.50M
87.50M
223.50M
122.70M
76.30M
106.50M
30.20M
76.30M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
21.60M
Differed Income Tax :
300.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.20M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 26400.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 8900.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
29.20M
Investments in PP&E:
- 8800.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 19300.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
153.50M
-
153.50M
204.10M
4.10M
23.70M
385.40M
506.80M
148.00M
85.20M
-
-
4.20M
744.20M
-
1.13B
20.20M
89.30M
11.90M
-
125.10M
234.60M
605.80M
3.50M
694.80M
-
929.40M
-
- 265000.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.54B
200.20M
1.13B
-
695.10M
541.6M
-
11.50M
- 16600.00K
- 437400.00K
-
-
- 1200.00K
432.30M
- 6300.00K
- 300.00K
6.00M
153.50M
147.50M
29.20M
- 8800.00K
20.40M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DSKE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$6.80
$17.57
$19.96
$22.68
$25.76