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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Copart, Inc. (XNAS:CPRT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CPRT
Name:
COPART, INC. (XNAS:CPRT)
Sector:
247.84M
Industry:
Specialty Business Services
CEO:
Mr. A. Jayson Adair
Total Employees:
8,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 20.49% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COPART, INC.(CPRT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY BUSINESS SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
116.4
One Month Price Target:
$117.16
Six Month Price Target :
$120.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$125.51
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$116.04
Price Upper limit ($) :
$116.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$111.17
This week:
$104.71
This month :
$93.03
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
27.68B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
237.67M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.35%
-14.06%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$140.64
$129.45
$92.16
$103.35
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$125.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$123.42
$106.96
$109.38
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CPRT
Sharpe Ratio:
2.52%
Comparison:
CPRT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 328.54% higher than the industry
& ratio is 10.74% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CPRT
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.30%
Yearly returns:
5.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 200.23% above industry average
Classification:
CPRT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
CPRT has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.22%
Weekly Volatility:
4.96%
Monthly Volatility:
9.92%
Yearly Volatility:
34.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.50%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.40% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.49%
Weekly VaR:
-10.04%
Monthly VaR:
-20.08%
How Much Can the price of
CPRT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-69.56%
This translates to price declining to:
$96.60
This translates to price declining to:
$35.43
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CPRT is a 41.73% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 21.42% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.68% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CPRT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.16
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.795
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.125
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.05
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.908
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.745
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.091
Beta is 6.75% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.172
Beta is -0.67% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
29.50%
Sustainable growth rate is -16.29% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.044
Alpha is -173.93% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 282% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CPRT
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is -0.48% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.03%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.57%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.82%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.82%
WACC is 30.26% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.16
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.29
Annual revenue growth rate is 996.42% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.49
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
20.80%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 189.63% higher than the Specialty Business Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$2.15
EBITDA per share
$6.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
CPRT
P/E Ratio:
25.91
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29.94
P/E ratio is -13.45% lower than main peers & is -7.18% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $125.35
CPRT is -7.14% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.22
Price to sales ratio is 134.84% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.29
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 21.31% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
119.88%
Net income growth rate is -99.98% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
13.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-20.16%
Debt to assets ratio:
10.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-15.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -83.32% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
78.09
Interest coverage ratio is 2008.66% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.02%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.773
Statistical significance of correlation:
CPRT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.646
Stock price is 19.73% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.646
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.005
Kurtosis
8.541
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.053
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CPRT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
188%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
40.16%
Operating profit margin is 258.61% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
188%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.02%
Effective tax rate is 8.89% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.53%
Return on equity (ROE) is -14.06% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
22.00%
Return on assets (ROA) is 270.37% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
4.15
Current ratio is 107.26% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
77.6
Cash conversion cycle is 197.43% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
391.4K
Each employee generates 42% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
173.0K
Each employee generates 97% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
125.9K
Each employee generates 152% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
28.8K
Each employee generates 105% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
334.8K
Each employee generates 105% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CPRT
PACCAR INC (XNAS:PCAR)
VERISK ANALYTICS, INC. (XNAS:VRSK)
Fastenal Company (XNAS:FAST)
RYANAIR HOLDINGS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:RYAAY)
CINTAS CORPORATION (XNAS:CTAS)
EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC (XNAS:EXPD)
J. B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:JBHT)
PAYCHEX, INC. (XNAS:PAYX)
BNGOW
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
3.37B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.78B
1.58B
-
220.48M
220.48M
-
9.95M
230.43M
-
19.05M
132.28M
1.49B
1.35B
1.08B
1.34B
254.16M
1.08B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
32.05M
Differed Income Tax :
8.32M
Stock Based Compensation :
9.45M
Change in Working Capital :
2.33M
Accounts Receivables:
- 82676.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 22294.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
23.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
312.54M
Investments in PP&E:
- 64696.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/31/21
2022
Q1
1.30B
-
1.30B
563.17M
48.19M
130.04M
2.04B
2.44B
354.06M
43.91M
-
-
39.14M
2.88B
-
4.92B
411.25M
23.54M
37.18M
19.95M
37.18M
491.91M
509.86M
51.09M
633.12M
-
1.13B
24.00K
3.13B
- 111378.0K
776.86M
October 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
2.01B
3.79B
4.92B
-
533.40M
- 764977.0K
-
813.00K
- 63883.00K
- 157.00K
-
-
-
5.32M
5.17M
- 3710.00K
250.11M
1.30B
1.05B
312.54M
- 64696.00K
247.84M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CPRT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$154.18
$166.24
$179.25
$193.28
$208.40