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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:CRWD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CRWD
Name:
CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CRWD)
Sector:
117.30M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. George Kurtz
Total Employees:
6,250
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -20.35% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS, INC.(CRWD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
172.45
One Month Price Target:
$173.18
Six Month Price Target :
$176.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$181.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$171.78
Price Upper limit ($) :
$174.01
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$159.41
This week:
$143.29
This month :
$114.13
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
39.94B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
233.38M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.42%
-16.54%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$232.84
$204.37
$112.06
$140.53
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$195.11
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$189.03
$149.71
$155.87
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CRWD
Sharpe Ratio:
6.58%
Comparison:
CRWD, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 302.33% higher than the industry
& ratio is 188.60% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CRWD
Daily returns:
0.26%
Weekly returns:
1.30%
Monthly returns:
5.19%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 332.75% above industry average
Classification:
CRWD, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.18
Statistical test of Returns:
CRWD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.81%
Weekly Volatility:
8.52%
Monthly Volatility:
17.03%
Yearly Volatility:
58.99%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.24%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -14.79% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.56%
Weekly VaR:
-16.91%
Monthly VaR:
-33.82%
How Much Can the price of
CRWD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$126.03
This translates to price declining to:
$25.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CRWD is a 138.67% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 104.47% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 14.29% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CRWD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.75
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.849
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.201
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.365
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.223
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.714
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.327
Beta is -43.41% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -32.45% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.539
Alpha is 1391.21% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3434% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CRWD
Equity cost of capital:
0.083
Equity cost of capital is -22.95% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.03%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.63%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.29%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.29%
WACC is -15.07% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
47.16
Annual revenue growth rate is 556.78% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-70.76%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -334.88% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.44
-
-
Debt per share
$3.30
EBITDA per share
-$0.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
CRWD
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29.86
-
-
CRWD is -434.62% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
24.59
Price to sales ratio is 123.91% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
47.16
Price to free cash flow: 119.76
Price to free cash flow ratio is 105.01% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-46.25%
Net income growth rate is -100.55% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
90.65%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-106.66%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-31.44%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -61.68% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-6.95
Interest coverage ratio is -96.71% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.446
Statistical significance of correlation:
CRWD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -7.04% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.071
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.157
Kurtosis
2.215
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.144
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CRWD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
294%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-8.25%
Operating profit margin is -30.46% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
294%
Effective Tax Rate:
-16.69%
Effective tax rate is -153.27% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-21.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is -119.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-6.28%
Return on assets (ROA) is 65.92% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.07
Current ratio is -10.92% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
72.7
Cash conversion cycle is -35.45% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 48.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-30.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
261.9K
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 14.1K
Each employee generates -122% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 29.0K
Each employee generates -238% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.8K
Each employee generates -5% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
134.9K
Each employee generates -5% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 64.89%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2602.53% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CRWD
MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED (XNAS:MCHP)
COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORPORATION (XNAS:CTSH)
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (XNAS:ERIC)
SYNOPSYS, INC. (XNAS:SNPS)
OKTA, INC. (XNAS:OKTA)
CADENCE DESIGN SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CDNS)
KLA Corporation (XNAS:KLAC)
COINBASE GLOBAL, INC. (XNAS:COIN)
FORTINET, INC. (XNAS:FTNT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
1.64B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
431.55M
1.21B
416.50M
248.67M
923.62M
674.95M
-
1.34B
-
12.70M
54.38M
- 88231.00K
- 135084.00K
- 181035.00K
- 154183.00K
25.73M
- 181035.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.37M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
54.36M
Change in Working Capital :
138.58M
Accounts Receivables:
31.47M
Other Working Capital:
72.98M
Other Non-Cash Items:
25.27M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
147.53M
Investments in PP&E:
- 25796.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 353407.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 1309.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
1.68B
-
1.68B
211.23M
-
141.77M
2.04B
227.99M
374.58M
88.85M
8.17M
-
143.58M
843.17M
-
2.88B
3.47M
9.33M
-
786.79M
183.17M
982.77M
769.86M
39.95M
1.05B
-
2.03B
113.00K
- 815165.00K
2.1M
1.66B
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.77B
849.26M
2.88B
-
779.19M
- 905806.0K
-
- 4434.00K
- 384946.00K
-
-
-
-
2.61M
2.61M
1.19M
- 233611.00K
1.68B
1.92B
147.53M
- 30230.00K
117.30M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CRWD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$168.10
$176.59
$185.50
$194.86
$204.70