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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cubesmart (XNYS:CUBE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CUBE
Name:
CUBESMART (XNYS:CUBE)
Sector:
130.74M
Industry:
REIT�Industrial
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Marr
Total Employees:
2,892
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 34.84% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CUBESMART(CUBE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
45.96
One Month Price Target:
$46.09
Six Month Price Target :
$46.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.54
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$45.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$46.15
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.12
This week:
$41.86
This month :
$37.75
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.45B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
224.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.88%
-17.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$54.47
$50.52
$37.45
$41.40
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$49.23
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.39
$42.68
$43.53
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CUBE
Sharpe Ratio:
3.56%
Comparison:
CUBE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 47.04% higher than the industry
& ratio is 56.19% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CUBE
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.59%
Yearly returns:
14.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 35.59% above industry average
Classification:
CUBE, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.27
Statistical test of Returns:
CUBE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.98%
Weekly Volatility:
4.44%
Monthly Volatility:
8.87%
Yearly Volatility:
30.73%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.26%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -36.70% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.99%
Weekly VaR:
-8.93%
Monthly VaR:
-17.86%
How Much Can the price of
CUBE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-61.87%
This translates to price declining to:
$39.12
This translates to price declining to:
$17.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CUBE is a 26.07% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 8.00% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CUBE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.51
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.714
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.01
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.54
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.623
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.057
Beta is -51.69% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.735
Beta is -30.54% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.124
Alpha is 111.31% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 791% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CUBE
Equity cost of capital:
0.066
Equity cost of capital is -18.79% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.57%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.03%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.03%
WACC is -20.63% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.89
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.51
Annual revenue growth rate is 53.21% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.05
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.99%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -21.83% lower than the REIT�Industrial industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.10
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -913.56% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$13.37
EBITDA per share
$1.91
Valuation Analysis Today of
CUBE
P/E Ratio:
42.95
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.14
P/E ratio is 64.32% higher than main peers & is -36.21% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $70.69
CUBE is -34.98% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $72.97
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $45.37
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
11.83
Price to sales ratio is -11.69% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.51
Price to free cash flow: 21.87
Price to free cash flow ratio is -20.22% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
23.53%
Net income growth rate is 25.66% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 43.93%
Dividend yeild: 3.55%
Previous Dividend: $0.43
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.43
Previous Dividend: $1.63
Expected next dividend best case: $0.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.39
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.36
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.95%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.43
2021-12-31--$0.43
2021-06-30--$0.34
2022-03-31--$0.43
2021-09-30--$0.34
2021-03-31--$0.34
Dividend growth rate is -132.09% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
105.42%
Net debt to equity ratio:
111.66%
Debt to assets ratio:
46.45%
Net debt to assets ratio:
49.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.43% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.23
Interest coverage ratio is -10500.13% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
35.82%
Annual debt growth is 225% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.56%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.597
Statistical significance of correlation:
CUBE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.617
Stock price is -3.30% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.617
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.04
Kurtosis
11.339
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.01
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CUBE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
280%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
34.24%
Operating profit margin is 6.50% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
280%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is -7.01% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.40%
Return on assets (ROA) is -12.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
0.09
Current ratio is -96.88% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.00%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
301.6K
Each employee generates -82% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
148.4K
Each employee generates -89% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
76.0K
Each employee generates -89% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
45.2K
Each employee generates -77% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.2M
Each employee generates -77% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CUBE
LIFE STORAGE, INC. (XNYS:LSI)
REXFORD INDUSTRIAL REALTY, INC (XNYS:REXR)
ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. (XNYS:NLY)
FEDERAL REALTY INVESTMENT TRUST (XNYS:FRT)
FRT-PC
JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED (XNYS:JLL)
HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:HST)
VER-PF
STORE CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNYS:STOR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�33%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
872.29M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
261.44M
610.85M
-
51.42M
51.42M
-
260.80M
312.21M
-
82.04M
127.32M
429.26M
298.63M
219.91M
225.76M
-
219.91M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
83.51M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.19M
Change in Working Capital :
7.34M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 581.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
130.74M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 5.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
7.89M
-
7.89M
22.47M
-
13.29M
43.65M
50.31M
-
-
117.03M
-
6.17B
6.42B
-
6.46B
197.69M
185.40M
-
-
97.91M
481.00M
3.00B
1.09M
3.04B
-
3.52B
2.24M
- 1266804.00K
- 551.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
573.66M
2.85B
6.37B
-
3.19B
3.2B
-
- 9083.00K
- 9088.00K
- 176643.00K
-
- 123.00K
- 96605.00K
148.87M
- 124502.00K
-
- 2855.00K
10.46M
13.32M
130.74M
-
130.74M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CUBE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$49.11
$50.80
$52.54
$54.35
$56.21