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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (XNYS:CFR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CFR
Name:
CULLEN/FROST BANKERS, INC. (XNYS:CFR)
Sector:
332.83M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Philip Green
Total Employees:
4,553
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 169.72% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CULLEN/FROST BANKERS, INC.(CFR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
131.25
One Month Price Target:
$132.12
Six Month Price Target :
$136.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$141.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$130.73
Price Upper limit ($) :
$132.
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$123.73
This week:
$114.42
This month :
$97.6
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.52B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
64.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.23%
-21.36%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$166.15
$150.03
$96.35
$112.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$144.78
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$141.34
$117.68
$121.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CFR
Sharpe Ratio:
2.77%
Comparison:
CFR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 125.18% higher than the industry
& ratio is 21.36% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CFR
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.44%
Monthly returns:
1.74%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 91.90% above industry average
Classification:
CFR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
CFR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.83%
Weekly Volatility:
6.34%
Monthly Volatility:
12.67%
Yearly Volatility:
43.91%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.65%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.73%
Weekly VaR:
-12.82%
Monthly VaR:
-25.64%
How Much Can the price of
CFR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-88.82%
This translates to price declining to:
$102.81
This translates to price declining to:
$14.68
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CFR is a 80.96% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 55.03% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.79% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CFR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.18
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.764
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.08
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.118
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.796
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.991
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.865
Beta is 36.28% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 22.27% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.85%
Sustainable growth rate is -35.92% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.097
Alpha is 737.58% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 619% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CFR
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is 15.08% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.13%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.18
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.23
Annual revenue growth rate is -83.59% below industry average
EPS:
$6.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.73%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -106.08% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.92
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.02%
Equity growth rate per share is -66.37% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$7.51
Valuation Analysis Today of
CFR
P/E Ratio:
20.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
6.91
P/E ratio is 193.13% higher than main peers & is 63.16% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $80.28
CFR is 63.48% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $37.58
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $28.30
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.11
Price to sales ratio is 89.70% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.23
Price to free cash flow: 12.02
Price to free cash flow ratio is -39.69% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-2.52%
Net income growth rate is -104.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.51%
Dividend yeild: 2.29%
Previous Dividend: $0.75
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.75
Previous Dividend: $3.00
Expected next dividend best case: $0.77
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.73
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.73
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.75
2021-11-29--$0.75
2021-05-27--$0.72
2022-02-25--$0.75
2021-08-30--$0.75
2021-02-25--$0.72
Dividend growth rate is -97.62% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1001.28%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-20.45%
Debt to assets ratio:
90.92%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.51%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -45.39% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
26.49
Interest coverage ratio is 3095.62% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.672
Statistical significance of correlation:
CFR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 34.23% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.057
Kurtosis
9.13
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.058
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CFR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
10.55%
Effective tax rate is -51.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.66%
Return on equity (ROE) is -27.40% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.64%
Return on assets (ROA) is -72.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
11.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.65%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
227.9K
Each employee generates -40% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
105.7K
Each employee generates -53% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
71.8K
Each employee generates -49% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
73.1K
Each employee generates -12% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
144.0K
Each employee generates -12% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CFR
Banco Santander Mexico SA Institucion de Banca Multiple Grupo Financiero Santander Mexico (XNYS:BSMX)
Banco Santander-Chile (XNYS:BSAC)
FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:FAF)
Woori Financial Group Inc. (XNYS:WF)
RNR-PF
ASSURANT, INC. (XNYS:AIZ)
BANK OF CHILE (XNYS:BCH)
REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA, INCORPORATED (XNYS:RZA)
VOYA FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:VOYA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�42%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.04B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
375.78M
410.32M
-
-
-
762.16M
18.17M
97.55M
481.35M
-
327.06M
365.63M
38.56M
327.06M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
45.21M
Differed Income Tax :
- 432.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.11M
Change in Working Capital :
- 15744547.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
17.73B
Other Non-Cash Items:
16.03B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
332.83M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
772.10M
16.18B
16.96B
772.19M
-
-
17.73B
-
654.95M
720.00K
-
-
-
655.67M
34.22B
51.30B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
47.52B
47.52B
642.00K
3.00B
- 371790.0K
1.14B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
3.78B
51.30B
-
-
- 772095.0K
-
- 3259700.00K
- 3259700.00K
-
-
- 996.00K
- 1669.00K
803.62M
800.96M
-
- 2125917.00K
14.46B
16.58B
332.83M
-
332.83M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CFR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$132.12
$142.58
$153.87
$166.06
$179.21