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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Csx Corporation (XNAS:CSX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CSX
Name:
CSX Corporation (XNAS:CSX)
Sector:
968.00M
Industry:
Railroads
CEO:
Mr. James Foote
Total Employees:
21,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -7.66% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CSX CORPORATION(CSX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RAILROADS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
31.24
One Month Price Target:
$31.45
Six Month Price Target :
$32.5
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.77
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.88
This week:
$28.21
This month :
$25.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
67.43B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
2.14B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.45%
-15.55%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.53
$34.62
$24.95
$27.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$33.68
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.06
$28.79
$29.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CSX
Sharpe Ratio:
2.48%
Comparison:
CSX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 12.41% higher than the industry
& ratio is 8.69% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CSX
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.24%
Yearly returns:
13.71%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 8.44% above industry average
Classification:
CSX, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
CSX has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.14%
Weekly Volatility:
4.79%
Monthly Volatility:
9.58%
Yearly Volatility:
33.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.47%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -31.46% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.34%
Weekly VaR:
-9.70%
Monthly VaR:
-19.40%
How Much Can the price of
CSX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-67.21%
This translates to price declining to:
$26.10
This translates to price declining to:
$10.25
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CSX is a 36.93% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.30% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CSX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.20
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.862
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.219
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.615
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.773
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.882
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.067
Beta is 12.86% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.292
Beta is -6.86% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
20.64%
Sustainable growth rate is 28.78% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.035
Alpha is 103.56% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 221% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CSX
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is -5.06% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.82%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.26%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.37%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.37%
WACC is -7.15% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.13
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.07
Annual revenue growth rate is 222.31% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.36%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -32.01% lower than the Railroads industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.53
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 21.85%
Equity growth rate per share is -3.43% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$7.70
EBITDA per share
$3.41
Valuation Analysis Today of
CSX
P/E Ratio:
17.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.16
P/E ratio is -43.98% lower than main peers & is -17.89% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.42
CSX is -16.51% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $11.62
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.42
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.1
Price to sales ratio is -1.81% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.07
Price to free cash flow: 20.47
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
24.62%
Net income growth rate is 52.31% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.54%
Dividend yeild: 1.24%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.39
Expected next dividend best case: $0.17
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.03
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -3.95%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.10
2021-11-29--$0.09
2021-06-29--$0.09
2022-02-25--$0.10
2021-08-30--$0.09
2021-05-27--$0.09
Dividend growth rate is -168.02% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
125.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
112.83%
Debt to assets ratio:
40.78%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.77%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -35.65% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.17
Interest coverage ratio is 28.23% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.84%
Annual debt growth is -170% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.781
Statistical significance of correlation:
CSX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.743
Stock price is 5.08% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.743
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.013
Kurtosis
12.166
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.046
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CSX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
162%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
44.01%
Operating profit margin is 89.40% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
162%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.51%
Effective tax rate is -1.34% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
29.84%
Return on equity (ROE) is 20.98% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.73%
Return on assets (ROA) is 30.16% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.46
Current ratio is 28.28% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-14.2
Cash conversion cycle is -126.07% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
604.7K
Each employee generates 5% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
336.2K
Each employee generates 21% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
181.3K
Each employee generates 22% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
44.6K
Each employee generates 38% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.7M
Each employee generates 38% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CSX
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING, INC. (XNAS:ADP)
PAYCHEX, INC. (XNAS:PAYX)
CINTAS CORPORATION (XNAS:CTAS)
Fastenal Company (XNAS:FAST)
VERISK ANALYTICS, INC. (XNAS:VRSK)
PACCAR INC (XNAS:PCAR)
COPART, INC. (XNAS:CPRT)
RYANAIR HOLDINGS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:RYAAY)
EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC (XNAS:EXPD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�50%
Hold�29%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
13.12B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.83B
5.30B
-
-
-
-
78.00M
-
-
717.00M
1.44B
7.30B
5.78B
3.93B
5.14B
1.21B
3.93B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
360.00M
Differed Income Tax :
37.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
66.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 131000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 23000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.30B
Investments in PP&E:
- 331000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 9000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 19000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.94B
96.00M
2.03B
1.28B
351.00M
97.00M
3.76B
33.48B
-
-
2.14B
-
619.00M
36.70B
-
40.45B
1.05B
317.00M
359.00M
-
1.21B
2.58B
16.50B
759.00M
24.68B
-
27.26B
2.17B
11.28B
- 377000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
7.83B
13.18B
40.44B
2.24B
16.81B
14.9B
-
- 9000.00K
- 368000.00K
- 6000.00K
-
- 1016000.00K
- 218000.00K
6.00M
- 1234000.00K
-
- 303000.00K
1.94B
2.24B
1.30B
- 331000.00K
968.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CSX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$43.65
$47.18
$50.99
$55.12
$59.58