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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Corvel Corporation (XNAS:CRVL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CRVL
Name:
CORVEL CORPORATION (XNAS:CRVL)
Sector:
8.00M
Industry:
Insurance Brokers
CEO:
Mr. Michael Combs
Total Employees:
4,233
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -225.96% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CORVEL CORPORATION(CRVL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE BROKERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
151.35
One Month Price Target:
$152.17
Six Month Price Target :
$156.28
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$161.21
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$150.85
Price Upper limit ($) :
$152.23
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$143.19
This week:
$133.11
This month :
$114.87
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.65B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
17.40M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.75%
-14.96%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$189.16
$171.54
$113.54
$131.16
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$165.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$162.05
$136.84
$140.65
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CRVL
Sharpe Ratio:
4.32%
Comparison:
CRVL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 86.04% higher than the industry
& ratio is 89.53% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CRVL
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.62%
Monthly returns:
2.50%
Yearly returns:
6.97%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 329.56% above industry average
Classification:
CRVL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
CRVL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.68%
Weekly Volatility:
6.00%
Monthly Volatility:
12.01%
Yearly Volatility:
41.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.23%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -54.24% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.39%
Weekly VaR:
-12.05%
Monthly VaR:
-24.10%
How Much Can the price of
CRVL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-83.49%
This translates to price declining to:
$121.27
This translates to price declining to:
$24.99
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CRVL is a 70.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 45.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.07% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CRVL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.97
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.771
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.09
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.851
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.794
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.933
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.263
Beta is -23.26% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.675
Beta is 43.66% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
27.72%
Sustainable growth rate is 124.71% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.202
Alpha is -2623.76% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1284% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CRVL
Equity cost of capital:
0.098
Equity cost of capital is 25.96% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.59%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$37.13
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
11.48
Annual revenue growth rate is -97.52% below industry average
EPS:
$3.66
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.87%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -35.66% lower than the Insurance Brokers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.06
-
-
Debt per share
$2.34
EBITDA per share
$6.23
Valuation Analysis Today of
CRVL
P/E Ratio:
41.12
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11
P/E ratio is 273.88% higher than main peers & is -24.45% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $199.23
CRVL is -24.03% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.08
Price to sales ratio is 28.31% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
11.48
Price to free cash flow: 73.57
Price to free cash flow ratio is -3.94% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
36.35%
Net income growth rate is -101.28% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
17.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-37.07%
Debt to assets ratio:
9.63%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-20.14%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -80.37% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-44.40%
Annual debt growth is -104% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.609
Statistical significance of correlation:
CRVL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.616
Stock price is -1.11% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.616
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.047
Kurtosis
8.064
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.223
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CRVL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
94%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.08%
Operating profit margin is 69.26% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
94%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.42%
Effective tax rate is 41.29% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.93%
Return on equity (ROE) is 121.92% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is 184.25% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.75
Current ratio is -23.97% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
31.4
Cash conversion cycle is -93.36% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
152.7K
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
25.6K
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
15.7K
Each employee generates -23% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.9K
Each employee generates -61% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
36.8K
Each employee generates -61% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CRVL
SEACOAST BANKING CORPORATION OF FLORIDA (XNAS:SBCF)
TRUSTMARK CORPORATION (XNAS:TRMK)
HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)
VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:VRTS)
PATRIA INVESTMENTS LTD. (XNAS:PAX)
B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:RILY)
NMI HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:NMIH)
SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SASR)
VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VCTR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
646.23M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
494.12M
152.11M
-
67.60M
67.60M
-
-
67.60M
-
-
23.92M
108.43M
84.51M
66.41M
84.51M
18.10M
66.41M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.90M
Differed Income Tax :
- 336.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.35M
Change in Working Capital :
- 9451.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2705.00K
Other Working Capital:
4.03M
Other Non-Cash Items:
159.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
14.46M
Investments in PP&E:
- 6463.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
138.66M
-
138.66M
67.26M
-
60.96M
266.88M
115.13M
36.81M
2.00M
-
949.00K
720.00K
155.61M
-
422.48M
11.33M
12.88M
4.94M
74.57M
53.48M
152.26M
40.69M
-
40.69M
-
192.94M
3.00K
615.74M
-
- 386200.00K
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
561.72M
229.54M
422.48M
-
53.57M
- 85097.0K
-
-
- 6463.00K
-
-
- 14196.00K
-
5.15M
- 9051.00K
-
- 1054.00K
138.66M
139.72M
14.46M
- 6463.00K
8.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CRVL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$153.63
$163.64
$174.31
$185.66
$197.76