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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cra International, Inc. (XNAS:CRAI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CRAI
Name:
CRA INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:CRAI)
Sector:
- 63184.00K
Industry:
Consulting Services
CEO:
Mr. Paul Maleh
Total Employees:
861
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1264.61% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CRA INTERNATIONAL, INC.(CRAI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONSULTING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
90.1
One Month Price Target:
$90.77
Six Month Price Target :
$94.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$98.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$89.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$90.69
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$84.46
This week:
$77.48
This month :
$64.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
647.33M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
7.17M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.12%
-26.86%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$116.26
$104.12
$63.94
$76.08
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$100.16
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.57
$80.00
$82.63
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CRAI
Sharpe Ratio:
3.72%
Comparison:
CRAI, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 72.73% higher than the industry
& ratio is 63.38% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CRAI
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.62%
Monthly returns:
2.49%
Yearly returns:
14.72%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 103.25% above industry average
Classification:
CRAI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.13
Statistical test of Returns:
CRAI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.11%
Weekly Volatility:
6.95%
Monthly Volatility:
13.91%
Yearly Volatility:
48.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.27%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -91.19% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.26%
Weekly VaR:
-14.00%
Monthly VaR:
-28.01%
How Much Can the price of
CRAI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$69.07
This translates to price declining to:
$13.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CRAI is a 97.68% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 69.36% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 26.83% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CRAI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.32
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.756
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.07
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.925
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.534
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.8
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.21
Beta is 9.00% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.889
Beta is 48.28% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.41%
Sustainable growth rate is -2.88% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.177
Alpha is 223.69% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1129% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CRAI
Equity cost of capital:
0.122
Equity cost of capital is 31.82% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.55%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.51%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.40%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.40%
WACC is 23.39% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$80.64
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.09
Annual revenue growth rate is 122.26% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.66
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
27.49%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 173.04% higher than the Consulting Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 59.76%
Equity growth rate per share is 418.52% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$16.78
EBITDA per share
$11.67
Valuation Analysis Today of
CRAI
P/E Ratio:
15.89
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.48
P/E ratio is 2.66% higher than main peers & is -17.79% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $109.40
CRAI is -17.64% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.91
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.72
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.12
Price to sales ratio is -67.37% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.09
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -65.47% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
243.13%
Net income growth rate is 133.42% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.64%
Dividend yeild: 1.32%
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.31
Previous Dividend: $1.19
Expected next dividend best case: $0.34
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.23%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.31
2021-11-29--$0.31
2021-05-24--$0.26
2022-03-14--$0.31
2021-08-30--$0.26
2021-03-15--$0.26
Dividend growth rate is -50.37% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
57.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
72.43%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.83%
Net debt to assets ratio:
27.51%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -62.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
84.08
Interest coverage ratio is 339.97% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.01%
Annual debt growth is -117% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.383
Statistical significance of correlation:
CRAI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.51
Stock price is -24.88% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.51
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.015
Kurtosis
17.701
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.413
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CRAI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
118%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.12%
Operating profit margin is -10.90% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
118%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.96%
Effective tax rate is 31.59% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is -2.57% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.65%
Return on assets (ROA) is 3.70% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.16
Current ratio is -29.73% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
54.7
Cash conversion cycle is 164.23% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.46%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
671.2K
Each employee generates 106% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
97.2K
Each employee generates 18% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
49.0K
Each employee generates 3% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 73.4K
Each employee generates 723% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
358.5K
Each employee generates 723% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CRAI
NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:NSSC)
Air T Funding (XNAS:AIRTP)
CROSS COUNTRY HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:CCRN)
DXP ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:DXPE)
AMMO, INC. (XNAS:POWW)
THCAW
EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. (XNAS:EGLE)
MUDRICK CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORPORATION II (XNAS:MUDS)
BARRETT BUSINESS SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:BBSI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
577.90M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
408.13M
169.77M
-
-
98.70M
-
12.60M
111.30M
-
995.00K
25.72M
83.66M
58.47M
42.16M
56.94M
14.78M
42.16M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.35M
Differed Income Tax :
- 197.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.04M
Change in Working Capital :
- 80350.00K
Accounts Receivables:
13.52M
Other Working Capital:
1.76M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 108.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 61838.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1346.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 10639.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
43.70M
-
43.70M
186.55M
-
11.90M
242.15M
159.49M
90.96M
8.09M
-
9.52M
40.64M
308.69M
-
550.84M
20.25M
75.02M
-
8.82M
104.85M
208.95M
120.23M
11.44M
132.67M
-
341.62M
-
220.35M
- 11122.0K
-
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
519.44M
209.23M
550.84M
-
195.25M
151.6M
-
-
- 11985.00K
-
-
- 4956.00K
- 2377.00K
59.44M
52.11M
- 716.00K
- 22428.00K
43.70M
66.13M
- 61838.00K
- 1346.00K
- 63184.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CRAI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$117.88
$128.33
$139.70
$152.08
$165.55