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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cytokinetics, Incorporated (XNAS:CYTK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CYTK
Name:
CYTOKINETICS, INCORPORATED (XNAS:CYTK)
Sector:
- 27753.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Robert Blum
Total Employees:
253
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 47.95% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CYTOKINETICS, INCORPORATED(CYTK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
54.06
One Month Price Target:
$54.38
Six Month Price Target :
$55.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$57.88
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$53.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$54.7
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.96
This week:
$42.66
This month :
$31.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.63B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
94.14M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
40.41%
-42.14%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$77.67
$66.48
$30.45
$41.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$62.84
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.46
$45.25
$47.66
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CYTK
Sharpe Ratio:
7.53%
Comparison:
CYTK, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 287.20% higher than the industry
& ratio is 230.32% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CYTK
Daily returns:
0.37%
Weekly returns:
1.84%
Monthly returns:
7.36%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 250.25% above industry average
Classification:
CYTK, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.07
Statistical test of Returns:
CYTK has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.77%
Weekly Volatility:
10.67%
Monthly Volatility:
21.34%
Yearly Volatility:
73.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.74%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.44% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.43%
Weekly VaR:
-21.09%
Monthly VaR:
-42.18%
How Much Can the price of
CYTK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$36.19
This translates to price declining to:
$8.11
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CYTK is a 197.71% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 155.04% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.37% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CYTK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.839
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.187
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.924
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.749
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.63
Beta is -35.55% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -8.79% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.780
Alpha is 449.90% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4965% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CYTK
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is -6.28% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.89%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.81%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.81%
WACC is 3.56% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.69
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
43.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -91.02% below industry average
EPS:
-$3.22
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.89%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -0.90% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$3.27
EBITDA per share
-$2.37
Valuation Analysis Today of
CYTK
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.62
-
-
CYTK is -118.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
78.27
Price to sales ratio is 93.23% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
43.78
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
37.24%
Net income growth rate is -47.24% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
264.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
177.85%
Debt to assets ratio:
35.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.15%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -14.76% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-6.99
Interest coverage ratio is -94.09% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
94.90%
Annual debt growth is -30% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 13.45%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.312
Statistical significance of correlation:
CYTK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -8.24% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.043
Kurtosis
20.096
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.445
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CYTK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-3901%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-343.79%
Operating profit margin is -19.80% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-3901%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-221.62%
Return on equity (ROE) is 286.54% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-30.09%
Return on assets (ROA) is 47.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
9.33
Current ratio is 15.23% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.49%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
257.0K
Each employee generates -84% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 880.3K
Each employee generates -328% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1018.4K
Each employee generates -896% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 109.7K
Each employee generates -174% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
919.9K
Each employee generates -174% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 64.97%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1910.87% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CYTK
KURA ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:KURA)
APPLIED MOLECULAR TRANSPORT INC. (XNAS:AMTI)
OCUGEN, INC. (XNAS:OCGN)
Genetron Holdings Limited (XNAS:GTH)
ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ARQT)
MORPHIC HOLDING, INC. (XNAS:MORF)
ATEA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:AVIR)
SILK ROAD MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:SILK)
GenMark Diagnostics, Inc. (XLON:0IUT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�29%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
65.03M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
45.94M
- 44787.00K
128.38M
114.28M
114.28M
-
-
242.65M
456.00K
31.86M
3.08M
- 222716.00K
- 223559.00K
- 257655.00K
- 257655.00K
-
- 257655.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.34M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
8.99M
Change in Working Capital :
40.49M
Accounts Receivables:
50.76M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
11.82M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 26811.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 942.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 193127.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
115.42M
493.55M
608.97M
6.06M
-
8.50M
623.53M
148.39M
-
-
77.08M
-
7.26M
232.73M
-
856.25M
19.84M
14.49M
-
-
32.52M
66.85M
307.70M
278.45M
673.15M
-
739.99M
85.00K
- 1286484.00K
- 3589.0K
1.41B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
288.59M
116.26M
856.25M
570.64M
322.19M
206.8M
129.79M
-
- 64279.00K
- 47799.00K
-
-
-
141.65M
93.85M
-
2.76M
115.42M
112.67M
- 26811.00K
- 942.00K
- 27753.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CYTK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$58.17
$27.20
$29.12
$31.17
$33.37