_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Consolidated Edison, Inc. (XNYS:ED) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ED
Name:
CONSOLIDATED EDISON, INC. (XNYS:ED)
Sector:
- 389000.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Electric
CEO:
Mr. John McAvoy
Total Employees:
13,871
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -7.58% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CONSOLIDATED EDISON, INC.(ED) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED ELECTRIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
98.48
One Month Price Target:
$98.62
Six Month Price Target :
$99.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$100.14
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$98.21
Price Upper limit ($) :
$98.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$94.83
This week:
$90.31
This month :
$82.14
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
34.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
354.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.01%
-13.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$115.44
$107.65
$81.52
$89.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$105.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$103.46
$91.82
$93.50
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ED
Sharpe Ratio:
1.36%
Comparison:
ED, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 16.00% higher than the industry
& is -40.38% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ED
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.17%
Monthly returns:
0.67%
Yearly returns:
7.85%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 2.83% above industry average
Classification:
ED, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
ED has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.82%
Weekly Volatility:
4.08%
Monthly Volatility:
8.15%
Yearly Volatility:
28.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -29.21% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.71%
Weekly VaR:
-8.30%
Monthly VaR:
-16.59%
How Much Can the price of
ED
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-57.48%
This translates to price declining to:
$84.41
This translates to price declining to:
$41.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ED is a 17.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 0.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.16% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ED
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.25
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.501
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.708
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.128
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.317
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.536
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.514
Beta is -51.26% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.5
Beta is -49.88% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.30%
Sustainable growth rate is -91.49% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.032
Alpha is 151.27% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 204% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ED
Equity cost of capital:
0.049
Equity cost of capital is -25.97% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.04%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.04%
WACC is -21.09% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$39.65
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.69
Annual revenue growth rate is 84.58% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.33
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-2.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -67.73% lower than the Utilities�Regulated Electric industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 7.89%
Equity growth rate per share is 34.52% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$65.71
EBITDA per share
$13.61
Valuation Analysis Today of
ED
P/E Ratio:
21.56
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.54
P/E ratio is -12.13% lower than main peers & is -22.14% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $119.89
ED is -17.86% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $98.73
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $74.92
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.48
Price to sales ratio is -14.44% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.69
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-14.10%
Net income growth rate is 378.60% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 18.05%
Dividend yeild: 3.18%
Previous Dividend: $0.79
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.79
Previous Dividend: $3.13
Expected next dividend best case: $0.80
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.78
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.77
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.66%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 16/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 18/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-17--$0.79
2021-11-16--$0.78
2021-05-18--$0.78
2022-02-15--$0.79
2021-08-17--$0.78
2021-02-16--$0.78
Dividend growth rate is -166.00% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
114.33%
Net debt to equity ratio:
122.99%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.55%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.32%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.99
Interest coverage ratio is 93.63% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.31%
Annual debt growth is -91% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.11%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.473
Statistical significance of correlation:
ED has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.597
Stock price is -20.82% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.597
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.059
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.063
Kurtosis
21.377
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.427
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ED
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
219%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
19.66%
Operating profit margin is 68.98% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
219%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.65%
Effective tax rate is -17.33% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.50%
Return on equity (ROE) is -17.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.40%
Return on assets (ROA) is 3.75% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.01
Current ratio is -57.86% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
51.7
Cash conversion cycle is -45.23% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates -63% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
347.9K
Each employee generates -70% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
110.2K
Each employee generates -73% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 28.0K
Each employee generates -15% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.2M
Each employee generates -15% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ED
WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC. (XNYS:WEC)
Eversource Energy (XNYS:ES)
AMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:AWK)
PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INCORPORATED (XNYS:PEG)
EDISON INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:EIX)
FIRSTENERGY CORP. (XNYS:FE)
DTE ENERGY COMPANY (XNYS:DTE)
AMEREN CORPORATION (XNYS:AEE)
PPL CORPORATION (XNYS:PPL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�29%
Sell�21%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
14.06B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.37B
7.69B
-
-
-
-
4.92B
4.92B
57.00M
968.00M
2.06B
4.83B
2.76B
1.53B
1.59B
265.00M
1.53B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
529.00M
Differed Income Tax :
167.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 793000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 252000.00K
Other Working Capital:
295.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
16.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
473.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 10000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
108.00M
-
108.00M
3.24B
404.00M
1.71B
5.46B
49.82B
439.00M
1.27B
833.00M
-
5.91B
58.28B
-
63.74B
1.31B
1.87B
77.00M
313.00M
1.92B
5.42B
23.30B
7.30B
37.70B
-
43.11B
37.00M
11.77B
5.0M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
11.30B
20.38B
63.49B
-
25.17B
25.1B
-
- 942000.00K
- 952000.00K
- 26000.00K
-
-
- 276000.00K
- 168000.00K
- 470000.00K
-
- 949000.00K
197.00M
1.15B
473.00M
- 862000.00K
- 389000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ED
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$100.64
$102.33
$104.06
$105.81
$107.59