_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Coty Inc. (XNYS:COTY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
COTY
Name:
COTY INC. (XNYS:COTY)
Sector:
240.70M
Industry:
Household & Personal Products
CEO:
Mr. Pierre Denis
Total Employees:
11,012
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -140.72% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COTY INC.(COTY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HOUSEHOLD & PERSONAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.53
One Month Price Target:
$7.61
Six Month Price Target :
$8.02
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.51
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.47
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.6
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.78
This week:
$5.86
This month :
$4.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.12B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
839.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.16%
-31.38%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.01
$9.42
$4.05
$5.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.90
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.56
$6.16
$6.50
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
COTY
Sharpe Ratio:
0.97%
Comparison:
COTY, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -19.39% lower than the industry
& is -57.50% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
COTY
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.28%
Monthly returns:
1.12%
Yearly returns:
9.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 45.34% above industry average
Classification:
COTY, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.52
Statistical test of Returns:
COTY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.87%
Weekly Volatility:
10.89%
Monthly Volatility:
21.78%
Yearly Volatility:
75.45%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.95%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.91% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.95%
Weekly VaR:
-22.24%
Monthly VaR:
-44.48%
How Much Can the price of
COTY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.62
This translates to price declining to:
$1.13
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
COTY is a 213.93% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 168.94% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 97.10% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
COTY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.94
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.079
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.526
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.078
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.157
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.993
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.987
Beta is 96.37% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.835
Beta is 132.04% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.35%
Sustainable growth rate is -71.21% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.030
Alpha is -883.27% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -190% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
COTY
Equity cost of capital:
0.164
Equity cost of capital is 85.15% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.14%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.36%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.44%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.44%
WACC is 81.40% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.62
Annual revenue growth rate is -366.58% below industry average
EPS:
$0.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.07
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -93.30%
Equity growth rate per share is -1017.69% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.56
EBITDA per share
$1.88
Valuation Analysis Today of
COTY
P/E Ratio:
104.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.91
P/E ratio is 400.70% higher than main peers & is 295.83% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $3.70
COTY is 103.40% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $9.38
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.52
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.22
Price to sales ratio is -66.63% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.62
Price to free cash flow: 7.05
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
16.90%
Net income growth rate is -99.35% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.21%
Dividend yeild: 3.32%
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.25
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.13
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 27/03/2020
Previous dividend record date: 18/02/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 02/05/2020
Dividend History:
2020-02-14--$0.13
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-15--$0.13
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
148.98%
Net debt to equity ratio:
141.30%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -42.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.44
Interest coverage ratio is -54.28% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-29.51%
Annual debt growth is -165% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.32%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.473
Statistical significance of correlation:
COTY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is -14.83% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.041
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.117
Kurtosis
6.911
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.315
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
COTY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
252%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.16%
Operating profit margin is -176.10% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
252%
Effective Tax Rate:
46.49%
Effective tax rate is 118.70% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.65%
Return on equity (ROE) is -78.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.54%
Return on assets (ROA) is -37.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.67
Current ratio is -75.12% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-206
Cash conversion cycle is -295.27% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
30.34%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
472.1K
Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
142.9K
Each employee generates 0% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
32.4K
Each employee generates -62% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
21.9K
Each employee generates 795% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates 795% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
COTY
US FOODS HOLDING CORP. (XNYS:USFD)
BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:BJ)
Post Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:POST)
INGREDION INCORPORATED (XNYS:INGR)
THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:SAM)
LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:LW)
FLOWERS FOODS, INC. (XNYS:FLO)
DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. (XNYS:DAR)
RLX Technology Inc. (XNYS:RLX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�42%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.20B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.91B
3.29B
-
-
2.75B
-
169.00M
2.92B
2.80M
244.20M
675.90M
1.57B
320.10M
356.60M
638.80M
297.00M
356.60M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
137.80M
Differed Income Tax :
89.90M
Stock Based Compensation :
108.20M
Change in Working Capital :
79.50M
Accounts Receivables:
- 183500.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 355700.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
285.70M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
376.90M
-
376.90M
517.80M
660.70M
504.80M
2.06B
1.15B
4.04B
4.34B
1.67B
738.80M
50.70M
11.98B
-
14.04B
1.23B
93.00M
53.70M
-
1.75B
3.07B
5.51B
792.50M
7.07B
-
10.14B
8.80M
- 5529600.00K
- 459900.0K
9.22B
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
4.83B
3.70B
13.84B
-
5.60B
5.2B
-
- 45000.00K
- 45000.00K
- 371500.00K
-
-
- 4300.00K
253.10M
- 122700.00K
- 6000.00K
112.00M
422.40M
310.40M
285.70M
- 45000.00K
240.70M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
COTY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.71
$10.98
$12.41
$14.02
$15.85