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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cowen Inc. (XNAS:COWN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
COWN
Name:
COWEN INC. (XNAS:COWN)
Sector:
- 2914.00K
Industry:
Capital Markets
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Solomon
Total Employees:
1,534
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -68.49% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COWEN INC.(COWN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CAPITAL MARKETS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
38.4
One Month Price Target:
$38.74
Six Month Price Target :
$40.43
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$42.46
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$38.7
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$35.73
This week:
$32.43
This month :
$26.47
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.06B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
27.65M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.66%
-22.28%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.76
$44.97
$26.04
$31.83
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$43.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.85
$33.69
$34.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
COWN
Sharpe Ratio:
5.32%
Comparison:
COWN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 52.33% higher than the industry
& ratio is 133.53% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
COWN
Daily returns:
0.19%
Weekly returns:
0.97%
Monthly returns:
3.88%
Yearly returns:
25.05%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 85.78% above industry average
Classification:
COWN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.27
Statistical test of Returns:
COWN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.48%
Weekly Volatility:
7.77%
Monthly Volatility:
15.55%
Yearly Volatility:
53.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.18%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -94.80% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.95%
Weekly VaR:
-15.53%
Monthly VaR:
-31.07%
How Much Can the price of
COWN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.71
This translates to price declining to:
$5.76
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
COWN is a 119.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 87.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 26.56% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
COWN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.018
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.44
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.198
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.961
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.806
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.141
Beta is 37.93% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.144
Beta is 37.47% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
29.30%
Sustainable growth rate is 27.67% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.326
Alpha is 131.92% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2076% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
COWN
Equity cost of capital:
0.139
Equity cost of capital is 26.73% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.75%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.41%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.07%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.07%
WACC is 34.58% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$64.22
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.8
Annual revenue growth rate is 80.20% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.50
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
145.24%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 176.72% higher than the Capital Markets industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$10.93
Valuation Analysis Today of
COWN
P/E Ratio:
8.38
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
143.13
P/E ratio is -94.14% lower than main peers & is -58.07% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $109.97
COWN is -65.08% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.6
Price to sales ratio is -86.05% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.8
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -94.82% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
635.80%
Net income growth rate is -626.07% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.16%
Dividend yeild: 1.15%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.15
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.09
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 16.11%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.12
2021-11-30--$0.10
2021-05-28--$0.10
2022-02-28--$0.12
2021-08-31--$0.10
2021-02-26--$0.08
Dividend growth rate is -45.73% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
895.51%
Net debt to equity ratio:
15.97%
Debt to assets ratio:
88.63%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 19.50% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.49
Interest coverage ratio is -87.28% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.553
Statistical significance of correlation:
COWN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.637
Stock price is -13.15% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.637
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.039
Kurtosis
13.059
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.633
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
COWN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.22%
Operating profit margin is -36.90% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.32%
Effective tax rate is 12.34% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.63%
Return on equity (ROE) is -44.08% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.15%
Return on assets (ROA) is -60.76% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
8.8x
Current Ratio:
2.32
Current ratio is -44.95% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
278
Cash conversion cycle is 1510.01% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates -37% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
196.9K
Each employee generates -30% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
118.3K
Each employee generates -31% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.9K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
271.6K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
COWN
VIHAU
CIPHER MINING INC. (XNAS:CIFR)
NERDWALLET, INC. (XNAS:NRDS)
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLC)
HORIZON BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBNC)
PEOPLES BANCORP INC. (XNAS:PEBO)
ATLANTICUS HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:ATLC)
WISDOMTREE INVESTMENTS, INC. (XNAS:WETF)
HERITAGE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:HFWA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.78B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
938.52M
426.76M
-
208.78M
208.78M
-
14.65M
223.43M
20.13M
46.52M
14.65M
302.10M
217.05M
181.43M
266.57M
59.50M
181.43M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 33318.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
- 2914.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 27283.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
512.98M
237.63M
750.61M
1.49B
-
-
2.24B
25.04M
234.01M
40.73M
97.18M
19.61M
-
416.56M
6.60B
8.43B
241.11M
725.57M
-
-
-
966.68M
-
6.13B
6.13B
-
7.09B
-
499.22M
-
832.26M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.45B
1.33B
8.43B
334.81M
725.57M
212.6M
9.78M
-
- 20417.00K
- 2193.00K
1.88M
- 24140.00K
- 3917.00K
- 12158.00K
- 40527.00K
-
- 370086.00K
786.75M
1.16B
-
- 2914.00K
- 2914.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
COWN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$42.67
$594.27
$657.09
$726.55
$803.35