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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Csg Systems International, Inc. (XNAS:CSGS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CSGS
Name:
CSG SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:CSGS)
Sector:
- 15924.00K
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Bret Griess
Total Employees:
5,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 10.01% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CSG SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL, INC.(CSGS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
56.9
One Month Price Target:
$57.16
Six Month Price Target :
$58.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$59.99
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$56.73
Price Upper limit ($) :
$57.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$54.77
This week:
$52.14
This month :
$47.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.81B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.20M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.01%
-14.62%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$66.78
$62.26
$47.02
$51.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$60.79
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$59.83
$53.00
$53.97
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CSGS
Sharpe Ratio:
0.64%
Comparison:
CSGS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -61.14% lower than the industry
& is -72.13% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CSGS
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.41%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -65.82% below industry average
Classification:
CSGS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.52
Statistical test of Returns:
CSGS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.83%
Weekly Volatility:
4.10%
Monthly Volatility:
8.19%
Yearly Volatility:
28.37%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.67%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.49% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.74%
Weekly VaR:
-8.36%
Monthly VaR:
-16.73%
How Much Can the price of
CSGS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-57.95%
This translates to price declining to:
$48.61
This translates to price declining to:
$23.92
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CSGS is a 18.08% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 1.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -45.03% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CSGS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.81
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.582
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.823
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.598
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.333
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.449
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.261
Beta is -35.82% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -27.21% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.29%
Sustainable growth rate is -97.49% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.038
Alpha is -204.40% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -240% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CSGS
Equity cost of capital:
0.087
Equity cost of capital is -19.25% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.42%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.47%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.74%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.74%
WACC is -13.46% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$32.86
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.42
Annual revenue growth rate is -70.69% below industry average
EPS:
$1.84
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-4.32%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -114.33% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.44
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 18.21%
Equity growth rate per share is -802.21% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.22
EBITDA per share
$5.39
Valuation Analysis Today of
CSGS
P/E Ratio:
40.48
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.68
P/E ratio is 64.01% higher than main peers & is -37.95% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $120.03
CSGS is -52.60% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $12.51
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.36
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.73
Price to sales ratio is -84.23% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.42
Price to free cash flow: 16.55
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
11.01%
Net income growth rate is -99.87% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 15.11%
Dividend yeild: 1.81%
Previous Dividend: $0.27
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.27
Previous Dividend: $1.03
Expected next dividend best case: $0.28
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.25
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.25
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -8.84%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.27
2021-12-02--$0.25
2021-06-11--$0.25
2022-03-17--$0.27
2021-09-14--$0.25
2021-03-19--$0.25
Dividend growth rate is -235.60% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
48.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
71.65%
Debt to assets ratio:
15.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
22.57%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -77.96% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.51
Interest coverage ratio is -104.98% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
25.19%
Annual debt growth is -77% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 54.94%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.418
Statistical significance of correlation:
CSGS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -12.95% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.041
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.044
Kurtosis
8.251
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.89
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CSGS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
193%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.33%
Operating profit margin is -187.00% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
193%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.39%
Effective tax rate is -12.59% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.33%
Return on equity (ROE) is -86.58% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is -219.16% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.06
Current ratio is -54.39% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-23.8
Cash conversion cycle is -121.13% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.49%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
203.4K
Each employee generates -48% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
33.4K
Each employee generates -49% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
11.3K
Each employee generates -46% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.1K
Each employee generates -115% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
118.6K
Each employee generates -115% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 9.64%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -471.81% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CSGS
ARRAY TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:ARRY)
INFINERA CORPORATION (XNAS:INFN)
XPERI HOLDING CORPORATION (XNAS:XPER)
FORMULA SYSTEMS (1985) LTD (XNAS:FORTY)
CYXTERA TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:CYXT)
CORSAIR GAMING, INC. (XNAS:CRSR)
CAMTEK LTD (XNAS:CAMT)
Sapiens International Corporation N.V. (XNAS:SPNS)
Sterling Check Corp. (XNAS:STER)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.06B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
548.09M
509.68M
135.46M
-
223.22M
-
24.86M
383.54M
371.00K
16.50M
75.96M
173.45M
109.22M
58.81M
80.99M
22.18M
58.81M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.01M
Differed Income Tax :
- 55.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.58M
Change in Working Capital :
- 55372.00K
Accounts Receivables:
46.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 12868.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
18.18M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 5549.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
181.46M
6.13M
187.59M
289.36M
-
209.82M
686.78M
142.65M
319.03M
83.71M
-
8.76M
62.40M
616.56M
-
1.30B
35.19M
275.33M
800.00K
92.31M
244.04M
646.88M
200.28M
18.12M
242.29M
-
889.16M
709.00K
923.39M
- 39537.0K
- 474024.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
931.63M
410.54M
1.30B
-
475.61M
294.2M
21.89M
- 10375.00K
11.51M
- 244176.00K
650.00K
- 23660.00K
- 8885.00K
221.46M
- 54614.00K
1.35M
- 47300.00K
344.60M
391.90M
- 5549.00K
- 10375.00K
- 15924.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CSGS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$66.17
$69.77
$73.56
$77.56
$81.78