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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Crane Holdings, Co. (XNYS:CR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CR
Name:
CRANE HOLDINGS, CO. (XNYS:CR)
Sector:
- 68000.00K
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Max Mitchell
Total Employees:
11,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -9.51% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CRANE HOLDINGS, CO.(CR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
93.12
One Month Price Target:
$93.94
Six Month Price Target :
$98.02
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$102.92
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$92.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$93.59
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$88.03
This week:
$81.74
This month :
$70.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.21B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
56.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.14%
-15.6%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$116.73
$105.89
$69.51
$80.35
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$102.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$100.05
$83.84
$86.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.50%
Comparison:
CR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -20.89% lower than the industry
& is -34.24% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CR
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
0.98%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -27.50% below industry average
Classification:
CR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
CR has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.68%
Weekly Volatility:
6.00%
Monthly Volatility:
12.00%
Yearly Volatility:
41.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.68%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.72% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.46%
Weekly VaR:
-12.22%
Monthly VaR:
-24.44%
How Much Can the price of
CR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-84.65%
This translates to price declining to:
$73.52
This translates to price declining to:
$14.30
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CR is a 72.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 47.75% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.88% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.866
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.225
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.119
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.883
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.904
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.469
Beta is 6.55% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is 22.16% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
19.24%
Sustainable growth rate is 29.25% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.021
Alpha is -148.43% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -133% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CR
Equity cost of capital:
0.139
Equity cost of capital is 16.31% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.92%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.58%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.62%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.62%
WACC is -70.05% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$57.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.03
Annual revenue growth rate is -114.64% below industry average
EPS:
$7.32
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
44.03%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1343.66% higher than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.80
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 22.95%
Equity growth rate per share is 112.66% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$15.02
EBITDA per share
$12.12
Valuation Analysis Today of
CR
P/E Ratio:
10.64
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.05
P/E ratio is -55.77% lower than main peers & is -61.34% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $201.40
CR is -53.76% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.15
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.41
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.63
Price to sales ratio is -60.68% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.03
Price to free cash flow: 16.07
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
32.40%
Net income growth rate is 2307.38% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.18%
Dividend yeild: 1.93%
Previous Dividend: $0.47
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.47
Previous Dividend: $1.80
Expected next dividend best case: $0.49
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.45
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.96%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 25/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.47
2021-11-29--$0.43
2021-05-27--$0.43
2022-02-25--$0.47
2021-08-30--$0.43
2021-02-25--$0.43
Dividend growth rate is -43.79% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
48.90%
Net debt to equity ratio:
38.39%
Debt to assets ratio:
19.36%
Net debt to assets ratio:
15.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -64.12% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
15.32
Interest coverage ratio is -21.51% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-36.59%
Annual debt growth is -149% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.748
Statistical significance of correlation:
CR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is 17.79% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.051
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.08
Kurtosis
5.999
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.195
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
157%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.49%
Operating profit margin is -163.96% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
157%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.43%
Effective tax rate is -1.39% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.07%
Return on equity (ROE) is 646.07% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.92%
Return on assets (ROA) is 111.45% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.07
Current ratio is -31.44% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
29.5
Cash conversion cycle is -52.15% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.37%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
291.0K
Each employee generates -93% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
61.8K
Each employee generates -92% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
39.3K
Each employee generates -90% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 6.2K
Each employee generates -112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
245.5K
Each employee generates -112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CR
KBR, INC. (XNYS:KBR)
ENOVIS CORPORATION (XNYS:ENOV)
ASGN Incorporated (XNYS:ASGN)
MAXIMUS, INC. (XNYS:MMS)
VALMONT INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:VMI)
FLOWSERVE CORPORATION (XNYS:FLS)
UNUM GROUP (XNYS:UNMA)
WESCO INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:WCC)
RBC
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�4%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.20B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.94B
1.26B
-
-
764.80M
-
-
764.80M
1.20M
44.40M
116.60M
680.10M
495.90M
432.00M
472.70M
87.10M
432.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
28.60M
Differed Income Tax :
- 900.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 167100.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 41900.00K
Other Working Capital:
18.80M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 16700.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 55500.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
307.20M
-
307.20M
524.60M
471.30M
349.20M
1.65B
516.20M
1.40B
452.10M
-
19.40M
310.50M
2.70B
-
4.35B
233.90M
126.00M
23.00M
96.50M
341.40M
797.80M
842.70M
917.30M
1.83B
-
2.63B
72.40M
2.61B
- 458600.0K
- 496400.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.71B
1.72B
4.35B
-
968.70M
661.5M
-
- 13000.00K
- 13000.00K
-
-
- 175800.00K
- 26700.00K
104.70M
- 97800.00K
- 5100.00K
- 171400.00K
307.20M
478.60M
- 55500.00K
- 12500.00K
- 68000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$103.43
$172.12
$190.22
$210.24
$232.35