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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated (XNAS:CORT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CORT
Name:
CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:CORT)
Sector:
35.24M
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Joseph Belanoff
Total Employees:
238
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -98.91% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED(CORT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.63
One Month Price Target:
$25.71
Six Month Price Target :
$26.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$26.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.7
This week:
$21.32
This month :
$17.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.74B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
107.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
58.45%
-16.91%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.57
$30.42
$16.69
$20.84
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$29.07
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.18
$22.18
$23.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CORT
Sharpe Ratio:
3.91%
Comparison:
CORT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 101.15% higher than the industry
& ratio is 71.60% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CORT
Daily returns:
0.16%
Weekly returns:
0.78%
Monthly returns:
3.10%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 47.61% above industry average
Classification:
CORT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
CORT has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.74%
Weekly Volatility:
8.36%
Monthly Volatility:
16.73%
Yearly Volatility:
57.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.98% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.53%
Weekly VaR:
-16.83%
Monthly VaR:
-33.66%
How Much Can the price of
CORT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.46
This translates to price declining to:
$3.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CORT is a 137.55% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 103.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.33% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CORT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.688
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.972
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.55
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.712
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.425
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.794
Beta is -30.66% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -52.21% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
20.31%
Sustainable growth rate is -61.28% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.303
Alpha is 113.70% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1930% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CORT
Equity cost of capital:
0.069
Equity cost of capital is -37.31% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.84%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.24%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.24%
WACC is -24.01% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.55
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.73
Annual revenue growth rate is -92.13% below industry average
EPS:
$0.91
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.77%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -72.26% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.56
-
-
Debt per share
$0.01
EBITDA per share
$1.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
CORT
P/E Ratio:
27.23
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
912.76
P/E ratio is -97.02% lower than main peers & is -69.65% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $81.65
CORT is -68.61% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.22
Price to sales ratio is -82.18% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.73
Price to free cash flow: 16.39
Price to free cash flow ratio is -58.55% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
48.62%
Net income growth rate is -31.11% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.14%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-14.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.12%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-12.61%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.72% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1689.35
Interest coverage ratio is -1527.51% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-79.38%
Annual debt growth is -159% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.32
Statistical significance of correlation:
CORT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -5.96% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.034
Kurtosis
89.261
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
5.945
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CORT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
394%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
34.61%
Operating profit margin is -108.07% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
394%
Effective Tax Rate:
15.23%
Effective tax rate is 167.04% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
27.43%
Return on equity (ROE) is -147.83% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
23.89%
Return on assets (ROA) is -217.10% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
6.78
Current ratio is -16.22% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-364.9
Cash conversion cycle is -168.46% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 23.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.62%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates -1% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
567.8K
Each employee generates 47% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
469.9K
Each employee generates 267% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
148.0K
Each employee generates 1% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
335.7K
Each employee generates 1% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -0.78%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -78.14% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CORT
ALLSCRIPTS HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:MDRX)
BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. (XNAS:BBIO)
HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HRMY)
LUMIRADX LIMITED (XNAS:LMDX)
TURNING POINT THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:TPTX)
SCHRODINGER, INC. (XNAS:SDGR)
Valneva SE (XNAS:VALN)
CYTEK BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:CTKB)
BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:BCRX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
380.23M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.26M
374.97M
112.96M
-
130.40M
-
-
243.36M
334.00K
80.00K
3.13M
135.15M
131.61M
111.84M
131.94M
20.10M
111.84M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
802.00K
Differed Income Tax :
- 9935.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
10.76M
Change in Working Capital :
9.72M
Accounts Receivables:
447.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.11M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
35.25M
Investments in PP&E:
- 12.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 92611.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
61.86M
283.67M
345.53M
27.18M
5.08M
10.44M
388.22M
3.54M
-
-
22.57M
37.71M
16.08M
79.90M
-
468.12M
9.27M
2.26M
11.52M
-
45.71M
57.24M
552.00K
2.52M
3.07M
-
60.31M
128.00K
217.77M
- 1351.0K
191.27M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
248.62M
407.81M
468.12M
306.23M
2.82M
- 59046.0K
42.13M
-
- 50496.00K
-
-
-
-
- 506.00K
- 506.00K
-
- 15755.00K
61.86M
77.62M
35.25M
- 12.00K
35.24M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CORT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.71
$245.12
$254.19
$263.59
$273.34