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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Costar Group, Inc. (XNAS:CSGP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CSGP
Name:
COSTAR GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CSGP)
Sector:
118.29M
Industry:
Real Estate Services
CEO:
Mr. Andrew Florance
Total Employees:
4,742
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 83.38% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COSTAR GROUP, INC.(CSGP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REAL ESTATE SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
70.89
One Month Price Target:
$71.26
Six Month Price Target :
$73.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$75.32
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$70.63
Price Upper limit ($) :
$71.24
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$67.25
This week:
$62.75
This month :
$54.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
30.17B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
395.95M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.68%
-15.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.77
$80.00
$54.01
$61.78
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$77.47
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$75.81
$64.29
$65.97
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CSGP
Sharpe Ratio:
2.06%
Comparison:
CSGP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 26.27% higher than the industry
& is -9.79% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CSGP
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.30%
Monthly returns:
1.22%
Yearly returns:
16.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -11.14% below industry average
Classification:
CSGP, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
CSGP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.53%
Weekly Volatility:
5.66%
Monthly Volatility:
11.31%
Yearly Volatility:
39.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.70%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.31% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.13%
Weekly VaR:
-11.48%
Monthly VaR:
-22.96%
How Much Can the price of
CSGP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-79.53%
This translates to price declining to:
$56.99
This translates to price declining to:
$14.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CSGP is a 62.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 38.81% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -27.89% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CSGP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.93
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.916
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.296
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.82
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.946
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.688
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.923
Beta is 0.69% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.462
Beta is -36.43% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.29%
Sustainable growth rate is -82.31% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.051
Alpha is 55.61% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 324% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CSGP
Equity cost of capital:
0.095
Equity cost of capital is -27.72% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.40%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.81%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.22%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.22%
WACC is -1.70% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.06
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.84
Annual revenue growth rate is -54.19% below industry average
EPS:
$0.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-5.14%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -126.31% lower than the Real Estate Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.12
-
-
Debt per share
$2.74
EBITDA per share
$1.52
Valuation Analysis Today of
CSGP
P/E Ratio:
84.72
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
117.23
P/E ratio is -27.73% lower than main peers & is 181.43% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $23.48
CSGP is 201.90% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
14.02
Price to sales ratio is 168.08% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.84
Price to free cash flow: 63.45
Price to free cash flow ratio is 36.95% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
12.79%
Net income growth rate is -67.18% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
18.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-48.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
14.76%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-38.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
19.07
Interest coverage ratio is -32.02% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.92%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.653
Statistical significance of correlation:
CSGP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.544
Stock price is 20.02% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.544
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.03
Kurtosis
8.104
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.453
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CSGP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
327%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
22.94%
Operating profit margin is 127.06% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
327%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.80%
Effective tax rate is 51.63% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
5.31%
Return on equity (ROE) is -54.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.18%
Return on assets (ROA) is -13.35% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
11.08
Current ratio is 49.49% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
3.2
Cash conversion cycle is -56.04% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.80%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
422.2K
Each employee generates -52% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
126.5K
Each employee generates -53% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
64.9K
Each employee generates -16% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
24.9K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
686.9K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 23.39%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -62.03% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CSGP
SBA Communications Corporation (XNAS:SBAC)
BPY
BROOKFIE PPTY PRT CL A SRS 1 PRF UNT (XNAS:BPYPP)
LAMAR ADVERTISING COMPANY (XNAS:LAMR)
CYRUSONE INC. (XNAS:CONE)
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (XNAS:GLPI)
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNCM)
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNCN)
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�25%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.00B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
363.97M
1.64B
208.26M
270.82M
898.14M
627.32M
72.49M
1.18B
-
31.46M
136.34M
599.91M
459.40M
307.67M
432.11M
124.44M
307.67M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
32.19M
Differed Income Tax :
- 10211.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
17.85M
Change in Working Capital :
- 27436.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 13724.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 13412.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
29.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
130.71M
Investments in PP&E:
- 12416.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.93B
-
3.93B
134.98M
-
36.18M
4.10B
379.27M
2.32B
409.33M
-
5.04M
143.77M
3.26B
-
7.36B
19.19M
32.62M
72.38M
107.75M
210.64M
370.20M
1.09B
12.51M
1.19B
-
1.56B
3.96M
1.55B
- 12114.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.54B
5.80B
7.36B
-
1.12B
- 2810792.0K
-
15.00K
- 12401.00K
-
-
- 19459.00K
-
3.71M
- 15754.00K
- 581.00K
101.97M
3.93B
3.83B
130.71M
- 12416.00K
118.29M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CSGP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$84.43
$89.70
$95.31
$101.26
$107.59