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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Continental Resources, Inc. (XNYS:CLR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CLR
Name:
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:CLR)
Sector:
527.97M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. William Berry
Total Employees:
1,254
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 438.34% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.(CLR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
69.57
One Month Price Target:
$70.54
Six Month Price Target :
$75.38
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$81.19
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$69.13
Price Upper limit ($) :
$70.36
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$62.33
This week:
$53.39
This month :
$37.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
24.93B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
363.00M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.19%
-52.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$103.11
$87.47
$36.03
$51.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$82.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$79.04
$56.72
$60.10
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CLR
Sharpe Ratio:
4.65%
Comparison:
CLR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 1.28% higher than the industry
& ratio is 104.20% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CLR
Daily returns:
0.25%
Weekly returns:
1.25%
Monthly returns:
5.01%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -2.20% below industry average
Classification:
CLR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.82
Statistical test of Returns:
CLR has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.19%
Weekly Volatility:
11.60%
Monthly Volatility:
23.20%
Yearly Volatility:
80.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -58.14% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.40%
Weekly VaR:
-23.26%
Monthly VaR:
-46.52%
How Much Can the price of
CLR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.95
This translates to price declining to:
$10.44
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CLR is a 228.36% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 181.30% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.82% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CLR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.49
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.222
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.728
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.266
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.015
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.217
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.974
Beta is 25.95% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is 23.54% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
20.53%
Sustainable growth rate is -31.94% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.399
Alpha is -10.33% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2539% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CLR
Equity cost of capital:
0.202
Equity cost of capital is 19.16% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-3.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
-2.92%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-2.92%
WACC is -11.23% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$17.41
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.05
Annual revenue growth rate is -64.73% below industry average
EPS:
$5.50
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
29.70%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -7.86% lower than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.91
-
-
Debt per share
$18.14
EBITDA per share
$12.81
Valuation Analysis Today of
CLR
P/E Ratio:
8.64
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.96
P/E ratio is -56.70% lower than main peers & is -79.47% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $231.62
CLR is -69.96% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4
Price to sales ratio is -18.83% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.05
Price to free cash flow: 7.02
Price to free cash flow ratio is -62.66% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
73.31%
Net income growth rate is -89.69% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.15%
Dividend yeild: 1.24%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $0.86
Expected next dividend best case: $0.39
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.15
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 37.74%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 23/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.28
2021-11-12--$0.20
2021-05-07--$0.11
2022-02-18--$0.23
2021-08-09--$0.15
2020-02-06--$0.05
Dividend growth rate is -8.79% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
83.42%
Net debt to equity ratio:
83.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.47%
Net debt to assets ratio:
33.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -37.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-19.06
Interest coverage ratio is -340.34% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
23.53%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 15.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.463
Statistical significance of correlation:
CLR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is 17.36% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.094
Kurtosis
18.959
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.685
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CLR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
241%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
46.24%
Operating profit margin is -3461.04% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
241%
Effective Tax Rate:
-15.51%
Effective tax rate is -178.38% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.40%
Return on equity (ROE) is 198.33% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.19%
Return on assets (ROA) is 343.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.95
Current ratio is -52.48% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-3.4
Cash conversion cycle is -104.79% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.46%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
5.0M
Each employee generates -37% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
3.7M
Each employee generates 52% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates 282% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
421.0K
Each employee generates -557% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
14.0M
Each employee generates -557% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CLR
Coterra Energy Inc. (XNYS:CTRA)
PEMBINA PIPELINE CORPORATION (XNYS:PBA)
MARATHON OIL CORPORATION (XNYS:MRO)
Tenaris SA (XNYS:TS)
HALLIBURTON COMPANY (XNYS:HAL)
TARGA RESOURCES CORP. (XNYS:TRGP)
SASOL LIMITED (XNYS:SSL)
MAGELLAN MIDSTREAM PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:MMP)
OVINTIV INC. (XNYS:OVV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�46%
Buy�54%
Hold�29%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.32B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.30B
4.02B
-
255.62M
255.62M
-
3.03B
3.29B
-
- 243994.00K
3.30B
4.65B
2.92B
2.00B
2.64B
- 409174.00K
2.00B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
459.29M
Differed Income Tax :
94.98M
Stock Based Compensation :
29.26M
Change in Working Capital :
- 173825.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 481812.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1960.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
493.57M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.50B
Investments in PP&E:
- 976650.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 64928.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
4.24M
-
4.24M
1.88B
155.31M
28.88M
2.07B
17.49B
-
-
65.77M
-
47.10M
17.61B
-
19.67B
656.14M
6.89M
95.96M
-
1.51B
2.18B
6.58B
406.15M
9.23B
-
11.40B
3.63M
6.85B
-
1.03B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.38B
7.89B
19.30B
-
6.59B
6.6B
-
584.00K
- 1040994.00K
- 1164576.00K
-
- 125878.00K
- 83235.00K
893.44M
- 480247.00K
-
- 16624.00K
4.24M
20.87M
1.50B
- 976650.00K
527.97M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CLR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$101.76
$118.76
$138.60
$161.75
$188.77