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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Curtiss-Wright Corporation (XNYS:CW) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CW
Name:
CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION (XNYS:CW)
Sector:
- 135211.00K
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Mr. David Adams
Total Employees:
7,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2.17% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION(CW) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
141.69
One Month Price Target:
$142.71
Six Month Price Target :
$147.81
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$153.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$141.12
Price Upper limit ($) :
$142.35
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$134.31
This week:
$125.18
This month :
$108.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.54B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
38.39M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.81%
-17.9%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$175.95
$160.27
$107.43
$123.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$155.17
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$151.83
$128.17
$131.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CW
Sharpe Ratio:
0.92%
Comparison:
CW, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -51.58% lower than the industry
& is -59.75% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CW
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.65%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -52.34% below industry average
Classification:
CW, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
CW has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.55%
Weekly Volatility:
5.71%
Monthly Volatility:
11.41%
Yearly Volatility:
39.54%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.88%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.40% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.21%
Weekly VaR:
-11.65%
Monthly VaR:
-23.30%
How Much Can the price of
CW
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.71%
This translates to price declining to:
$113.02
This translates to price declining to:
$27.33
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CW is a 64.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.88% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.70% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CW
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.29
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.775
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.096
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.888
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.795
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.859
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.148
Beta is 12.08% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is 0.39% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.62%
Sustainable growth rate is -21.92% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.042
Alpha is -197.62% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -268% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CW
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is 0.28% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.26%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.06%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.42%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.42%
WACC is -76.93% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$64.29
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.94
Annual revenue growth rate is -52.22% below industry average
EPS:
$6.20
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-2.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -196.96% lower than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.34
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 15.01%
Equity growth rate per share is 39.03% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$28.56
EBITDA per share
$12.54
Valuation Analysis Today of
CW
P/E Ratio:
21.68
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.2
P/E ratio is 7.31% higher than main peers & is -21.22% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $170.59
CW is -16.94% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $17.13
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.82
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.2
Price to sales ratio is -46.88% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.94
Price to free cash flow: 22.35
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
2.36%
Net income growth rate is 75.20% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.52%
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.73
Expected next dividend best case: $0.20
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.18
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.14%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.19
2021-11-23--$0.18
2021-06-17--$0.18
2022-03-30--$0.18
2021-09-29--$0.18
2021-03-29--$0.17
Dividend growth rate is -67.31% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
59.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
62.86%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.82%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.43%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.09
Interest coverage ratio is -38.03% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
10.13%
Annual debt growth is -86% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.95%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.717
Statistical significance of correlation:
CW has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is 12.80% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.06
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.089
Kurtosis
7.369
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.276
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CW
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
150%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.51%
Operating profit margin is -159.91% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
150%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.40%
Effective tax rate is 30.58% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.43%
Return on equity (ROE) is 299.69% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is 29.41% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.64
Current ratio is -45.82% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
73.9
Cash conversion cycle is 20.10% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.53%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
316.5K
Each employee generates -92% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
61.7K
Each employee generates -92% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
31.8K
Each employee generates -92% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 17.3K
Each employee generates -134% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
356.3K
Each employee generates -134% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 18.28%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 69.31% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CW
HAYWARD HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:HAYW)
TRINET GROUP, INC. (XNYS:TNET)
Southeast Airport Group (XNYS:ASR)
nVent Electric plc (XNYS:NVT)
FLOWSERVE CORPORATION (XNYS:FLS)
VALMONT INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:VMI)
MAXIMUS, INC. (XNYS:MMS)
MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC. (XNYS:MSM)
Pacific Airport Group, S.A.B. de CV (XNYS:PAC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.47B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.54B
925.00M
87.18M
340.51M
455.96M
115.45M
-
543.14M
-
39.81M
113.15M
481.50M
358.13M
248.38M
328.54M
80.16M
248.38M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
27.36M
Differed Income Tax :
803.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.81M
Change in Working Capital :
- 198161.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 74033.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.19M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 124315.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 10896.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 5062.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
136.68M
-
136.68M
661.13M
448.12M
63.94M
1.31B
502.59M
1.46B
523.91M
-
-
294.09M
2.78B
-
4.09B
168.77M
202.50M
1.48M
224.68M
204.30M
800.25M
1.10B
192.97M
1.44B
-
2.24B
49.19M
2.94B
- 191524.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.09B
1.85B
4.09B
-
1.30B
1.2B
-
5.57M
- 10391.00K
- 121198.00K
-
- 18857.00K
-
246.23M
106.18M
- 5795.00K
- 34322.00K
136.68M
171.00M
- 124315.00K
- 10896.00K
- 135211.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CW
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$159.20
$172.96
$187.91
$204.15
$221.80