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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Couchbase, Inc. (XNAS:BASE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BASE
Name:
COUCHBASE, INC. (XNAS:BASE)
Sector:
- 3419.00K
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Total Employees:
659
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -9.40% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COUCHBASE, INC.(BASE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.59
One Month Price Target:
$14.73
Six Month Price Target :
$15.41
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.23
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.9
This week:
$10.82
This month :
$7.05
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
647.77M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
44.55M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.97%
-19.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.43
$18.90
$6.75
$10.28
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$17.75
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.00
$11.42
$12.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BASE
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.01%
Comparison:
BASE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -222.76% lower than the industry
& is -188.06% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BASE
Daily returns:
-0.10%
Weekly returns:
-0.52%
Monthly returns:
-2.06%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -272.12% below industry average
Classification:
BASE, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.37
Statistical test of Returns:
BASE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.58%
Weekly Volatility:
12.48%
Monthly Volatility:
24.95%
Yearly Volatility:
86.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.56%
Weekly VaR:
-25.86%
Monthly VaR:
-51.71%
How Much Can the price of
BASE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-47%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.74
This translates to price declining to:
$2.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BASE is a 264.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 212.67% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 67.47% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BASE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.67
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.131
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
-0.023
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.038
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 50.57% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.394
Alpha is -1188.31% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2506% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BASE
Equity cost of capital:
0.146
Equity cost of capital is 35.78% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.15%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.75%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.38%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.38%
WACC is 49.15% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
301.62
Annual revenue growth rate is -65.49% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.56
EBITDA per share
-$1.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
BASE
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
-
-
BASE is -115.11% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.98
Price to sales ratio is -54.63% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
301.62
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
36.66%
Net income growth rate is -99.57% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1157.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-575.03%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-12.68%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -63.40% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-135.83
Interest coverage ratio is -35.63% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-49.38%
Annual debt growth is -146% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.026
Statistical significance of correlation:
BASE does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -94.49% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.008
Kurtosis
0.624
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
-0.133
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BASE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
351%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-46.87%
Operating profit margin is 294.90% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
351%
Effective Tax Rate:
-1.52%
Effective tax rate is -104.86% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2944.97%
Return on equity (ROE) is -2858.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-64.91%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1614.16% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.31
Current ratio is -43.85% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-21.1
Cash conversion cycle is -118.73% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-2.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
197.9K
Each employee generates -50% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 89.9K
Each employee generates -237% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 96.3K
Each employee generates -560% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 5.2K
Each employee generates -126% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
22.1K
Each employee generates -126% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 23.14%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -992.27% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BASE
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
130.44M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
16.04M
114.40M
53.52M
26.44M
122.02M
95.58M
-
175.54M
-
436.00K
2.86M
- 59222.00K
- 61137.00K
- 63464.00K
- 62513.00K
951.00K
- 63464.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
708.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.83M
Change in Working Capital :
5.96M
Accounts Receivables:
18.56M
Other Working Capital:
- 11056.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.92M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 3189.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 230.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1726.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
37.34M
16.04M
53.39M
17.44M
-
12.40M
83.23M
5.80M
-
5.77M
-
-
2.96M
14.54M
-
97.77M
3.43M
-
623.00K
50.99M
9.25M
63.67M
24.95M
1.33M
31.94M
-
95.61M
-
- 298352.00K
- 1.0K
-
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
191.58M
2.16M
97.77M
-
24.95M
- 12392.0K
5.19M
-
3.23M
-
-
-
-
8.00K
8.00K
- 6.00K
47.00K
37.89M
37.84M
- 3189.00K
- 230.00K
- 3419.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BASE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.23
$18.06
$20.09
$22.35
$24.86