Cowen Inc. (XNAS:COWN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

COWN

Name:

COWEN INC. (XNAS:COWN)

Sector:

- 2914.00K

Industry:

Capital Markets

CEO:

Mr. Jeffrey Solomon

Total Employees:

1,534

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

D

Technological advancement compared to industry is -68.49% lower

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COWEN INC.(COWN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CAPITAL MARKETS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

38.4

One Month Price Target:

$38.74

Six Month Price Target :

$40.43

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$42.46

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$38.25

Price Upper limit ($) :

$38.7

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$35.73

                                                               This week:

$32.43

                                                        This month :

$26.47

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

1.06B

Market Cap Classification:

Small Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

27.65M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

28.66%

-22.28%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$50.76

$44.97

$26.04

$31.83

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$43.09

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$41.85

$33.69

$34.95

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

COWN

Sharpe Ratio:

5.32%

Comparison:

COWN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is 52.33% higher than the industry

& ratio is 133.53% higher than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

COWN

Daily returns:

0.19%

Weekly returns:

0.97%

Monthly returns:

3.88%

Yearly returns:

25.05%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 85.78% above industry average

Classification:

COWN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.27

Statistical test of Returns:

COWN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

3.48%

Weekly Volatility:

7.77%

Monthly Volatility:

15.55%

Yearly Volatility:

53.87%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

0.18%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -94.80% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-6.95%

Weekly VaR:

-15.53%

Monthly VaR:

-31.07%

How Much Can the price of

COWN

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-25%

Worst case (decline):

>85%

This translates to price declining to:

$28.71

This translates to price declining to:

$5.76

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

COWN is a 119.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 87.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is 26.56% above industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

COWN

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.57

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

1.018

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

1.44

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.198

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.961

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.806

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.141

Beta is 37.93% higher than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

1.144

Beta is 37.47% above industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

29.30%

Sustainable growth rate is 27.67% above industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

0.326

Alpha is 131.92% above industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 2076% higher than market/& is unsustainably high

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

COWN

Equity cost of capital:

0.139

Equity cost of capital is 26.73% above industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

1.75%

Before-tax cost of debt:

6.41%

After-tax cost of debt:

5.07%

Overall debt rating:

Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

5.07%

WACC is 34.58% above industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$64.22

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

0.8

Annual revenue growth rate is 80.20% above the industry average

EPS:

$5.50

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

145.24%

Expected future EPS growth rate is 176.72% higher than the Capital Markets industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

-

-

-

Debt per share

$0.00

EBITDA per share

$10.93

Valuation Analysis Today of

COWN

P/E Ratio:

8.38

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

143.13

P/E ratio is -94.14% lower than main peers & is -58.07% lower than the industry

Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $109.97

COWN is -65.08% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

-

-

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

0.6

Price to sales ratio is -86.05% below the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

0.8

-

Price to free cash flow ratio is -94.82% lower than the industry

Net income growth rate (3Y):

635.80%

Net income growth rate is -626.07% lower than the industry average net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

Dividend payout rate: 2.16%

Dividend yeild: 1.15%

Previous Dividend: $0.12

Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12

Previous Dividend: $0.44

Expected next dividend best case: $0.15

Expected next dividend worst case: $0.09

Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08

Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 16.11%

Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022

Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022

-

Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022

Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022

-

Dividend History:

2022-05-31--$0.12

2021-11-30--$0.10

2021-05-28--$0.10

2022-02-28--$0.12

2021-08-31--$0.10

2021-02-26--$0.08

Dividend growth rate is -45.73% lower than the industry average

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

895.51%

Net debt to equity ratio:

15.97%

Debt to assets ratio:

88.63%

Net debt to assets ratio:

2.52%

Debt-to-asset ratio is 19.50% above industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

6.49

Interest coverage ratio is -87.28% less than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

0.00%

-

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.553

Statistical significance of correlation:

COWN has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.637

Stock price is -13.15% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.637

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

-0.02

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

-0.039

Kurtosis 

13.059

Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

0.633

Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

COWN

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

93%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

12.22%

Operating profit margin is -36.90% lower than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

93%

Effective Tax Rate:

22.32%

Effective tax rate is 12.34% higher than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

13.63%

Return on equity (ROE) is -44.08% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

2.15%

Return on assets (ROA) is -60.76% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

8.8x

Current Ratio:

2.32

Current ratio is -44.95% below industry average

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

278

Cash conversion cycle is 1510.01% above industry average

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

-

In-depth