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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cue Health Inc (XNAS:HLTH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HLTH
Name:
Cue Health Inc (XNAS:HLTH)
Sector:
17.47M
Industry:
Health Information Services
CEO:
Total Employees:
1,585
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -115.83% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CUE HEALTH INC(HLTH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HEALTH INFORMATION SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
3.29
One Month Price Target:
$3.31
Six Month Price Target :
$3.43
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.57
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$3.21
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.84
This week:
$2.28
This month :
$1.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
496.31M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
148.15M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.88%
-18.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.39
$4.48
$1.19
$2.10
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.18
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.99
$2.40
$2.59
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HLTH
Sharpe Ratio:
-8.82%
Comparison:
HLTH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -959.11% lower than the industry
& is -487.13% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HLTH
Daily returns:
-0.56%
Weekly returns:
-2.78%
Monthly returns:
-11.13%
Yearly returns:
5.07%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -2731.18% below industry average
Classification:
HLTH, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
HLTH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.40%
Weekly Volatility:
14.32%
Monthly Volatility:
28.64%
Yearly Volatility:
99.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.71%
Weekly VaR:
-30.65%
Monthly VaR:
-61.31%
How Much Can the price of
HLTH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-61%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.29
This translates to price declining to:
$0.49
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HLTH is a 332.72% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 270.71% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 88.30% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HLTH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.26
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.199
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.095
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.206
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.07
Beta is 17.76% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.87
Beta is 44.83% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.79%
Sustainable growth rate is -35.41% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-1.453
Alpha is 3500.23% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -9248% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HLTH
Equity cost of capital:
0.118
Equity cost of capital is 29.33% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.21%
Before-tax cost of debt:
16.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
12.88%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
12.88%
WACC is 47.31% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.37
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.67
Annual revenue growth rate is 2071.21% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.34
EBITDA per share
$1.18
Valuation Analysis Today of
HLTH
P/E Ratio:
8.28
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
135.88
P/E ratio is -93.91% lower than main peers & is -97.73% lower than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.61
Price to sales ratio is -91.92% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.67
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-445.21%
Net income growth rate is -125.40% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
6.93%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-50.47%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-37.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -85.05% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.74
Interest coverage ratio is 17.80% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
170.64%
Annual debt growth is 310% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.37%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.033
Statistical significance of correlation:
HLTH does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.376
Stock price is -91.29% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.376
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.01
Kurtosis
2.036
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.54
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HLTH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
208%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.21%
Operating profit margin is -173.97% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
208%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.86%
Effective tax rate is 35.59% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.30%
Return on equity (ROE) is -477.41% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is -622.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.66
Current ratio is -35.05% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
73.3
Cash conversion cycle is 49.02% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
17.97%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
501.9K
Each employee generates 20% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
110.4K
Each employee generates -369% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
56.3K
Each employee generates -171% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.0K
Each employee generates -13% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
178.1K
Each employee generates -13% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 50.39%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -484.90% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
HLTH
RA MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC. (XNYS:RMED)
RNN
APHB
IMMUNOCELLULAR THERAPEUTICS, LTD. (OTCM:IMUC)
DHR-PB
ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XFRA:AST)
Constellation Software Inc. (XTSE:CSU)
ENZO BIOCHEM, INC. (XNYS:ENZ)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
795.56M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
363.24M
432.32M
71.62M
106.70M
169.60M
62.90M
274.59M
515.80M
514.00K
9.86M
43.12M
174.96M
105.10M
89.22M
121.98M
32.76M
89.22M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.61M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
16.04M
Change in Working Capital :
16.00K
Accounts Receivables:
28.76M
Other Working Capital:
- 1609.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.06M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
31.52M
Investments in PP&E:
- 12782.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
426.47M
-
426.47M
75.83M
132.57M
66.55M
701.41M
266.96M
-
9.24M
-
-
6.16M
282.36M
-
983.77M
48.84M
10.21M
15.24M
84.63M
48.06M
191.74M
50.25M
6.36M
66.89M
-
258.63M
1.00K
- 21215.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
602.49M
725.14M
983.77M
-
60.47M
- 365998.0K
-
- 1273.00K
- 14055.00K
- 696.00K
-
-
-
- 177.00K
- 873.00K
-
16.59M
440.30M
423.71M
31.52M
- 14055.00K
17.47M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HLTH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$3.59
$3.89
$4.22
$4.58
$4.97