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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Crown Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:CCK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CCK
Name:
CROWN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:CCK)
Sector:
- 418000.00K
Industry:
Packaging & Containers
CEO:
Mr. Timothy Donahue
Total Employees:
26,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2.41% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CROWN HOLDINGS, INC.(CCK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGING & CONTAINERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
91.37
One Month Price Target:
$91.96
Six Month Price Target :
$94.91
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$98.46
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$91.06
Price Upper limit ($) :
$91.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$86.96
This week:
$81.51
This month :
$71.64
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
11.07B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
121.17M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.71%
-18.2%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$111.83
$102.40
$70.91
$80.34
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$99.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.32
$83.38
$85.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CCK
Sharpe Ratio:
2.27%
Comparison:
CCK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 44.82% higher than the industry
& is -0.56% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CCK
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.26%
Yearly returns:
11.46%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 31.62% above industry average
Classification:
CCK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
CCK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.38%
Weekly Volatility:
5.32%
Monthly Volatility:
10.65%
Yearly Volatility:
36.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.06%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.36% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.83%
Weekly VaR:
-10.80%
Monthly VaR:
-21.59%
How Much Can the price of
CCK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-74.79%
This translates to price declining to:
$74.58
This translates to price declining to:
$23.03
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CCK is a 52.39% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 30.55% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.21% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CCK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.15
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.727
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.028
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.309
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.847
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.892
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.362
Beta is -15.29% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.004
Beta is 15.00% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.08%
Sustainable growth rate is -43.91% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.040
Alpha is 181.12% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 256% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CCK
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is 10.28% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.96%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.46%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.73%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.73%
WACC is 6.48% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$98.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.88
Annual revenue growth rate is -53.21% below industry average
EPS:
-$4.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.53
-
-
Debt per share
$46.66
EBITDA per share
$0.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
CCK
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.19
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
CCK is -203.72% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $17.50
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.46
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.92
Price to sales ratio is -25.91% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.88
Price to free cash flow: 59.68
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-230.76%
Net income growth rate is 746.36% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -4.86%
Dividend yeild: 0.92%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.84
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 24/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 26/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-11--$0.22
2021-11-10--$0.20
2021-05-05--$0.20
2022-03-09--$0.22
2021-08-04--$0.20
2021-03-10--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -74.10% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
309.47%
Net debt to equity ratio:
355.67%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
45.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.40% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.38
Interest coverage ratio is -93.27% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-25.81%
Annual debt growth is 210% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.746
Statistical significance of correlation:
CCK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is 34.18% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
15.464
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.056
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CCK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
80%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.51%
Operating profit margin is 74.71% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
80%
Effective Tax Rate:
11.73%
Effective tax rate is -67.50% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-30.38%
Return on equity (ROE) is -160.32% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-3.85%
Return on assets (ROA) is -173.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.99
Current ratio is -36.99% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-37.6
Cash conversion cycle is -159.20% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.80%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
461.2K
Each employee generates -85% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
3.5K
Each employee generates -99% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 21.3K
Each employee generates -108% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 16.1K
Each employee generates -3% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
360.3K
Each employee generates -3% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CCK
WHIRLPOOL CORPORATION (XNYS:WHR)
FORTUNE BRANDS HOME & SECURITY, INC. (XNYS:FBHS)
PULTEGROUP, INC. (XNYS:PHM)
PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA (XNYS:PKG)
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC (XNYS:IHG)
BATH & BODY WORKS, INC. (XNYS:BBWI)
VAIL RESORTS, INC. (XNYS:MTN)
WESTROCK COMPANY (XNYS:WRK)
FLOOR & DECOR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:FND)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
11.99B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.59B
2.40B
-
-
597.00M
-
450.00M
1.05B
10.00M
238.00M
451.00M
90.00M
1.38B
- 555000.00K
- 375000.00K
- 44000.00K
- 555000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
115.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
10.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 699000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
27.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 301000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
389.00M
-
389.00M
2.17B
2.06B
440.00M
5.06B
4.08B
4.48B
-
-
-
802.00M
9.37B
-
14.43B
-
1.23B
-
-
3.87B
5.11B
5.65B
1.40B
7.06B
-
12.16B
-
-
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
10.64B
1.83B
13.99B
-
6.89B
6.5B
-
- 117000.00K
- 117000.00K
-
-
- 350000.00K
- 27000.00K
698.00M
321.00M
- 36000.00K
- 133000.00K
460.00M
593.00M
- 301000.00K
- 117000.00K
- 418000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CCK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$98.95
$73.29
$78.98
$85.10
$91.70