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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Coupa Software Incorporated (XNAS:COUP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
COUP
Name:
COUPA SOFTWARE INCORPORATED (XNAS:COUP)
Sector:
29.33M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Robert Bernshteyn
Total Employees:
3,076
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -95.32% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COUPA SOFTWARE INCORPORATED(COUP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
56.98
One Month Price Target:
$57.46
Six Month Price Target :
$59.84
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$62.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$56.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$57.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$52.33
This week:
$46.57
This month :
$36.17
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.22B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
75.55M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.16%
-19.23%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.60
$68.85
$35.36
$45.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$65.67
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$63.59
$48.26
$50.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
COUP
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.68%
Comparison:
COUP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -274.18% lower than the industry
& is -173.66% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
COUP
Daily returns:
-0.06%
Weekly returns:
-0.29%
Monthly returns:
-1.15%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -238.75% below industry average
Classification:
COUP, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.44
Statistical test of Returns:
COUP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.95%
Weekly Volatility:
8.83%
Monthly Volatility:
17.66%
Yearly Volatility:
61.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -50.32% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.17%
Weekly VaR:
-18.26%
Monthly VaR:
-36.53%
How Much Can the price of
COUP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$38.19
This translates to price declining to:
$8.55
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
COUP is a 157.80% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 120.86% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.86% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
COUP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.276
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.804
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.767
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.369
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.782
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.563
Beta is -4.29% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 12.00% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.272
Alpha is 1051.37% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1730% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
COUP
Equity cost of capital:
0.134
Equity cost of capital is 8.92% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.87%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.67%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.67%
WACC is -18.28% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.99
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.3
Annual revenue growth rate is 2.78% above the industry average
EPS:
-$4.84
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
74.83%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 173.56% higher than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.22
-
-
Debt per share
$12.50
EBITDA per share
-$2.82
Valuation Analysis Today of
COUP
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
59.98
-
-
COUP is -106.63% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.7
Price to sales ratio is -50.27% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.3
Price to free cash flow: 263.49
Price to free cash flow ratio is -22.08% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
217.86%
Net income growth rate is -10.78% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
94.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
120.99%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.75%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.39%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -43.96% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-6.4
Interest coverage ratio is -112.05% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
104.46%
Annual debt growth is -89% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.26%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.499
Statistical significance of correlation:
COUP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -0.79% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.076
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.174
Kurtosis
3.35
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.326
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
COUP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
233%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-32.00%
Operating profit margin is 66.98% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
233%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.64%
Effective tax rate is -102.41% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-35.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is 173.78% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-11.66%
Return on assets (ROA) is 203.53% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
0.77
Current ratio is -74.32% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
88
Cash conversion cycle is -7.15% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-13.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
245.4K
Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 69.4K
Each employee generates -745% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 116.4K
Each employee generates 567% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.5K
Each employee generates -223% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
735.1K
Each employee generates -223% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 43.78%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 2763.43% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
COUP
Gitlab Inc. (XNAS:GTLB)
MONDAY.COM LTD (XNAS:MNDY)
PFPT
ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AZPN)
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:LSCC)
Amdocs Limited (XNAS:DOX)
MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC. (XNAS:MKSI)
PAYLOCITY HOLDING CORPORATION (XNAS:PCTY)
dLocal Ltd (XNAS:DLO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�21%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
754.73M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
314.34M
440.39M
166.36M
164.63M
515.52M
350.90M
-
681.88M
-
33.34M
109.18M
- 213366.00K
- 241487.00K
- 358105.00K
- 347735.00K
2.22M
- 358105.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
36.54M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
47.29M
Change in Working Capital :
18.65M
Accounts Receivables:
47.75M
Other Working Capital:
- 23850.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
29.96M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
32.08M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2754.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 45095.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 51287.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
362.51M
237.84M
600.35M
150.35M
-
59.88M
810.57M
67.51M
1.51B
610.66M
-
-
68.59M
2.26B
-
3.07B
7.55M
627.97M
-
338.53M
79.71M
1.05B
944.52M
68.48M
1.02B
-
2.07B
7.00K
- 626163.00K
9.0M
1.62B
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
996.22M
1.00B
3.07B
-
1.57B
1.2B
93.66M
-
- 5480.00K
- 2439.00K
-
-
-
14.96M
12.52M
- 13.00K
39.11M
366.70M
327.59M
32.08M
- 2754.00K
29.33M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
COUP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$62.91
$69.23
$76.19
$83.85
$92.27