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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Crown Castle Inc. (XNYS:CCI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CCI
Name:
CROWN CASTLE INC. (XNYS:CCI)
Sector:
277.00M
Industry:
REIT�Specialty
CEO:
Mr. Jay Brown
Total Employees:
5,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 21.76% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CROWN CASTLE INC.(CCI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�SPECIALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
167.76
One Month Price Target:
$168.34
Six Month Price Target :
$171.25
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$174.73
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$167.27
Price Upper limit ($) :
$168.43
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$160.87
This week:
$152.35
This month :
$136.95
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
73.28B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
433.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.34%
-12.43%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$199.72
$184.99
$135.80
$150.53
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$180.20
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$177.06
$155.28
$158.46
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CCI
Sharpe Ratio:
2.16%
Comparison:
CCI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 9.41% higher than the industry
& is -5.29% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CCI
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.05%
Yearly returns:
14.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -14.58% below industry average
Classification:
CCI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
CCI has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.03%
Weekly Volatility:
4.53%
Monthly Volatility:
9.06%
Yearly Volatility:
31.38%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.59%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -21.54% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.11%
Weekly VaR:
-9.18%
Monthly VaR:
-18.37%
How Much Can the price of
CCI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-63.63%
This translates to price declining to:
$141.52
This translates to price declining to:
$61.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CCI is a 29.64% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 11.06% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -27.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CCI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.62
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.707
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.143
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.644
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.696
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.826
Beta is -25.07% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.954
Beta is -35.14% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.052
Alpha is 2.79% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 333% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CCI
Equity cost of capital:
0.074
Equity cost of capital is -23.71% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.71%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.27%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.79%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.79%
WACC is -43.11% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
9.04
Annual revenue growth rate is -30.91% below industry average
EPS:
$3.36
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.05%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -47.81% lower than the REIT�Specialty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.37
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.72%
Equity growth rate per share is 58.89% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$62.66
EBITDA per share
$8.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
CCI
P/E Ratio:
47.04
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
47.16
P/E ratio is -0.24% lower than main peers & is -43.40% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $279.27
CCI is -39.93% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $132.04
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $111.73
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
11.01
Price to sales ratio is 51.24% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
9.04
Price to free cash flow: 49.80
Price to free cash flow ratio is 64.03% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
56.15%
Net income growth rate is -79.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 44.55%
Dividend yeild: 3.42%
Previous Dividend: $1.47
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.47
Previous Dividend: $5.74
Expected next dividend best case: $1.56
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.38
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.32
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.14%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$1.47
2021-12-14--$1.47
2021-06-11--$1.33
2022-03-14--$1.47
2021-09-14--$1.33
2021-03-12--$1.33
Dividend growth rate is -95.85% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
337.64%
Net debt to equity ratio:
339.06%
Debt to assets ratio:
69.48%
Net debt to assets ratio:
69.77%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -9.75% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.01
Interest coverage ratio is 13.88% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.73%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.652
Statistical significance of correlation:
CCI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is 7.87% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.009
Kurtosis
6.377
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.053
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CCI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
276%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
32.92%
Operating profit margin is 82.15% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
276%
Effective Tax Rate:
1.35%
Effective tax rate is -87.32% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.16%
Return on equity (ROE) is -0.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.74%
Return on assets (ROA) is -26.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.3x
Current Ratio:
0.71
Current ratio is -59.67% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-23.2
Cash conversion cycle is -151.67% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.60%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates -83% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
752.2K
Each employee generates -89% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
291.8K
Each employee generates -90% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
55.4K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
7.6M
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CCI
GNL-PB
PUBLIC STORAGE (XNYS:PSA)
SPG-PJ
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP, INC. (XNYS:SPG)
AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION (XNYS:AMT)
DIGITAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:DLR)
REALTY INCOME CORPORATION (XNYS:O)
WELLTOWER INC. (XNYS:WELL)
CBRE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:CBRE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�38%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.60B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.04B
4.56B
-
-
697.00M
-
1.66B
2.35B
1.00M
626.00M
1.66B
3.76B
2.17B
1.46B
1.48B
20.00M
1.46B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
420.00M
Differed Income Tax :
1.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
38.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 367000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
45.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
558.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 3000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
312.00M
-
312.00M
503.00M
-
446.00M
1.26B
21.97B
10.08B
3.94B
-
-
1.81B
37.79B
-
39.05B
224.00M
426.00M
-
721.00M
405.00M
1.78B
27.13B
2.11B
29.24B
-
31.02B
4.00M
- 9971000.00K
- 3000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.39B
8.04B
39.05B
-
27.56B
27.2B
-
- 286000.00K
- 289000.00K
- 1957000.00K
-
- 63000.00K
- 650000.00K
2.42B
- 253000.00K
-
16.00M
482.00M
466.00M
558.00M
- 281000.00K
277.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CCI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$199.45
$207.74
$216.38
$225.37
$234.74